Engineering topics
Ganguli, Sumitrra
Publications and source records attributed to Ganguli, Sumitrra.
Projected income data under different shared socioeconomic pathways for Washington state
Abstract High-resolution income projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are essential for the climate change research communities to devise climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. To generate income projections for Washington state, we obtain state-level GDP per capita projections and convert them into projected annual household income. The resulting state-level income projections are subsequently downscaled to the census block-level based on the Longitudinal Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) dataset. For accuracy assessment, we downscale historical income data from state- level to block- and block group-level and compare the downscaled results against the actual income data from LODES. County-level accuracy assessment is also conducted based on American Community Survey. The results demonstrate a good agreement (Average R 2 of 0.67, 0.8, and 0.99 for block-, block group-, and county-level, respectively) between the downscaled income data and the reference data, thereby validating the methodology employed. Our approach is applicable to other states for income projections, which can be utilized by a broader audience, including those involved in demographic analysis, economic research, and urban planning.
Local-Scale Framework for Techno-Economic Analysis of Subsurface Hydrogen Storage
The energy sector is evolving toward increased reliance on renewable energy technologies to meet state, national, and organization decarbonization goals. This trend is creating challenges and opportunities with meeting current and future energy demand under the variable supply conditions that most renewables provide. Hydrogen (H 2 ) is a promising energy carrier that may meet the need for both on-demand and long-duration storage to maintain energy security and resilience. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is a method of storing H 2 in subsurface geological systems, such as depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, salt caverns, saline aquifers, hard rock, and other engineered systems. UHS has the potential to store large quantities of H 2 over time, providing a reliable source of energy while minimizing surface footprints at a lower investment cost compared to surface storage. Earlier work estimated that, if converted and retrofitted, existing underground natural gas storage (UGS) facilities in the U.S. can store approximately 327 TWh, or 9.8 million metric tons, of pure H 2 . However, a shift to pure H 2 would decrease the collective working-gas energy of the UGS facilities by approximately 75% due to physical and chemical differences between natural gas and hydrogen. The same work also suggests that almost 75% of the existing UGS facilities in the U.S. could maintain current energy demand buffering using a blend of only 20% H 2 to 80% natural gas, by volume at surface conditions. If we can take advantage of the suite of mature technologies of existing UGS facilities and natural gas utility systems to accelerate the transition to a hydrogen economy in the U.S., a 20% H 2 blend could lead to a 6-7% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for energy delivered through natural gas utility systems.
Areal interpolation of population projections consistent with different SSPs from 1-km resolution to block level based on USA Structures dataset
Population data are normally collected at various census administrative levels, and areal interpolation of population is often required to transform population to the desired spatial resolution. Building footprint datasets, such as Microsoft building footprints, have proven to be useful in estimating population distribution and can therefore be used for areal interpolation of population. In addition to Microsoft building footprints, the recently released USA Structures dataset provides additional information such as building type and building height for some regions, which may provide valuable information for a better depiction of population distribution and improved population areal interpolation accuracy. In this study, we have conducted areal interpolation of population projections consistent with three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5) from 1-km grid cells to block level in Washington state for every ten years from 2020 to 2040 based on USA Structures. We assessed USA Structures-based population downscaling accuracy using U.S. decennial survey data in 2020 under three different downscaling schemes, including population downscaling from census tracts to block groups, from census tracts to blocks, and from block groups to blocks. The resulting accuracies were compared with those based on Microsoft building footprints. The comparison showed that USA Structures achieved higher accuracies across different population density regions and areas with different urbanization extent within our study area.
Experimental Studies and Energy Modeling for Evaluating Performance of Various Deep Wall Retrofits
The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the University of Minnesota conducted a three-year, multipart study on residential retrofit wall assemblies. The project, which was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technology Office, aimed to compare a range of residential wall retrofit systems that prioritized affordability, durability, and energy savings potential. The research team identified, constructed, tested, simulated, and analyzed the feasibility and economics of 16 wall retrofit assemblies (14 test configurations and two baseline configurations) that can be applied to the exterior side of existing walls (either with or without the existing cladding). The 16 wall assemblies were installed in an in-situ laboratory environment, to evaluate the ease of construction and study the thermal and hygrothermal performance of the walls. This paper presents the methodology used to evaluate the thermal performance of the walls and discusses the energy modeling results of the study. The results from the experiments were used to calibrate a THERM model of each wall assembly, which was then applied to a whole building using the EnergyPlus 8.6 simulation engine. A residential prototype building was used to extrapolate whole-building energy savings in each U.S. climate zone. To capture the conditions of the largest number of homes in the United States, the most frequent building characteristics (e.g., attic insulation level, window specifications, foundation insulation, etc.) were extracted from ResStock data and applied to the prototype model. Results from the energy modeling showed that the climate zones with the highest potential for retrofit savings are those which are heating-dominated (i.e., Cold and Very Cold climate designations). In these climate zones, heating and cooling energy savings due to the wall retrofits alone ranged from 21.5% to 38.2%.
