Engineering topics
Giorgini, Jon D.
Publications and source records attributed to Giorgini, Jon D..
Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis
Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.
Near-Earth Asteroid 2005 CR37: Radar Images and Photometry of a Candidate Contact Binary
Arecibo (2380 MHz, 13 cm) radar observations of 2005 CR37 provide detailed images of a candidate contact binary: a 1.8-km-long, extremely bifurcated object. Although the asteroid's two lobes are round, there are regions of modest topographic relief, such as an elevated, 200-m-wide facet, that suggest that the lobes are geologically more complex than either coherent fragments or homogeneous rubble piles. Since January 1999, about 9% of NEAs larger than approx.200 m imaged by radar can be described as candidate contact binaries.
Radar Detection of Near-Earth Asteroids 2062 Aten, 2101 Adonis, 3103 Eger, 4544 Xanthus, and 1992 QN
We describe Doppler-only radar observations of near-Earth asteroids 2062 Aten, 2101 Adonis, 3103 Eger, 4544 Xanthus, and 1992 QN that were obtained at Arecibo and Goldstone between 1984 and 1996. Estimates of the echo spectral bandwidths, radar cross sections, and circular polarization ratios of these objects constrain their pole-on breadths, radar albedos, surface roughnesses, taxonomic classes, rotation periods, and spin vectors.
Radar Observations of Asteroid 1620 Geographos
Goldstone radar observations of Geographos from August 28 through September 2, 1994 yield over 400 delay-Doppler images whose linear spatial resolutions range from approx. 75 to approx. 151 in, and 138 pairs of dual-polarization (OC, SC) spectra with one-dimensional resolution of 103 m. Each data type provides thorough rotational coverage. The images contain an intrinsic north/south ambiguity, but the equatorial view allows accurate determination of the shape of the radar-facing part of the asteroid's pole-on silhouette at any rotation phase. Sums of co-registered images that cover nearly a full rotation have defined the extremely elongated shape of that silhouette. Here we present individual images and co-registered sums over approx. 30 deg of rotation phase that show the silhouette's structural characteristics in finer detail and also reveal numerous contrast features "inside" the silhouette. Those features include several candidate craters as well as indications of other sorts of large-scale topographic relief, including a prominent central indentation. Protuberances at the asteroid's ends may be related to the pattern of ejecta removal and deposition caused by the asteroid's gravity field. The asteroid's surface is homogeneous and displays only modest roughness at centimeter-to-meter scales. Our estimates of radar cross section and the currently available constraints on the asteroid's dimensions are consistent with a near-surface bulk density between 2 and 3 g/cu cm. The delay-Doppler trajectory of Geographos' center of mass has been determined to about 200 m on August 28 and to about 100 m on August 31, an improvement of two orders of magnitude over pre-observation ephemerides.
Radar Observations of Asteroid 1620 Geographos
Goldstone radar observations of Geographos from August 28 through September 2, 1994 yield over 400 delay-Doppler images whose linear spatial resolutions range from approximately 75 - 151 m, and 138 pairs of dual-polarization (OC, SC) spectra with one-dimensional resolution of 103 m. Each data type provides thorough rotational coverage. The images contain an intrinsic north/south ambiguity, but the equatorial view allows accurate determination of the shape of the radar-facing part of the asteroid's pole-on silhouette at any rotation phase. Sums of co-registered images that cover nearly a full rotation have defined the extremely elongated shape of that silhouette (S. J. Ostro, K. D. Rosema, R. S. Hudson, R. F. Jurgens, J. D. Giorgini, R. Winkler, D. K. Yeomans, D. Choate, R. Rose, M. A. Slade, S. D. Howard, and D. L. Mitchell 1995, Nature 375, 474-477). Here we present individual images and co-registered sums over approximately 30 deg of rotation phase that show the silhouette's structural characteristics in finer detail and also reveal numerous contrast features "inside" the silhouette. Those features include several candidate craters as well as indications of other sorts of large-scale topographic relief, including a prominent central indentation. Protuberances at the asteroid's ends may be related to the pattern of ejecta removal and deposition caused by the asteroid's gravity field. The asteroid's surface is homogeneous and displays only modest roughness at centimeter-to-meter scales. Our estimates of radar cross section and the currently available constraints on the asteroid's dimensions are consistent with a near-surface bulk density between 2 and 3 g/cc. The delay-Doppler trajectory of Geographos' center of mass has been determined to about 200 m on August 28 and to about 100 m on August 31, an improvement of two orders of magnitude over pre-observation ephemerides.
