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Garcia, Rolando R.

Publications and source records attributed to Garcia, Rolando R..

At least 19 records

Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. Furthermore, the models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific sector subtropical jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of the Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Its Variability in CESM2 and Other CMIP Models

Abstract The Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) is the latest Earth System Model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in collaboration with the university community and is significantly advanced in most components compared to its predecessor (CESM1). Here, CESM2's representation of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation and its variability is assessed. Further context is providedthrough comparison to the CESM1 large ensemble and other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). This includes an assessment of the representation of jet streams and storm tracks, stationary waves, the global divergent circulation, the annular modes, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and blocking. Compared to CESM1, CESM2 is substantially improved in the representation of the storm tracks, Northern Hemisphere (NH) stationary waves, NH winter blocking and the global divergent circulation. It ranks within the top 10% of CMIP class models in many of these features. Some features of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation have degraded, such as the SH jet strength, stationary waves, and blocking, although the SH jet stream is placed at approximately the correct location. This analysis also highlights systematic deficiencies in these features across the new CMIP6 archive, such as the continued tendency for the SH jet stream to be placed too far equatorward, the North Atlantic westerlies to be too strong over Europe, the storm tracks as measured by low‐level meridional wind variance to be too weak and a lack of blocking in the North Atlantic sector.

Simpson, Isla R.↗

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)

An overview of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long pre-industrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low-top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high-top” (140 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low latitude precipitation and short-wave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; better El Niño – Southern Oscillation-related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally-based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low- and high-top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1-5.3°C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2’s transient climate response of 1.9-2.0°C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and theyrepresent CESM2’s contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Danabasoglu, Gokhan↗

Ozone Sensitivity to Varying Greenhouse Gases and Ozone-Depleting Substances in CCMI-1 Simulations

Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for CCMI-1, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances, and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. We analyse how stratospheric age of air, a commonly used diagnostic of stratospheric transport, responds to the forcings. For this diagnostic we find some salient differences in model behaviour, which may explain some of the findings for ozone. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings. We offer some thoughts on how to best approach the problem of generating a consensus ozone database from a multi-model ensemble such as CCMI-1.

CCMI↗

Review of the Global Models Used Within Phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry-climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain inter-model differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users.

CCMI↗

The Long-term Middle Atmospheric Influence of Very Large Solar Proton Events

Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone originates from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) and has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the long-term (> few months) influences of solar proton events from 1963 through 2004 on stratospheric ozone and temperature. There were extremely large solar proton events in 1972, 1989,2000,2001, and 2003. These events caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen-containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The nitrogen-containing compounds, called odd nitrogen, lasted much longer than the hydrogen-containing compounds and led to long-lived stratospheric impacts. An extremely active period for these events occurred in the five-year period, 2000- 2004, and caused increases in odd nitrogen which lasted for several months after individual events. Associated stratospheric ozone decreases of >lo% were calculated to last for up to five months past the largest events. However, the computed total column ozone and stratospheric temperature changes connected with the solar events were not found to be statistically significant. Thus, solar proton events do not likely contribute significantly to measured total column ozone fluctuations and stratospheric temperature changes.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Short- and Medium-term Atmospheric Effects of Very Large Solar Proton Events

Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. In particular, the humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone from chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. These anthropogenic effects on ozone are most important in polar regions and have been significant since the 1970s. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the short- and medium-term (days to a few months) influences of solar proton events between 1963 and 2005 on stratospheric ozone. The four largest events in the past 45 years (August 1972; October 1989; July 2000; and October-November 2003) caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen- containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The hydrogen-containing compounds have very short lifetimes and lasted for only a few days (typically the duration of the solar proton event). On the other hand, the nitrogen-containing compounds lasted much longer, especially in the Winter. The nitrogen oxides were predicted to increase substantially due to these solar events and led to mid- to upper polar stratospheric ozone decreases of over 20%. These WACCM results generally agreed with satellite measurements. Both WACCM and measurements showed enhancements of nitric acid, dinitrogen pentoxide, and chlorine nitrate, which were indirectly caused by these solar events. Solar proton events were shown to cause a significant change in the polar stratosphere and need to be considered in understanding variations during years of strong solar activity.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Solar Energy Deposition Rates in the Mesosphere Derived from Airglow Measurements: Implications for the Ozone Model Deficit Problem