Wall Upgrades for Energy Retrofits: A Techno-Economic Study
Homes built before 1992, when the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program was established, represent approximately 68% of the residential building stock in the country. Up to 43% of these homes have little to no insulation in the walls and have very high air leakage rates of 10 or more air changes per hour at 50 pascals of pressure (ACH50). These issues can represent a substantial portion of unnecessary money spent on utility bills for homeowners, especially in the colder climates. There is a significant need for cost-effective, reliable retrofit methods for these homes that include air, moisture, and vapor controls which are considered best practices for high-performance new home construction. Well-tested and documented wall retrofit systems can help to achieve substantial energy savings and also improve durability, comfort, health, and resilience. In 2018, DOE’s Building Technologies Office awarded Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the University of Minnesota funding to complete a 3-year project to compare a range of residential wall retrofit systems that prioritized affordability, durability and energy savings potential. In addition to these core criteria, the ease-of-construction and the wide-scale applicability of the solutions also were considered. In this project, the research team identified, constructed, tested, simulated, and analyzed the feasibility and economics of 16 wall retrofit assemblies (14 test configurations and two baseline configurations).
Understanding the Behavioral Aspects of Rate Design
Consumer demand for electricity has often been thought of as homogenous and inelastic. However, consumers may have preferences for their electricity consumption that they have been unable to realize due to the structures of electricity rates, and historic methods of regulation. As ratemaking becomes more dynamic, consumers will have a newfound ability to realize these preferences. This paper conducts a review of this issue through the lenses of utility regulation, neoclassical economics, and behavioral economics. It surveys what aspects of consumer preferences and behavior have been well established for the electricity sector and identifies gaps that could be filled by future research. This analysis has implications for stakeholders looking to understand how households will function in transactive and real time pricing environments.
Price Formation and Grid Operation Impacts from Variable Renewable Energy Resources
Increasing amounts of Variable Renewable Energy Resources (VREs) impact electricity markets and their operation. VREs are intermittent, zero marginal cost resources that tend to displace emissions-intensive generators in electricity dispatch, reducing emissions, but impacting price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, and market power mitigation processes of electricity markets. But VREs are not the only factor that affects operational and financial challenges in electricity markets. Declining natural gas prices, changing resource mixes, as well as different electricity market designs and regulatory policies all factor into the challenges both electricity market participants and operators face in today’s electricity markets. With this in-depth examination of electricity markets and related literature review, we aim to inform on key challenges of market design and operation for successful integration of large amounts of zero marginal cost resources. We’ve identified several areas, including VREs impact on price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, market power monitoring and mitigation, as well as how state-level incentives and market design impact VREs and these challenges. With each key challenge, we survey the literature to answer the question: To what extent is the problem, and how has it evolved over time? We first conduct a thorough review of ongoing challenges in electricity markets to understand the problem and review the empirical literature to capture important findings on how VREs, specifically, impact the problem. From this review, we highlight metrics that are important to understanding VRE integration and how market designs and outcomes are evolving with increasing levels of VREs. We propose several empirical models for future research to determine the impact of VREs on these identified challenges.
Allocation Mechanisms in Rationed Markets
Economic theory has come to play an important role in power system operations through the design of wholesale markets that are central to their operation. Furthermore, transactive energy places economic theory as a cornerstone in its operational concept as it seeks to integrate the technical needs of the power system with the preferences of its participants. Traditionally the mechanism employed is the continuous double-auction but de-pending on the circumstances the power system find itself in, this mechanism may or may not be the most appropriate, i.e. a one-size fits all market institution cannot be recommended without regard for the features of the underlying trading environment. This paper seeks to explain the economic rationale that guides the choice of a market institution and takes recourse to a theoretical demonstration in the context of a rationed power system scenario where demand exceeds generation (due to any number of events such as outages, microgrid operation, etc) and electrical energy must be rationed to better understand which types of mechanisms are most appropriate.