Radar Observations of Asteroids 1 Ceres, 2 Pallas, and 4 Vesta
Asteroids 1 Ceres, 2 Pallas, and 4 Vesta were observed with the 13-cm Arecibo radar and the 3.5-cm Goldstone radar during several apparitions between 1981 and 1995. These observations help to characterize the objects' surface properties. Echoes from Ceres and Pallas are approximately 95% polarized (muon(sub C) = sigm(sub SC)/sigma(sub OC) equivalent to 0.05) in the sense expected for specular (mirror) reflection yet broadly distributed in Doppler frequency, thus revealing surfaces that are smoother than the Moon at decimeter scales but much rougher (rms slopes > 20 deg) on larger scales. Slopes on Ceres appear to be somewhat higher when viewed with the 3.5-cm wavelength, a trend that is observed for the terrestrial planets and the Moon. In contrast, echoes from Vesta are significantly depolarized, indicating substantial near-surface complexity at scales near 13 cm (muon(sub C) = 0.24 +/- 0.04) and 3.5 cm (muon(sub C) = 0.32 +/- 0.04), which is probably a consequence of Vesta's relatively strong basaltic surface material and may be a signature of large impact features inferred to be present on the surface. The low radar albedos of Ceres (circumflex-sigma(sub C) = 0.042 +/- 0.006) and Pallas (circumfle-sigma(sub C) = 0.075 +/- 0.011) are in the range expected for surfaces with a carbonaceous chondrite mineralogy. Pallas' distinctly higher albedo implies a approximately 35% higher surface density, which could result from a lower regolith porosity and/or a higher specific gravity (zero-porosity density). Given a porosity of 45%, the specific gravities of the surface materials on Ceres and Pallas would be approximately 2.3 and approximately 3.0 g/cc, respectively, which would be consistent with (1) the presence of an additional silicate component on Pallas' surface (as inferred from spectroscopic observations) and (2) recent mass estimates, which suggest a higher mean (volume-averaged) density for Pallas than for Ceres.
Radar Images of Asteroid 4179 Toutatis
Delay-Doppler images of the Earth-crossing asteroid 4179 Toutatis achieve resolutions as fine as 125 nanoseconds (19 meters in range) and 8.3 millihertz (0.15 millimeter per second in radial velocity) and place hundreds to thousands of pixels on the asteroid, which appears to be several kilometers long, topographically bifurcated, and heavily cratered. The image sequence reveals Toutatis to be in an extremely slow, non-principal axis rotation state.
(abstract) Navigating through the Venus Atmosphere
This paper presents the problems and challenges of the Magellan Navigation Team. The challenges are: 1) to predict the periapsis time to an accuracy of less than 100 seconds, 2) to accurately predict the dynamic pressure incurred by the spacecraft, 3) to model and to generate this prediction in a timely manner, 4) to provide navigation support 7 days per week for 70 days with 3 navigators and one graphic specialist to generate a daily package for presentation and display. The problems encountered by the Navigation Team in order to meet the above challenges are: 1) the uncertainty in the Venus atmosphere model, 2) the uncertainty in the Venus gravity model, 3) the uncertainty in predicting the attitude control thruster firing, 4) the sparse amount of radiometric tracking data, 5) the radiometric data editing is complicated by the effects of the Venus atmosphere fluctuations.
Magellan navigation using X-band differenced Doppler during Venus mapping phase
This paper describes Magellan navigation procedures and performance during the first 1.5 years of mapping. It presents the results of studies comparing several orbit determination methods performed with and without X-band (8.4 GHz) differenced Doppler tracking data. X-band differenced Doppler has been used as a primary navigation data-type for the first time. It has been found to be a significant aid in efficiently meeting orbiter navigation requirements during the Magellan spacecraft's Venus radar-mapping phase.