We derive rates of energy deposition in the mesosphere due to the absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation by ozone. The rates are derived directly from measurements of the 1.27-microns oxygen dayglow emission, independent of knowledge of the ozone abundance, the ozone absorption cross sections, and the ultraviolet solar irradiance in the ozone Hartley band. Fifty-six months of airglow data taken between 1982 and 1986 by the near-infrared spectrometer on the Solar-Mesosphere Explorer satellite are analyzed. The energy deposition rates exhibit altitude-dependent annual and semi-annual variations. We also find a positive correlation between temperatures and energy deposition rates near 90 km at low latitudes. This correlation is largely due to the semiannual oscillation in temperature and ozone and is consistent with model calculations. There is also a suggestion of possible tidal enhancement of this correlation based on recent theoretical and observational analyses. The airglow-derived rates of energy deposition are then compared with those computed by multidimensional numerical models. The observed and modeled deposition rates typically agree to within 20%. This agreement in energy deposition rates implies the same agreement exists between measured and modeled ozone volume mixing ratios in the mesosphere. Only in the upper mesosphere at midlatitudes during winter do we derive energy deposition rates (and hence ozone mixing ratios) consistently and significantly larger than the model calculations. This result is contrary to previous studies that have shown a large model deficit in the ozone abundance throughout the mesosphere. The climatology of solar energy deposition and heating presented in this paper is available to the community at the Middle Atmosphere Energy Budget Project web site at http://heat-budget.gats-inc.com.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗

Propagation and Breaking at High Altitudes of Gravity Waves Excited by Tropospheric Forcing

An anelastic approximation is used with a time-variable coordinate transformation to formulate a two-dimensional numerical model that describes the evolution of gravity waves. The model is solved using a semi-Lagrangian method with monotone (nonoscillatory) interpolation of all advected fields. The time-variable transformation is used to generate disturbances at the lower boundary that approximate the effect of a traveling line of thunderstorms (a squall line) or of flow over a broad topographic obstacle. The vertical propagation and breaking of the gravity wave field (under conditions typical of summer solstice) is illustrated for each of these cases. It is shown that the wave field at high altitudes is dominated by a single horizontal wavelength; which is not always related simply to the horizontal dimension of the source. The morphology of wave breaking depends on the horizontal wavelength; for sufficiently short waves, breaking involves roughly one half of the wavelength. In common with other studies, it is found that the breaking waves undergo "self-acceleration," such that the zonal-mean intrinsic frequency remains approximately constant in spite of large changes in the background wind. It is also shown that many of the features obtained in the calculations can be understood in terms of linear wave theory. In particular, linear theory provides insights into the wavelength of the waves that break at high altitudes, the onset and evolution of breaking. the horizontal extent of the breaking region and its position relative to the forcing, and the minimum and maximum altitudes where breaking occurs. Wave breaking ceases at the altitude where the background dissipation rate (which in our model is a proxy for molecular diffusion) becomes greater than the rate of dissipation due to wave breaking, This altitude, in effect, the model turbopause, is shown to depend on a relatively small number of parameters that characterize the waves and the background state.

Prusa, Joseph M.↗

A one-dimensional model of the semiannual oscillation driven by convectively forced gravity waves

A one-dimensional model that solves the time-dependent equations for the zonal mean wind and a wave of specified zonal wavenumber has been used to illustrate the ability of gravity waves forced by time-dependent tropospheric heating to produce a semiannual oscillation (SAO) in the middle atmosphere. When the heating has a strong diurnal cycle, as observed over tropical landmasses, gravity waves with zonal wavelengths of a few thousand kilometers and phase velocities in the range +/- 40-50 m/sec are excited efficiently by the maximum vertical projection criterion (vertical wavelength approximately equals 2 x forcing depth). Calculations show that these waves can account for large zonal mean wind accelerations in the middle atmosphere, resulting in realistic stratopause and mesopause oscillations. Calculations of the temporal evolution of a quasi-conserved tracer indicate strong down-welling in the upper stratosphere near the equinoxes, which is associated with the descent of the SAO westerlies. In the upper mesosphere, there is a semiannual oscillation in tracer mixing ratio driven by seasonal variability in eddy mixing, which increases at the solstices and decreases at the equinoxes.

