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Frick, Natalie Mims

Publications and source records attributed to Frick, Natalie Mims.

At least 19 records
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DOE OSTI2025

2025 Large Load Literature Review

This literature review catalogs more than 90 publications focused on large loads, and groups the documents and resources thematically into 12 categories, (listed below). The 2026 Large Load Literature Review and Data Sources summary reports are available here: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/2026-large-load-literature-review -Load forecasting -Data sources -Reliability and resource adequacy -Large load interconnection -Demand flexibility -Generation -Co-location -Data center location/infrastructure -Large load tariffs -Policy options -Maps and tools -Design and operations

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy

Resource adequacy concerns may be very different in electricity systems that have higher levels of solar and storage, requiring changes to existing planning models. This study explores a novel approach to evaluating resource adequacy under future scenarios with higher solar and storage in the Southeast U.S. It uses NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), a collection of probabilistic resource adequacy modeling tools, and compares results when interacting PRAS and a portfolio planning tool with a more traditional modeling approach. The results suggest that traditional models perform reasonably well with lower levels of solar PV, but at higher levels of solar probabilistic tools better capture the changes in resource adequacy concerns—such as winter energy availability—associated with higher solar systems. This is the final study in the Preparing Southeast Markets for Reliable and Affordable Integration of Solar into Operations and Planning project. Two prior reports can be found at: Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/solar-and-storage-integration Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region. https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/multiutility_fe_reserve_sharing_final.pdf

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage solar and wind forecast error. Because solar and wind forecast errors tend to be weakly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the benefits of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeastern United States, in scenarios in which solar and wind generation ranges from 34% to 65% of total generation. It finds that day-ahead forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity (6%-10% of total capacity), but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce these requirements (by 6%-29%). It finds that, in economic terms, the value of forecast error reserve sharing ($\$$0.09-$\$$1.24 billion per year, $\$$0.12-$\$$1.68/MWh of load across scenarios) tends to decline with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower reserve and energy prices. Even with declines in reserve prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value, though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage the forecast error associated with these resources. Because wind and solar forecast errors tend to be poorly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the value of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeast United States. It finds that forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce physical (MW) reserve requirements (from 25%-26% to 18%-19% of average load in high solar scenarios). It finds that the value of forecast error reserve sharing declines with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower wholesale energy and reserve prices. Even with declines in wholesale prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value (as much as $\$$400 million per year in a high solar scenario), though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage, this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices. The results suggest the importance of coordinated capacity expansion planning for forecast error reserve sharing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations

Solar energy has the potential to be a core energy resource for the southeastern United States. To better understand the implications of higher levels of solar PV (27%-43% of total generation capacity) and electricity storage (13%-49% of peak load) would affect electricity system reliability, costs, and operations in the U.S. Southeast, this study sought to address two main questions. First, how would higher levels of solar PV and electricity storage impact the costs, reliability, and operations of electricity systems in the Southeast in 2035? Second, at different levels of solar PV and electricity storage, what are the benefits of operational coordination among utilities in the Southeast, through more efficient regional dispatch and sharing operating reserves? To answer these questions, the study used detailed capacity expansion and dispatch modeling to develop and examine 15 scenarios with different levels of solar PV, electricity storage, and operational coordination, focusing on the year 2035. The study also evaluates the benefits of operational coordination among utilities through more efficient regional dispatch and reserve sharing, at different levels of solar and storage. The study focuses on five balancing regions that cover Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and parts of Mississippi and Missouri.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Managing changes in peak demand from building and transportation electrification with energy efficiency [Slides]

The Department of Energy funded Berkeley Lab to provide technical assistance to two municipal utilities on how energy efficiency and demand flexibility can mitigate the peak demand impacts of building and transportation electrification. Berkeley Lab worked with these utilities, Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) and Fort Collins Utilities, to identify research questions that supported their planning needs. For both utilities, Berkeley Lab developed scenario-based load forecasts that considered baseline and high-efficiency building electrification. For SMUD, the forecast also explored the sensitivity of peak demand to extreme weather (a winter cold snap) at the system-level. For Fort Collins Utilities, the forecast addressed the impacts of low, medium, and high levels of building and transportation technology adoption on select distribution feeders. Berkeley Lab is also developing a guidance document for utilities that will draw on lessons learned from the technical assistance and provide a framework for conducting similar analyses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Framework for Non-Pipeline Alternatives Analysis and Review of Existing Approaches

