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Goldenfeld, Nigel

Publications and source records attributed to Goldenfeld, Nigel.

Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus, and an endemic state

It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, that is, constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models, we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic, in broad agreement with empirical data. Our stochastic social activity model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of a long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to an endemic state.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity

Significance Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. Here, we develop a general approach bridging across these timescales and demonstrate how to incorporate population heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models. We demonstrate that a fragile state of transient collective immunity emerges during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic, leading to suppression of individual epidemic waves. However, this state is not an indication of lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to stochastic changes in individual social activity. Parameters of transient collective immunity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in several US locations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence for photoinduced sliding of the charge-order condensate in La 1.875 Ba 0.125 CuO 4

In this study, we use femtosecond resonant soft x-ray scattering to measure the ultrafast optical melting of charge-order correlations in La 1.875 Ba 0.125 CuO 4 . By analyzing both the energy-resolved and the energy-integrated order-parameter dynamics, we find evidence of a short-lived nonequilibrium state, the features of which are compatible with a sliding charge-density wave coherently set in motion by the pump. This transient state exhibits shifts in both the quasielastic line energy and its wave vector, as expected from a classical Doppler effect. The wave-vector change is indeed found to directly follow the pump propagation direction. Finally, these results demonstrate the existence of sliding charge-order behavior in an unconventional charge-density wave system and underscore the power of ultrafast optical excitation as a tool to coherently manipulate electronic condensates.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Dendritic Growth with Fluid Flow for Pure Materials

We have developed a three-dimensional, adaptive, parallel finite element code to examine solidification of pure materials under conditions of forced flow. We have examined the effect of undercooling, surface tension anisotropy and imposed flow velocity on the growth. The flow significantly alters the growth process, producing dendrites that grow faster, and with greater tip curvature, into the flow. The selection constant decreases slightly with flow velocity in our calculations. The results of the calculations agree well with the transport solution of Saville and Beaghton at high undercooling and high anisotropy. At low undercooling, significant deviations are found. We attribute this difference to the influence of other parts of the dendrite, removed from the tip, on the flow field.

Jeong, Jun-Ho↗

Adaptive-Grid Methods for Phase Field Models of Microstructure Development

Modeling solidification microstructures has become an area of intense study in recent years. The properties of large scale cast products, ranging from automobile engine blocks to aircraft components and other industrial applications, are strongly dependent on the physics that occur at the mesoscopic and microscopic length scales during solidification. The predominant morphology found in solidification microstructures is the dendrite, a tree-like pattern of solid around which solidification proceeds. The microscopic properties of cast products are determined by the length scales of these dendrites, and their associated segregation profiles. For this reason understanding the mechanisms for pattern selection in dendritic growth has attracted a great deal of interest from the experimental and theoretical communities. In particular, a great deal of research has been undertaken to understand such issues as dendrite morphology, shape and growth speed. Experiments on dendrite evolution in pure materials by Glicksman and coworkers on succinonitrile (SCN), and more recently pivalic acid (PVA), as well as other transparent analogs of metals, have provided tests of theories for dendritic growth, and have stimulated considerable theoretical progress. These experiments have clearly demonstrated that in certain parameter ranges the physics of the dendrite tip can be characterized by a steady value for the dendrite tip velocity, radius of curvature and shape. Away from the tip, the time-dependent dendrite exhibits a characteristic sidebranching as it propagates, which is not yet well understood. These experiments are performed by observing individual dendrites growing into an undercooled melt. The experiments are characterized by the dimensionless undercooling. Most experiments are performed at low undercooling.

Dantzig, Jonathan A.↗

Phase Field Modeling of Microstructure Development in Microgravity

This newly funded project seeks to extend our NASA-sponsored project on modeling of dendritic microstructures to facilitate collaboration between our research group and those of other NASA investigators. In our ongoing program, we have applied advanced computational techniques to study microstructural evolution in dendritic solidification, for both pure isolated dendrites and directionally solidified alloys. This work has enabled us to compute dendritic microstructures using both realistic material parameters and experimentally relevant processing conditions, thus allowing for the first time direct comparison of phase field computations with laboratory observations. This work has been well received by the materials science and physics communities, and has led to several opportunities for collaboration with scientists working on experimental investigations of pattern selection and segregation in solidification. While we have been able to pursue these collaborations to a limited extent, with some important findings, this project focuses specifically on those collaborations. We have two target collaborations: with Prof. Glicksman's group working on the Isothermal Dendritic Growth Experiment (IDGE), and with Prof. Poirier's group studying directional solidification in Pb-Sb alloys. These two space experiments match well with our two thrusts in modeling, one for pure materials, as in the IDGE, and the other directional solidification. Such collaboration will benefit all of the research groups involved, and will provide for rapid dissemination of the results of our work where it will have significant impact.

Dantzig, Jonathan A.↗

Adaptive-Grid Methods for Phase Field Models of Microstructure Development

In this work the authors show how the phase field model can be solved in a computationally efficient manner that opens a new large-scale simulational window on solidification physics. Our method uses a finite element, adaptive-grid formulation, and exploits the fact that the phase and temperature fields vary significantly only near the interface. We illustrate how our method allows efficient simulation of phase-field models in very large systems, and verify the predictions of solvability theory at intermediate undercooling. We then present new results at low undercoolings that suggest that solvability theory may not give the correct tip speed in that regime. We model solidification using the phase-field model used by Karma and Rappel.

Provatas, Nikolas↗