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Habte, Aron

Publications and source records attributed to Habte, Aron.

At least 37 records · Page 2
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DOE OSTI2024

Introducing the Baseline Performance Reference (BPR) for Irradiance in PV System Applications

Photovoltaic (PV) reference cells, modules, and arrays respond in a complex manner to the many variables that define their operating environment. PV reference cells for irradiance measurement have similarities but also differences to operational PV modules. For this reason, a more neutral and a well-defined generic PV reference cell is needed, whose characteristics are close enough to most operational PV devices to make stable performance indicators possible but whose characteristics are not necessarily identical to any of them. This poster describes a new well-defined reference quantity for outdoor PV measurements, called the baseline performance reference (BPR).

baseline performance reference↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Reference Cell Performance Using Measured and Modeled Spectral Data

The performance of several silicon-based reference cells is examined under clear skies on a horizontal and two-axis tracking surface during the winter of 2022. The ratio of the calculated reference cell output to the measured reference cell output is examined. For each reference cell, when using the measured spectral data, the ratio of the estimated to measured output varies by less than +/-0.6% at the P95 level. The analysis was also done using modeled spectral values obtained from the Bird spectrl2 model. The ratio between the estimated reference cell output using the modeled spectral values to the measured reference cell output varies by +/-1.1% at the P95 level.

angle of incidence↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Integrating Data Quality Assessments and Radiometer Uncertainty for Determining the Expanded Uncertainty of Three-Component Solar Radiation Measurements

Accurate solar irradiance data are fundamental for determining the design and performance characteristics of photovoltaic systems. The uncertainty of solar irradiance measurements depends on many factors including radiometer design, calibration, installation, maintenance, and operational environment. The key contributors to this uncertainty can be classified as the measurement uncertainty of a particular radiometer and the operational uncertainty determined for the time of measurement. Radiometer measurement uncertainty estimates (U R ) can be based on well-established methods used as part of the radiometer calibration process. Estimates of operational uncertainties (U o ) require consideration of additional site-specific factors that affect data quality. A method is needed for establishing the accuracy of solar irradiance data by integrating an existing data quality process and measurement uncertainty estimates for specific radiometers. An algorithm has been developed to integrate data quality analyses and measurement uncertainty estimates for three-component solar irradiance data: global horizontal (total hemispheric) irradiance, direct normal (beam) irradiance, and diffuse horizontal (sky) irradiance collected at one- to 60-minute intervals. The algorithm has been tested using one-minute irradiance measurements. The goal of the project is to distribute a user-friendly software package based on the new algorithm.

data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2023

Radiometric Standards and Best Practices: Recent Progress

International standards and best practices for solar resource assessments provide assurance for traceable measurements associated with a low uncertainty. This benefits the solar energy industry by reducing the investment risks through heightened confidence in the solar resource information. NREL, in collaboration with international organizations, such as subcommittees G03 of ASTM (Radiometry) and TC180/SC1 of ISO (Climate measurement and data), recently revised some standards that are widely used by the solar industry. These include radiometric standards that assist in (i) maintaining calibration traceability; (ii) uncertainty analysis; (iii) measurement quality assurance, and (iv) establishing reference spectral irradiance distributions. The latter are widely used by the solar community to evaluate the actual absorptance, reflectance, and transmittance of solar energy materials, or the performance of solar energy devices and systems, relative to standard conditions. This paper provides a summary of the recent changes brought to these standards as a way to better support the solar energy industry.

industries↗
DOE OSTI2023

What's New in the NSRDB

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) provides solar resource data across the globe at a high temporal and spatial resolution. This data is primarily used in solar energy modeling. The NSRDB is updated annually for the United States and North, Central and South America and the data is currently available from 1998-2021. In 2022 the NSRDB was updated using the latest version of the underlying Physical Solar Model (PSM). This update includes improved surface albedo and gap-filling of cloud properties. The inclusion of these updates reduced the uncertainty in the data compared to previous versions of the NSRDB. The Himawari and Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage (IODC) satellites were added to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and made our coverage global. While standard data from the GOES continues to be served at an hourly 4km x 4km resolution, full resolution data has also been made available to the user. The NSRDB now contains over 200Tb of data with nearly 40Tb being added annually. We provide significant flexibility for data download depending on the amount of data required by the users. In this paper we provide an update on the current status on the NSRDB.

photovoltaic systems↗
DOE OSTI2023

NSRDB (National Solar Radiation Database Software) [SWR-23-77]

This repository contains all of the methods for the NSRDB data processing pipeline. The NSRDB is a serially complete collection of hourly and half-hourly values of meteorological data and the three most common measurements of solar radiation: global horizontal, direct normal and diffuse horizontal irradiance.

