Hanson, Paul C. | Engineering Papers

DOE OSTI2024

Using Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning To Assess Patterns of Areal Change in Waterbodies across the Contiguous United States

Lake and reservoir surface areas are an important proxy for freshwater availability. Advancements in machine learning (ML) techniques and increased accessibility of remote sensing data products have enabled the analysis of waterbody surface area dynamics on broad spatial scales. However, interpreting the ML results remains a challenge. While ML provides important tools for identifying patterns, the resultant models do not include mechanisms. Thus, the “black-box” nature of ML techniques often lacks ecological meaning. Using ML, we characterized temporal patterns in lake and reservoir surface area change from 1984 to 2016 for 103,930 waterbodies in the contiguous United States. We then employed knowledge-guided machine learning (KGML) to classify all waterbodies into seven ecologically interpretable groups representing distinct patterns of surface area change over time. Many waterbodies were classified as having “no change” (43%), whereas the remaining 57% of waterbodies fell into other groups representing both linear and nonlinear patterns. This analysis demonstrates the potential of KGML not only for identifying ecologically relevant patterns of change across time but also for unraveling complex processes that underpin those changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning To Assess Patterns of Areal Change in Waterbodies across the Contiguous United States

Lake and reservoir surface areas are an important proxy for freshwater availability. Advancements in machine learning (ML) techniques and increased accessibility of remote sensing data products have enabled the analysis of waterbody surface area dynamics on broad spatial scales. However, interpreting the ML results remains a challenge. While ML provides important tools for identifying patterns, the resultant models do not include mechanisms. Thus, the “black-box” nature of ML techniques often lacks ecological meaning. Using ML, we characterized temporal patterns in lake and reservoir surface area change from 1984 to 2016 for 103,930 waterbodies in the contiguous United States. We then employed knowledge-guided machine learning (KGML) to classify all waterbodies into seven ecologically interpretable groups representing distinct patterns of surface area change over time. Many waterbodies were classified as having “no change” (43%), whereas the remaining 57% of waterbodies fell into other groups representing both linear and nonlinear patterns. This analysis demonstrates the potential of KGML not only for identifying ecologically relevant patterns of change across time but also for unraveling complex processes that underpin those changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