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Greene, David L

Publications and source records attributed to Greene, David L.

6 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Survey Evidence on the Willingness of U.S. Consumers to Pay for Automotive Fuel Economy

Prospect theory, which was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002, holds that human beings faced with a risky bet will tend to value potential losses about twice as much as potential gains. Previous research has demonstrated that prospect theory could be sufficient to explain an energy paradox in the market for automotive fuel economy. This paper analyzes data from four random sample surveys of 1,000 U.S. households each in 2004, 2011, 2012 and 2013. Households were asked about willingness to pay for future fuel savings as well as the annual fuel savings necessary to justify a given upfront payment. Payback periods inferred from household responses are consistent over time and across different formulations of questions. Mean calculated payback periods are short, about 3 years, but there is substantial dispersion among individual responses. Calculated payback periods do not appear to be correlated with the attributes of respondents. Respondents were able to quantitatively describe their uncertainty about both vehicle fuel economy and future fuel prices. Simulation of loss averse behavior based on this stated uncertainty illustrate how loss aversion could lead consumers to substantially undervalue future fuel savings relative to their expected value.

energy efficience↗
DOE OSTI2013

Hydrogen Vehicles: Impacts of DOE Technical Targets on Market Acceptance and Societal Benefits

Hydrogen vehicles (H2V), including H2 internal combustion engine, fuel cell and fuel cell plugin hybrid, could greatly reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector. The U.S. Department of Energy has adopted targets for vehicle component technologies to address key technical barriers towidespread commercialization of H2Vs. This study estimates the market acceptance of H2Vs and the resulting societal benefits and subsidy in 41 scenarios that reflect a wide range of progress in meeting these technical targets. Important results include: (1) H2Vs could reach 20e70% market shares by 2050, depending on progress in achieving the technical targets.With a basic hydrogen infrastructure (w5% hydrogen availability), the H2V market share is estimated to be 2e8%. Fuel cell and hydrogen costs are the most important factors affecting the long-term market shares of H2Vs. (2) Meeting all technical targets on time could result in about an 80% cut in petroleumuse and a 62% (or 72% with aggressive electricity de-carbonization) reduction in GHG in 2050. (3) The required hydrogen infrastructure subsidy is estimated to range from $22 to $47 billion and the vehicle subsidy from $4 to $17 billion. (4) Long-term H2V market shares, societal benefits and hydrogen subsidies appear to be highly robust against delay in one target, if all other targets are met on time. R&D diversification could provide insurance for greater societal benefits. (5) Both H2Vs and plug-in electric vehicles could exceed 50% market shares by 2050, if all targets are met on time. The overlapping technology, the fuel cell plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, appears attractive both in the short and long runs, but for different reasons.

alternative fuel vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2013

Analyzing the Sensitivity of Hydrogen Vehicle Sales to Consumers' Preferences

The success of hydrogen vehicles will depend on consumer behavior as well as technology, energy prices and public policy. This study examines the sensitivity of the future market shares of hydrogen-powered vehicles to alternative assumptions about consumers preferences. The Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies model was used to project future market shares. The model has 1,458 market segments, differentiated by travel behavior, geography, and tolerance to risk, among other factors, and it estimates market shares for twenty advanced power-train technologies. The market potential of hydrogen vehicles is most sensitive to the improvement of drive train technology, especially cost reduction. The long-run market success of hydrogen vehicles is less sensitive to the price elasticity of vehicle choice, how consumers evaluate future fuel costs, the importance of fuel availability and limited driving range. The importance of these factors will likely be greater in the early years following initial commercialization of hydrogen vehicles.

hydrogen vehicles↗
DOE OSTI2012

Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