States are increasingly interested in gas distribution system planning and the role that demand-side resources can play in maintaining an affordable, reliable, equitable, and low-carbon energy system. In particular, public utility commissions and utilities are exploring the role of non-pipeline alternatives (NPA) – an investment or activity that defers, reduces, or avoids the need to construct or replace a pipeline – in gas distribution system planning. NPAs are an emerging cost and risk mitigation tool that can provide gas utilities with an opportunity to reduce emissions, gas system costs, and customer risk by avoiding unnecessary infrastructure spending. Rather than address system issues with more costly and long-lived traditional capital projects, utilities can leverage demand-side NPA resources such as energy efficiency and electrification as well as supply-side NPA resources to meet system needs. However, there is limited guidance on performing an NPA and even fewer lessons learned. To fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy funded two reports on NPAs. The first report is a literature review that focuses on four states' NPA policies. The second report offers a framework for evaluating NPAs that states can adapt to meet their policy needs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Duke Energy’s Integrated System and Operations Planning: A comparative analysis of integrated planning practices

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory provided technical assistance to the South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff to examine how Duke Energy’s Integrated System Operations Planning (ISOP) framework interacts with other electricity planning processes in South Carolina. While this report was prepared for the South Carolina ORS, the information contained herein may be useful to audiences in other states who are interested in IDP, including public utility commissions, state energy offices, other state agencies, utilities, and stakeholders. The report discusses how to access the ISOP process diagram created for the report, provides observations about Duke Energy’s ISOP from our interviews and review of publicly available materials; and assesses ISOP, based on best practices for integrated distribution planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Drivers of the Cost of Saved Electricity in Utility Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs

Energy efficiency programs funded by utility customers provide an electricity resource in most U.S. states, but their scale and cost of saving electricity varies significantly by state. In this paper, we explore the drivers of the cost of saved electricity in these programs with an econometric model and nearly a decade of data reported by efficiency program administrators. We found strong evidence for economies of scale and weak evidence for diseconomies of scale, which suggests that states with low levels of efficiency savings relative to retail sales can increase the size of their efficiency programs without large increases to the cost of saved electricity. We discuss examples of energy efficiency forecasting and potential modeling in light our econometric analysis and identify methodological improvements relevant to utilities and grid operators. This paper provides insights into the economics of customer-funded efficiency programs that will support regulators, utilities, and policymakers to utilize energy efficiency as a resource.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Practical Guidance on Accessing and Using the Data

This report describes example applications and considerations for using the National Renewable Energy Lab’s ResStock and ComStock end use load profiles (EULP). The report begins with an introduction to the three year project, and then provides instructions on accessing the EULP data and considerations for using the EULP and limitations of the data. The remainder of the report is on EULP use cases, including a variety of electricity planning use cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

State Indicators for Advancing Demand Flexibility and Energy Efficiency in Buildings - Part I [Slides]

This slide deck report identifies objectives and key indicators for state activities that advance demand flexibility in buildings — legislation, utility regulatory proceedings, executive orders and programs. It also illustrates progress to date and identifies trends, gaps, and opportunities. Part I of the report focuses on (1) demand response and (2) energy efficiency targeted to reduce peak demand or integrate with demand response. This section covers building energy codes, appliance and equipment standards, resource standards, utility planning, utility programs, advanced metering infrastructure and meter data, rate design, state programs, state energy planning, and related state policies and regulations. Part II of the report addresses traditional energy efficiency indicators, including utility and state programs, codes, and standards that support annual energy savings. See the additional links for an infographic, library of cited state documents on demand flexibility, and presentation to the NASEO-NARUC Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings Working Group.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Practical Guidance on Accessing and Using the Data

