Long-term risk analysis associated with nuclear waste disposal in space
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Friedlander, A. L..
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A quantitative assessment is made of the long-term risk of earth reencounter and reentry associated with aborted disposal of hazardous material in the space environment. Numerical results are presented for 10 candidate disposal options covering a broad spectrum of disposal destinations and deployment propulsion systems. Based on representative models of system failure, the probability that a single payload will return and collide with earth within a period of 250,000 years is found to lie in the range .0002-.006. Proportionately smaller risk attaches to shorter time intervals. Risk-critical factors related to trajectory geometry and system reliability are identified as possible mechanisms of hazard reduction.
A data base and comparative performance analyses of alternative flight mode options for delivering a range of payload masses to Mercury orbit are provided. Launch opportunities over the period 1980-2000 are considered. Extensive data trades are developed for the ballistic flight mode option utilizing one or more swingbys of Venus. Advanced transport options studied include solar electric propulsion and solar sailing. Results show the significant performance tradeoffs among such key parameters as trip time, payload mass, propulsion system mass, orbit size, launch year sensitivity and relative cost-effectiveness. Handbook-type presentation formats, particularly in the case of ballistic mode data, provide planetary program planners with an easily used source of reference information essential in the preliminary steps of mission selection and planning.
Penetrators are elongated missile-shaped objects designed to implant scientific instrumentation to depths of 1 to 15 meters in a wide variety of soil. A typical penetrator weighs 35 kg and impacts the surface at 150 m/sec oriented as close as possible to vertical. A spacecraft bus carries the penetrators to the target body, controls their deployment, and serves as a data communications relay. The analysis addresses the question of basic feasibility and covers such topics as trajectory requirements and delivered mass capability, deployment modes and penetrator retro sizing, impact site accessibility, guidance and control, and penetrator/bus communications. We conclude that such missions, while difficult in many respects, appear to be technically feasible in the context of Jovian system exploration in the post-1985 time period.
Two concepts in spacecraft trajectory design which have been proposed by Hollenbeck (1975) and Bender and Friedlander (1975) are considered. Both concepts are intended for planetary missions and require an earth reencounter created by either a Venus gravity assist (VEGA) or a large midcourse impulse (delta V-EGA). In the case of outer planet missions, the new concepts offer significantly lower launch energy requirements than the direct ballistic flight mode. However, at least an additional two years flight time is needed for geometry phasing to set up the earth reencounter. A description is given of the trajectory characteristics for the two concepts. Attention is also given to the method of analysis used for the studies, aspects of trajectory generation, payload calculations, and target opportunity data.
An assessment of the long-term collision risk is made for an uncontrolled orbiting spacecraft that repeatedly enters the spatial region occupied by the satellites. Numerical data are obtained for 50-year orbit propagations which account approximately for the major perturbative effects of Jupiter oblateness, solar gravity and satellite gravity. A broad statistical viewpoint regarding the question of collision likelihood is adopted and is based on a total sample size of 480 initial orbits distributed among 4 orbit classes, 8 inclinations and 15 initial epochs. Numerical results compare favorably with an analytical prediction formula which shows that eccentric low-inclination orbits have high collision probability.
The feasibility of using Venus and earth gravity assists for delivering spacecraft to the asteroid belt with a low launch energy but with the additional flight time from earth to Venus and back to earth. A numerical investigation for this kind of trajectory reveals a wide range of possibilities. Energy gain tables and synodic and resonance interval tables are presented for the gravity-assist trajectories. Tables are presented for the first twenty asteroids on the trajectories. These gravity-assist flybys are compared to direct launch multi-asteroid flybys, illustrating the advantage of the gravity-assist type in launch energy requirements.
An assessment of the long-term collision risk is made for an uncontrolled orbiting spacecraft that repeatedly enters the spatial region occupied by the satellites. Numerical data are obtained for 50-year orbit propagations which account approximately for the major perturbative effects of Jupiter oblateness, solar gravity and satellite gravity. A broad statistical viewpoint regarding the question of collision likelihood is adopted and is based on a total sample size of 480 initial orbits distributed among 4 orbit classes, 8 inclinations and 15 initial epochs. Numerical results compare favorably with an analytical prediction formula which shows that eccentric, low-inclination orbits have high collision probability.
The four Galilean satellites of Jupiter present a long-term collision hazard to an uncontrolled orbiting spacecraft that repeatedly enters the spatial region occupied by the satellites. Satellite close encounters and the likelihood of collision over a wide range of initial orbit conditions were analyzed. The effect of orbit inclination was of key interest. The scope of the analysis was restricted to orbital dynamic considerations alone, i.e. the question of biological contamination given the event of collision was not considered. A quarantine or orbiter lifetime of 50 years was assumed. This time period begins at spacecraft shutdown following completion of the mission objectives. A numerical approach was adopted wherein each initial orbit is propagated for 50 years, and satellite closest encounter distances recorded on every revolution. The computer program includes approximations of the three major perturbation effects on the long-term motion of the orbiter: (1) Jupiter oblateness, (2) solar gravity, and (3) satellite gravity.