A Comprehensive Framework for Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Context of Hydropower
While models to value ecosystem services exist, they suffer from a lack of “portability” in the sense that a single modelling framework developed for one site cannot be imported and applied to another. Additionally, benefit estimations are often fragmented, incomplete, incomparable, and in heterogenous metrics, thus preventing aggregation to arrive at one comprehensive value. In the context of hydropower, the methods, as well as the metrics used to value the associated ecosystem services, vary between stakeholders (e.g., competing water users, agencies, etc.), detracting from the ability to assess the total value of a hydropower project, water management schemes, or comparing value between competing water users. Further, current methods to value water neglect non-market ecosystem services’ values by failing to account for externalities, resulting in misallocation of costs (e.g., obligatory stakeholder payments for water use) and misinterpretation of hydropower benefits. The benefit-cost ratios in hydropower development are often incomplete because non-market benefits are excluded (e.g., benefits, such as fish habitat resiliency and agricultural water reliability, derived from hydropower development). An approach to enable consistent, standardized hydropower benefit-cost analyses does not currently exist. This paper conceptualizes a methodology to standardize ecosystem services valuation in the context of hydropower projects through the integration of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s existing Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System framework and economic valuation techniques, and demonstrates the applicability of this methodology through a limited proof-of-concept application (the New Waddell Plant, a pumped hydroelectric energy storage facility in Phoenix, AZ). The beauty of our proposed framework lies in its ability to be imported and applied to any other pumped storage facility after accounting for site-specific features.
Scaling Deep Energy Retrofits for Residential Walls - Energy, Cost, and Economic Assessment of Five Wall Systems
Providing strong economic and performance value is a primary challenge of convincing homeowners to implement deep energy retrofits to their wall systems. This study combines energy modeling and technoeconomic assessment of six experimental residential retrofit wall systems to typical existing homes in cold climates to evaluate their energy performance and cost effectiveness. Deep energy retrofits can significantly improve the energy performance of a home’s thermal envelope, help manage indoor environmental pollutants, increase homeowner comfort, increase building value, and register significant energy and cost savings in the process. We are evaluating exterior wall retrofit components and construction practices to measure and recommend steps to improve financial performance for manufacturers, installers and consumers. This study leverages a literature review, inputs from an advisory group made up of thermal enclosure experts, and simulations to identify state-of-the-art technologies for energy efficient wall systems that are suitable for cold and very cold climate zones. This paper will present results from energy modeling of six experimental wall systems compared to one baseline, that inform cost and energy performance of the subject wall systems.
A Comprehensive System of Energy Intensity Indicators for the U.S.: Methods, Data and Key Trends
This report describes a comprehensive system of energy intensity indicators for the United States that has been developed for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) over the past decade. This system of indicators is hierarchical in nature, beginning with detailed indexes of energy intensity for various sectors of the economy, which are ultimately aggregated to an overall energy intensity index for the economy as a whole. The aggregation of energy intensity indexes to higher levels in the hierarchy is performed with a version of the Log Mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. Based upon the data and methods in the system of indicators, the economy-wide energy intensity index shows a decline of about 16% in 2014 relative to a 1985 base year. Discussion of energy intensity indicators for each of the broad end-use sectors of the economy—residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation—is presented in the report. An analysis of recent changes in the efficiency of electricity generation in the U.S. is also included. A detailed appendix describes the data sources and methodology behind the energy intensity indicators for each sector.
A Comprehensive System of Energy Intensity Indicators for the U.S.: Methods, Data and Key Trends
This report describes a comprehensive system of energy intensity indicators for the United States that has been developed for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) over the past decade. This system of indicators is hierarchical in nature, beginning with detailed indexes of energy intensity for various sectors of the economy, which are ultimately aggregated to an overall energy intensity index for the economy as a whole. The aggregation of energy intensity indexes to higher levels in the hierarchy is performed with a version of the Log Mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. Based upon the data and methods in the system of indicators, the economy-wide energy intensity index shows a decline of about 16% in 2014 relative to a 1985 base year. Discussion of energy intensity indicators for each of the broad end-use sectors of the economy—residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation—is presented in the report. An analysis of recent changes in the efficiency of electricity generation in the U.S. is also included. A detailed appendix describes the data sources and methodology behind the energy intensity indicators for each sector.
2020 Review Panel Workshop on Energy Intensity Indicators: Summary Findings and Meeting Notes
On January 28-29, 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), in coordination with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), sponsored an expert workshop focused on energy intensity indicators. The intent of the workshop was to support a comprehensive review of the EERE Energy Intensity Indicators (EII), a national system of indicators used to track changes in the energy intensity of economic sectors. One goal of the workshop was to gather input from a panel of experts who have experience and knowledge related to the EII methodological approach and key data sources used to calculate indicators for each of the end-use sectors of the economy—transportation, residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity. The current EERE EII methodology is documented in a 2017 PNNL report, A Comprehensive System of Energy Intensity Indicators for the U.S.: Methods, Data and Key Trends, which is available online. The workshop also included a presentation by Dr. Beng Ang, who discussed the Log Mean Divisia index (LMDI) approach to decomposition analysis, which was followed by a discussion concerning the methodological approaches that could be applied to future EII efforts.