End-use load profiles (EULP), which quantify how and when energy is used, are critically important to utilities, public utility commissions, state energy offices, and other stakeholders. Applications of EULPs focus on understanding how efficiency, demand response, and other distributed energy resources are valued and used in R&D prioritization, utility resource and distribution system planning, and state and local energy planning and regulations. Consequently, high-quality EULPs are critical for widespread adoption of electrification, demand flexibility, and grid-interactive efficient buildings. For example, EULPs can be used to forecast energy savings in buildings or to identify energy using activities that can be shifted to different times of the day.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

How to Build a Connected Community: Policies to Promote Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings and Demand Flexibility

Efficient, connected, grid-interactive, smart, and flexible buildings are key to decarbonizing the U.S. energy economy, optimizing energy use, reducing electric consumers’ bills, integrating variable renewable energy resources, and improving the reliability and performance of the nation’s electricity grids. Such grid-interactive efficient buildings have high levels of energy efficiency layered with other distributed energy resources (DERs) and intelligent controls to provide demand flexibility. Policy support is unfolding at the federal, state, and local levels to transform homes and workplaces into state-of-the-art energy-efficient buildings and community-level grid services. This paper starts by describing the potential benefits. Next, it highlights existing policies — with a focus on state-level actions — that support grid-interactive efficient building deployment and demand flexibility. Finally, it identifies current trends and gaps, policies and programs that promote grid-interactive efficient buildings, and aggregations of grid-interactive efficient buildings referred to as Virtual Power Plants.

Schwartz, Lisa C↗
DOE OSTI2022

If One GEB is Good, a Community of GEBs is Better

Energy efficient, connected, grid-interactive, smart and flexible buildings are key to decarbonization, lowering energy use and improving the nation’s electricity grid. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Connected Communities initiative works to demonstrate how coordinated groups of highly efficient buildings combined with other distributed energy resources (DERs), such as electric vehicle (EV) charging, batteries, storage, demand response and photovoltaic (PV) generation can reliably and cost-effectively serve as grid assets by strategically deploying efficiency and demand flexibility while reducing carbon emissions. In 2021, DOE competitively awarded $61 million to a diverse portfolio of 10 pilot projects to promote grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) working together to reliably and cost-effectively serve as grid assets while decarbonizing. Two of the main tenets of the program are measuring the communities’ energy and carbon performance and understanding how to replicate project successes in other communities. This paper begins with a discussion of what Connected Communities are (including a brief history) and their many benefits, including reduced carbon emissions and increased building efficiency and demand flexibility. Next, it provides an overview of the 10 projects, highlighting the diversity of approaches to measure success and replicate the projects: geographic locations; building types; utility, regulatory, market environments; and building vintages that will be used to test the ability of buildings to serve as grid resources. It concludes with a discussion of anticipated project impacts and the metrics that will be used to evaluate the Connected Communities projects.

Nemtzow, David↗
DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Methodology and Results of Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High- quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation (Frick, Eckman, and Goldman 2017; Frick 2019). To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project - End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock - that culminated in the release of a publicly available dataset1 of simulated EULPs representing residential and commercial buildings across the contiguous United States. The motivation for this work is further detailed in a November 2019 report: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps (Mims Frick et al. 2019). This Methodology and Results report provides detailed descriptions of how the dataset was developed, intended for an audience of dataset and model users interested in the technical details. These details include descriptions of all of the model improvements made for calibration and the final comparisons to empirical data sources. A companion report, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Applications and Opportunities, will be published subsequently and will describe example applications and considerations for using the dataset, intended for an audience of general dataset users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying grid reliability and resilience impacts of energy efficiency: Examples and opportunities

Traditional reliability and emerging resilience metrics may not fully recognize benefits from distributed energy resources (DERs) such as energy efficiency. This technical brief explains how existing planning processes for bulk power and distribution systems capture the impact of energy efficiency on power system reliability and resilience with illustrative examples. We identify limitations in using existing reliability and resilience metrics to quantify efficiency and other DER benefits. The brief concludes with a discussion of opportunities to enhance current planning practices to better capture the reliability and resilience value of energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