Distributed Wind Diffusion Model Overview (Presentation)
Distributed wind market demand is driven by current and future wind price and performance, along with several non-price market factors like financing terms, retail electricity rates and rate structures, future wind incentives, and others. We developed a new distributed wind technology diffusion model for the contiguous United States that combines hourly wind speed data at 200m resolution with high resolution electricity load data for various consumer segments (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial), electricity rates and rate structures for utility service territories, incentive data, and high resolution tree cover. The model first calculates the economics of distributed wind at high spatial resolution for each market segment, and then uses a Bass diffusion framework to estimate the evolution of market demand over time. The model provides a fundamental new tool for characterizing how distributed wind market potential could be impacted by a range of future conditions, such as electricity price escalations, improvements in wind generator performance and installed cost, and new financing structures. This paper describes model methodology and presents sample results for distributed wind market potential in the contiguous U.S. through 2050.