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Gray, Lesley J.

Publications and source records attributed to Gray, Lesley J..

6 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. Furthermore, the models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific sector subtropical jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Response of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models

We compare the response of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to a warming climate in eleven atmosphere general circulation models that performed time–slice simulations for present–day, doubled, and quadrupled CO 2 climates. No consistency was found among the models for the QBO period response, with the period decreasing by 8 months in some models and lengthening by up to 13 months in others in the doubled CO 2 simulations. In the quadrupled CO 2 simulations, a reduction in QBO period of 14 months was found in some models, whereas in several others the tropical oscillation no longer resembled the present–day QBO, although it could still be identified in the deseasonalized zonal mean zonal wind timeseries. In contrast, all the models projected a decrease in the QBO amplitude in a warmer climate with the largest relative decrease near 60 hPa. In simulations with doubled and quadrupled CO 2 , the multi–model mean QBO amplitudes decreased by 36 and 51%, respectively. Across the models the differences in the QBO period response were most strongly related to how the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity responded to the increases in CO 2 amounts. Likewise it was found that the robust decrease in QBO amplitudes was correlated across the models to changes in vertical residual velocity, parametrized gravity wave momentum fluxes, and to some degree the resolved upward wave flux. Here, we argue that uncertainty in the representation of the parameterized gravity waves is the most likely cause of the spread among the eleven models in the QBO's response to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

The role of the seasonal cycle in the quasi-biennial oscillation of ozone

The evidence for seasonal synchronization of the ozone quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is reviewed, showing how this behavior is not expected on the basis of QBO transport alone but may arise due to the seasonal cycle. Near the equator, the ozone QBO is closely tied to the dynamical QBO and exhibits the same period as that oscillation. Maximum column ozone is attained soon after the transition to westerlies at 50 mb. In the subtropics, the ozone QBO is strongly tied to the seasonal cycle, with anomalies centered in the winter-spring season irrespective of QBO phase. These anomalies result from the interaction of the annual cycle and the QBO. Numerical model results are reported which establish that hemispheric asymmetry in the ozone QBO does not require seasonal asymmetries in the strength or location of the Hadley circulation. The fundamental cause of hemispheric asymmetry in the subtropical ozone QBO is the timing of equatorial, ozone anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle.

Gray, Lesley J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Report of the 1988 2-D Intercomparison Workshop, chapter 3

Several factors contribute to the errors encountered. With the exception of the line-by-line model, all of the models employ simplifying assumptions that place fundamental limits on their accuracy and range of validity. For example, all 2-D modeling groups use the diffusivity factor approximation. This approximation produces little error in tropospheric H2O and CO2 cooling rates, but can produce significant errors in CO2 and O3 cooling rates at the stratopause. All models suffer from fundamental uncertainties in shapes and strengths of spectral lines. Thermal flux algorithms being used in 2-D tracer tranport models produce cooling rates that differ by as much as 40 percent for the same input model atmosphere. Disagreements of this magnitude are important since the thermal cooling rates must be subtracted from the almost-equal solar heating rates to derive the net radiative heating rates and the 2-D model diabatic circulation. For much of the annual cycle, the net radiative heating rates are comparable in magnitude to the cooling rate differences described. Many of the models underestimate the cooling rates in the middle and lower stratosphere. The consequences of these errors for the net heating rates and the diabatic circulation will depend on their meridional structure, which was not tested here. Other models underestimate the cooling near 1 mbar. Suchs errors pose potential problems for future interactive ozone assessment studies, since they could produce artificially-high temperatures and increased O3 destruction at these levels. These concerns suggest that a great deal of work is needed to improve the performance of thermal cooling rate algorithms used in the 2-D tracer transport models.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Odd nitrogen during the MAP/GLOBUS 1983 campaign - Theoretical considerations

The paper reviews the chemical processes involved in the formation and destruction of active nitrogen in the stratosphere and indicates that transport processes play an important role in the behavior of these species. Vertical profiles measured during the MAP/GLOBUS 1983 campaign are compared to distributions calculated by a number of one-dimensional models. An intercomparison between six of these models shows that, if some quantitative differences attributed to different model input are noticeable, the same type of behavior is predicted for NO and NO2 by all models. Although the observed concentration of species belonging to the odd nitrogen family should be highly variable, as a result of dynamical disturbances, most data obtained during the campaign appear to be consistent with the chemical scheme currently used in photochemical models.

Brasseur, Guy↗