Sassi, Fabrizio↗

Planetary-scale circulations in the presence of climatological and wave-induced heating

Interaction between the large-scale circulation and the convective pattern is investigated in a coupled system governed by the linearized primitive equations. Convection is represented in terms of two components of heating: A 'climatological component' is prescribed stochastically to represent convection that is maintained by fixed distributions of land and sea and sea surface temperature (SST). An 'induced component' is defined in terms of the column-integrated moisture flux convergence to represent convection that is produced through feedback with the circulation. Each component describes the envelope organizing mesoscale convective activity. As SST on the equator is increased, induced heating amplifies in the gravest zonal wavenumbers at eastward frequencies, where positive feedback offsets dissipation. Under barotropic stratification, a critical SST of 29.5 C results in positive feedback exactly cancelling dissipation in wavenumber 1 for an eastward phase speed of 6 m/s. Sympathetic interaction between the circulation and the induced heating is the basis for 'frictional wave-Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK)', which is distinguished from classical wave-CISK by rendering the gravest zonal dimensions most unstable. Under baroclinic stratification, the coupled system exhibits similar behavior. The critical SST is only 26.5 C for conditions representative of equinox, but in excess of 30 C for conditions representative of solstice. Having the form of an unsteady Walker circulation, the disturbance produced by frictional wave-CISK compares favorably with the observed life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). SST above the critical value produces an amplifying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric westerlies and is positively correlated with temperature and surface convergence. Conversely, SST below the critical value produces a decaying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric easterlies and is nearly in quadrature with temperature and surface convergence. While sharing essential features with the MJO in the Eastern Hemisphere, frictional wave-CISK does not explain observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere, where the convective signal is largely absent. Comprised of Kelvin structure with the same frequency, observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere can be understood as a propagating response that is excited in and radiates away from the fluctuation of convection in the Eastern Hemisphere.

Salby, Murry L↗

'Downward control' of the mean meridional circulation and temperature distribution of the polar winter stratosphere

According to the 'downward control' principle, the extratropical mean vertical velocity on a given pressure level is approximately proportional to the meridional gradient of the vertically integrated zonal force per unit mass exerted by waves above that level. In this paper, a simple numerical model that includes parameterizations of both planetary and gravity wave breaking is used to explore the influence of gravity wave breaking in the mesosphere on the mean meridional circulation and temperature distribution at lower levels in the polar winter stratosphere. The results of these calculations suggest that gravity wave drag in the mesosphere can affect the state of the polar winter stratosphere down to altitudes below 30 km. The effect is most important when planetary wave driving is relatively weak: that is, during southern winter and in early northern winter. In southern winter, downwelling weakens by a factor of 2 near the stratospause and by 20% at 30 km when gravity wave drag is not included in the calculations. As a consequence, temperatures decrease considerably throughout the polar winter stratosphere (over 20 K above 40 km and as much as 8 K at 30 km, where the effect is enhanced by the long radiative relaxation timescale). The polar winter states obtained when gravity wave drag is omitted in this simple model resemble the results of simulations with some general circulation models and suggest that some of the shortcomings of the latter may be due to a deficit in mesospheric momentum deposition by small-scale gravity waves.

Garcia, Rolando R.↗

A new numerical model of the middle atmosphere. 2: Ozone and related species

A new two-dimensional model with detailed photochemistry is presented. The model includes descriptions of planetary wave and gravity wave propagation and dissipation to characterize the wave forcing and associated mixing in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Such a representation allows for explicit calculation of the regions of strong mixing in the middle atmosphere required for accurate simulation of trace gas transport. The new model also includes a detailed description of photochemical processes in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The downward transport of H2, H2O, and NO(y) from the mesosphere to the stratosphere is examined, and it is shown that mesospheric processes can influence the distributions of these chemical species in polar regions. For HNO3 we also find that small concentrations of liquid aerosols above 30 km could play a major role in determining the abundance in polar winter at high latitudes. The model is also used to examine the chemical budget of ozone in the midlatitude stratosphere and to set constraints on the effectiveness of bromine relative to chlorine for ozone loss and the role of the HO2 + BrO reaction. Recent laboratory data used in this modeling study suggest that this process greatly enhances the effectiveness of bromine for ozone destruction, making bromine-catalyzed chemistry second only to HO(x)-catalyzed ozone destruction in the contemporary stratosphere at midlatitudes below about 18 km. The calculated vertical distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere agrees well with observations, as does the total column ozone during most seasons and latitudes, with the important exception of southern hemisphere winter and spring.

Garcia, Rolando R.↗

Application of a planetary wave breaking parameterization to stratospheric circulation statistics

The planetary wave parameterization scheme developed recently by Garcia is applied to statospheric circulation statistics derived from 12 years of National Meteorological Center operational stratospheric analyses. From the data a planetary wave breaking criterion (based on the ratio of the eddy to zonal mean meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients), a wave damping rate, and a meridional diffusion coefficient are calculated. The equatorward flank of the polar night jet during winter is identified as a wave breaking region from the observed PV gradients; the region moves poleward with season, covering all high latitudes in spring. Derived damping rates maximize in the subtropical upper stratosphere (the 'surf zone'), with damping time scales of 3-4 days. Maximum diffusion coefficients follow the spatial patterns of the wave breaking criterion, with magnitudes comparable to prior published estimates. Overall, the observed results agree well with the parameterized calculations of Garcia.

