DOE OSTI2014
Subsurface modeling applications typically neglect uncertainty in the conceptual models, past or future scenarios, and attribute most or all uncertainty to errors in model parameters. In this contribution, uncertainty in technetium-99 transport in a heterogeneous, deep vadose zone is explored with respect to the conceptual model using a next generation user environment called Akuna. Akuna provides a range of tools to manage environmental modeling projects, from managing simulation data to visualizing results from high-performance computational simulators. Core toolsets accessible through the user interface include model setup, grid generation, parameter estimation, and uncertainty quantification. The BC Cribs site at Hanford in southeastern Washington State is used to demonstrate Akuna capabilities. At the BC Cribs site, conceptualization of the system is highly uncertain because only sparse information is available for the geologic conceptual model, the physical and chemical properties of the sediments, and the history of waste disposal operations. Using the Akuna toolset to perform an analysis of conservative solute transport, significant prediction uncertainty in simulated concentrations is demonstrated by conceptual model variation. This demonstrates that conceptual model uncertainty is an important consideration in sparse data environments such as BC Cribs. It is also demonstrated that Akuna and the underlying toolset provides an integrated modeling environment that streamlines model setup, parameter optimization, and uncertainty analyses for high-performance computing applications.