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Fraser, P.

Publications and source records attributed to Fraser, P..

Report on concentrations, lifetimes, and trends of CFCs, halons, and related species

The atmospheric lifetimes of molecules containing chlorine and bromine are the dominant parameters influencing their ability to promote enhanced ozone destruction in the stratosphere. The purpose of this report is to assess the present state of knowledge of the lifetimes of halocarbons using two complementary approaches. First, a time series of measurements of gas concentrations is used together with information on their emissions histories and a computational model of atmospheric circulation and chemistry to infer lifetimes through a mass balance approach. Second, an atmospheric chemical-dynamical model is used with detailed information on the chemistry and spectroscopy of the molecules of interest to calculate lifetimes. The lifetimes determined by these two methods are then compared. Attention is focused most closely on fully halogenated chlorine- and bromine-containing molecules, primarily the chlorofluorocarbons, and the halons, because of their ability to deliver chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere. Some attention will be given to those molecules containing hydrogen, which are subject to removal in the troposphere primarily by reaction with OH and by other processes.

Kaye, J. A.

Global average concentration and trend for hydroxyl radicals deduced from ALE/GAGE trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) data for 1978-1990

An optimal estimation inversion scheme is utilized with atmospheric data and emission estimates to determined the globally averaged CH3CCl3 tropospheric lifetime and OH concentration. The data are taken from atmospheric measurements from surface stations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane and show an annual increase of 4.4 +/- 0.2 percent. Industrial emission estimates and a small oceanic loss rate are included, and the OH concentration for the same period (1978-1990) are incorporated at 1.0 +/- 0.8 percent/yr. The positive OH trend is consistent with theories regarding OH and ozone trends with respect to land use and global warming. Attention is given to the effects of the ENSO on the CH3CCl3 data and the assumption of continuing current industrial anthropogenic emissions. A novel tropical atmospheric tracer-transport mechanism is noted with respect to the CH3CCl3 data.

Prinn, R.

Global trends

Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.

Megie, G.