Benton, Brandon↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regridding uncertainty for statistical downscaling of solar radiation

Abstract. Initial steps in statistical downscaling involve being able to compare observed data from regional climate models (RCMs). This prediction requires (1) regridding RCM outputs from their native grids and at differing spatial resolutions to a common grid in order to be comparable to observed data and (2) bias correcting RCM data, for example via quantile mapping, for future modeling and analysis. The uncertainty associated with (1) is not always considered for downstream operations in (2). This work examines this uncertainty, which is not often made available to the user of a regridded data product. This analysis is applied to RCM solar radiation data from the NA-CORDEX (North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) data archive and observed data from the National Solar Radiation Database housed at the National Renewable Energy Lab. A case study of the mentioned methods over California is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integration of a physics-based direct normal irradiance ($\mathrm{DNI}$) model to enhance the National Solar Radiation Database ($\mathrm{NSRDB}$)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is an extensively used dataset that furnishes satellite-retrieved solar resource data across the United States and an expanding list of other countries. Although the NSRDB uses a physical model to compute global horizontal irradiance (GHI), it currently employs an empirical approach based on surface observations to estimate cloudy-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). Recently, a new physics-based approach, known as the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI), was developed to improve DNI forecasting. FARMS-DNI integrates direct and scattered solar radiances within the circumsolar region, resulting in improved day-ahead forecasting of DNI by incorporating it into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar). This study incorporates FARMS-DNI into the NSRDB algorithm to produce high-spatiotemporal-resolution DNI data from satellite data. The accuracy of the NSRDB based on FARMS-DNI is analyzed using surface observations from 19 sites situated within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Surface Radiation Budget (SURFRAD) and Solar Radiation (SOLRAD) networks, the University of Oregon (UO) network, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) network, and at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results demonstrate that FARMS-DNI reduces the significant overestimation of DNI in the conventional NSRDB at all surface sites, particularly in cloud overcast conditions classified using both satellite retrievals and surface observations. Consequently, this new model can effectively improve the overall accuracy of the NSRDB. The results also suggest that further improvement of DNI estimates at individual time steps, however, requires advanced satellite techniques and precise identification of clouds and retrieval of cloud properties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

NREL Comparison of Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometers, InfraRed Integrating Sphere, and Pyrgeometers Traceable to World Infrared Standard Group: September 25-October 6, 2023

The comparison of the absolute cavity pyrgeometers (ACPs) with the InfraRed Integrating Sphere (IRIS), Eppley Precision Infrared Radiometer (PIR) pyrgeometers, and Kipp & Zonen (KZ) pyrgeometers traceable to the World Infrared Standard Group (WISG) was held during NREL ACP and IRIS Comparisons (NAIC) from September 25 to October 6, 2023. Data from all instruments was collected during nighttime clear sky conditions only. The irradiance measured by the ACPs is collected in 30 seconds intervals during the measurement period of two hours, and 10 seconds intervals during the calibration period of 6 minutes. During the comparison, the average (av) irradiance difference measured by ACPs and IRIS9 varied from -0.75 W/m 2 to 0.76 W/m 2 , standard deviation (sd) from 0.78 W/m 2 to 1.04 W/m 2 , and uncertainty U95 from 1.96 W/m 2 to 2.07 W/m 2 . The average irradiance difference measured by ACP95F3 minus the irradiance measured by all pyrgeometers varied from 1.64 to 3.96 W/m 2 , sd from 1.70 W/m 2 to 1.86 W/m 2 , and uncertainty U 95 from 3.78 W/m 2 to 5.42W/m 2 . Note that from September 25th at 18:31 to September 29 th at 5:30 ACP96F3 irradiance is calculated using Bruce, et al 2023 method.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

NREL Pyrheliometer Comparisons: September 23 - September 28, 2023 (NPC-2023)