This paper summarizes unmanned planetary performance (payload and trip time) of Shuttle-based advanced propulsion systems for 1980-90 missions analyzed as part of the recent NASA/AEC Advanced Propulsion Comparisons Studies. Propulsion system designs and condensed results from over 300 propulsion/mission combinations are discussed. Chemical rocket (CRP), solar electric (SEP), nuclear rocket (NRP), and nuclear electric (NEP) propulsion systems are all considered. In terms of missions flown, total flight time, and number of Shuttle launches required, NEP provides the best performance. Relative to NEP, it is shown that NRP, SEP, and CRP degrade mission performance by 20%, 40%, and 50%, respectively, at nominal payloads.
Two mission concepts utilizing modified Pioneer Venus hardware are presented as relatively low-cost alternatives for scientific exploration of Mars in 1979. Mission A would perform in situ aeronomy measurements in the Martian ionosphere and include several remote sensing instruments capable of geological surface mapping at low altitudes. The initial high eccentricity orbit would be allowed to decay in an adaptive mode. Mission B would sequentially deploy (from an orbiter bus), four, nondestructing surface penetrometers carrying instrumentation to investigate soil density, composition and chemistry, subsurface water, and perhaps seismology. Mission B is more expensive than mission A, since it requires more extensive hardware modifications and systems development.
A multitarget mission mode is described which utilizes the solar electric propulsion (SEP) capability to rendezvous with an asteroid after the encounter with Encke. This mode can be defined as a 'no-risk' Encke flyby mission relative to SEP technology. Launched in mid-1980, the earth-Encke transfer is all-ballistic, and SEP operation begins after comet encounter and is relied upon only to accomplish the secondary target objectives. The discussion is based on an exploratory analysis and is therefore limited in scope to a description of trajectory profile and spacecraft mass characteristics.
A preliminary investigation of lower cost Mars missions which perform useful exploration objectives after the Viking/75 mission was conducted. As a study guideline, it was assumed that significant cost savings would be realized by utilizing Pioneer hardware currently being developed for a pair of 1978 Venus missions. This in turn led to the additional constraint of a 1979 launch with the Atlas/Centaur launch vehicle which has been designated for the Pioneer Venus missions. Two concepts, using an orbiter bus platform, were identified which have both good science potential and mission simplicity indicative of lower cost. These are: (1) an aeronomy/geology orbiter, and (2) a remote sensing orbiter with a number of deployable surface penetrometers.
We consider analytically the use of existing instrumentation in determining asteroid gravity fields from orbiting spacecraft. Asteroids (Eros as an example) are modeled as homogeneous triaxial ellipsoids, with gravitational potential given by a sperical-harmonic expansion. Mass concentrations are modeled as point masses. The character of spacecraft orbits about asteroids is discussed, along with detectibility of gravitational coefficients and of mass concentrations. A Kalman-filtering treatment of the observation process, for Eros as example, shows that using DSN tracking and onboard gravity gradiometry, radar altimetry, and celestial angle measurements, a single orbit yields asteroid mass to 0.03% and coefficients C20 to C44 to 1% accuracies.
The characteristics and capabilities of solar electric propulsion for performing orbiter missions at the planets Uranus and Neptune are described. An assessment of the scientific objectives and instrumentation requirements, their relation to orbit size selection, and parametric analysis of solar electric propulsion trajectory/payload performance are included. Utilizing the Titan 3D/Centaur launch vehicle, minimum flight times of about 3400 days to Uranus and 5300 days to Neptune are required to place the TOPS spacecraft into the nominal orbits. It has been shown that solar electric propulsion can be used effectively to accomplish elliptical orbiter missions at Uranus and Neptune. However, because of the very long flight time required, these mission profiles are not too attractive. Previous studies have shown that nuclear electric propulsion, if developed, would allow much faster trips; 5 years to Uranus and 8 years to Neptune.
The characteristics and capabilities of solar electric propulsion for performing sample-return missions to the asteroids Flora and Eros are considered. Trajectory/payload analysis and mission design tradeoff options are emphasized.
Four periodic comets with perihelia between 1980 and 1986 (Encke, d'Arrest, Kipff, and Halley) are used as candidates for the comet rendezvous mission study. All these comet apparitions are especially favorable for rendezvous missions, because of early earth-based comet recovery, good opportunities to view their activity from earth, and reasonable launch vehicle and trajectory requirements for nominal payloads.
Solar electric propulsion application to Halley Comet flythrough and rendezvous missions, describing trajectory characteristics and payload capabilities