Randel, William J.↗

Planetary circulations in the presence of transient and self-induced heating

The research program focuses on large-scale circulations and their interaction with the global convective pattern. An 11-year record of global cloud imagery and contemporaneous fields of motion and temperature have been used to investigate organized convection and coherent variability of the tropical circulation operating on intraseasonal time scales. This study provides a detailed portrait of tropical variability associated with the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It reveals the nature, geographical distribution, and seasonality of discrete convective signal, which is a measure of feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. That discrete spectral behavior has been evaluated in light of natural variability of the ITCZ associated with climatological convection. A composite signature of the MJO, based on cross-covariance statistics of cloud cover, motion, and temperature, has been constructed to characterize the lifecycle of the disturbance in terms of these properties. The composite behavior has also been used to investigate the influence the MJO exerts on the zonal-mean circulation and the involvement of the MJO in transfers of momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The aforementioned observational studies have led to the production of two animations. One reveals the convective signal in band-pass filtered OLR and compares it to climatological convection. The other is a 3-dimensional visualization of the composite lifecycle of the MJO. With a clear picture of the MJO in hand, feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern can be diagnosed meaningfully in numerical simulations. This process is being explored in calculations with the linearized primitive equations on the sphere in the presence of realistic stability and shear. The numerical framework represents climatological convection as a space-time stochastic process and wave-induced convection in terms of the vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence. In these calculations, frictional convergence near the equator emerges as a key to feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. At low latitudes, nearly geostrophic balance in the boundary layer gives way to frictional balance. This shifts the wave-induced convection into phase with the temperature anomaly and allows the attending heating to feed back positively onto the circulation. The calculations successfully reproduce the salient features of the MJO. They are being used to understand the growth and decay phases of the composite lifecycle and the conditions that favor amplification of the MJO.

Salby, Murry L.↗

A new numerical model of the middle atmosphere. I - Dynamics and transport of tropospheric source gases

Attention is given to a new model of the middle atmosphere which includes, in addition to the equations governing the zonal mean state, a potential vorticity equation for a single planetary-scale Rossby wave, and an IR radiative transfer code for the stratosphere and lower mesosphere, which replaces the Newtonian cooling parameterization used previously. It is shown that explicit computation of the planetary-scale wave field yields a more realistic representation of the zonal mean dynamics and the distribution of trace chemical species. Wave breaking produces a well-mixed 'surf zone' equatorward of the polar night vortex and drives a meridional circulation with downwelling on the poleward side of the vortex. This combination of mixing and downwelling produces shallow meridional gradients of trace gases in the subtropics and middle latitudes, and very steep gradients at the edge of the polar vortex. Computed distributions of methane and nitrous oxide are shown to agree well with observations.

Garcia, Rolando R.↗

Parameterization of planetary wave breaking in the middle atmosphere

A parameterization of planetary wave breaking in the middle atmosphere has been developed and tested in a numerical model which includes governing equations for a single wave and the zonal-mean state. The parameterization is based on the assumption that wave breaking represents a steady-state equilibrium between the flux of wave activity and its dissipation by nonlinear processes, and that the latter can be represented as linear damping of the primary wave. With this and the additional assumption that the effect of breaking is to prevent further amplitude growth, the required dissipation rate is readily obtained from the steady-state equation for wave activity; diffusivity coefficients then follow from the dissipation rate. The assumptions made in the derivation are equivalent to those commonly used in parameterizations for gravity wave breaking, but the formulation in terms of wave activity helps highlight the central role of the wave group velocity in determining the dissipation rate. Comparison of model results with nonlinear calculations of wave breaking and with diagnostic determinations of stratospheric diffusion coefficients reveals remarkably good agreement, and suggests that the parameterization could be useful for simulating inexpensively, but realistically, the effects of planetary wave transport.

Garcia, Rolando R.↗

The interaction of horizontal eddy transport and thermal drive in the stratosphere

The two processes that determine the average state of the circulation; i.e., horizontal eddy transport and thermal dissipation, are examined, and the effects of their interaction on circulation and on tracer distribution in the stratosphere are investigated using barotropic calculations on the sphere. It is shown that eddy advection tends to homogenize the meridional gradient Q at low latitudes, while thermal dissipation restores the gradient after episodes of mixing.

Salby, Murry L.↗