Accurate measurements of direct normal (beam) solar irradiance from pyrheliometers are important for developing and deploying solar energy conversion systems, for improving our understanding of Earth's energy budget for climate change studies, and for other science and technology applications involving solar flux. Providing these measurements places many demands on the quality system used by the operator of commercially available radiometers. Maintaining accurate radiometer calibrations that are traceable to an international standard is the first step in producing research-quality solar irradiance measurements. In 1977, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established the World Radiometric Reference (WRR) as the international standard for the measurement of direct normal solar irradiance (Frohlich 1991). The WRR is an internationally recognized, detector-based measurement standard determined by the collective performance of six electrically self-calibrated absolute cavity radiometers comprising the World Standard Group (WSG). Various countries, including the United States, have contributed these specialized radiometers to the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos - World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) to establish the WSG. As with all measurement systems, Absolute Cavity Radiometers (ACR) are subject to performance changes over time. Therefore, PMOD/WRC in Davos, Switzerland, hosts an quinquennial International Pyrheliometer Comparison (IPC) event for transferring the WRR to participating radiometers by invitation. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has represented the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in each IPC since 1980. And NREL has developed and maintained a select group of absolute cavity radiometers with direct calibration traceability to the WRR, and it uses these reference instruments to calibrate pyrheliometers and pyranometers using the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 17025-accredited Broadband Outdoor Radiometer Calibration (BORCAL) process (Reda et al. 2008). To fill the gap between each IPC, NREL pyrheliometer comparisons (NPCs) are held annually at the Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) in Golden, Colorado. Open to all ACR owners and operators, each NPC provides an opportunity to determine the unique WRR transfer factor (WRR-TF) for each participating pyrheliometer. By adjusting all subsequent pyrheliometer measurements by the appropriate WRR-TF, the solar irradiance data are traceable to the WRR.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Baseline Performance Reference for Irradiance in PV System Applications

This report proposes the definition of a new baseline performance reference (BPR). The definition goes beyond existing standards pertaining to photovoltaic (PV) reference cells and devices to define the response under all possible operating conditions in the field. Field evaluations using BPR devices will be more sensitive to performance anomalies than pyranometers because they track PV system power output more closely. At the same time, they will be able to detect a broader range of performance anomalies than traditional matched reference devices, which might have matching defects. The BPR definition also opens the door to new practices in resource assessment and yield prediction. Solar resource data can be collected or modeled and validated directly as BPR irradiance, and PV system simulations based on BPR irradiance need fewer assumptions and less processing to obtain the effective irradiance on modules. As a result, lower uncertainty in yield assessments can be expected.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clear-Sky Probability for the 2023 Annular Solar Eclipse and the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse Using the NREL National Solar Radiation Database

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and collaborators have created a clear-sky probability analysis to help guide viewers to the 2023 annular solar eclipse and the 2024 total solar eclipse. Using cloud and solar data from the NREL National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the analysis provides cloudless-sky probabilities specific to the date, time, and location of each eclipse with a 4-km resolution. Though not intended to be an eclipse weather forecast, the detailed maps can help guide eclipse enthusiasts to likely optimal viewing locations. Additionally, high-resolution data are presented for the centerline of the path of each eclipse, representing the likelihood for cloudless skies and atmospheric clarity. The NSRDB provides industry, academia, and other stakeholders with high-resolution solar irradiance data to support feasibility analyses for photovoltaic and concentrating solar power generation projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing the Calibration History of Radiometers for Determining Optimal Calibration Day(s)

This study investigates the effects of calibrating radiometers using one day or multiple cloudless days as recommended by ASTM and ISO standards. The results demonstrate good responsivity agreement with estimated uncertainty error bars over the years for various radiometers under various Broadband Outdoor Radiometer Calibration (BORCAL) events at both the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Southern Great Plains facility. The BORCAL method appears to justify the use of a single calibration day with enough data points to attain repeatable calibration results.

BORCAL↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing the Proof of Concept for the SERI QC Flag Translation

SERI QC is a robust solar data quality assessment software tool that has been in continuous use for more than three decades. This report, the second of six in the Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration project, develops the proof of concept, including programming in C and a collection of spreadsheet tools, for estimating the operational uncertainty from three-component solar irradiance measurements using information available from SERI QC. The report establishes a field reference for determining the operational uncertainty for each irradiance component based on the SERI QC coupling. Results demonstrate that the operational uncertainty estimates based on global irradiance best represent the collective results for all sky conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