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Foster, Ian

Publications and source records attributed to Foster, Ian.

Foundation Models for the Electric Power Grid

Foundation models (FMs) currently dominate news headlines. They employ advanced deep learning architectures to extract structural information autonomously from vast datasets through self-supervision. The resulting rich representations of complex systems and dynamics can be applied to many downstream applications. Therefore, advances in FMs can find uses in electric power grids, challenged by the energy transition and climate change. This paper calls for the development of FMs for electric grids. We highlight their strengths and weaknesses amidst the challenges of a changing grid. It is argued that FMs learning from diverse grid data and topologies, which we call grid foundation models (GridFMs), could unlock transformative capabilities, pioneering a new approach to leveraging AI to redefine how we manage complexity and uncertainty in the electric grid. Finally, we discuss a practical implementation pathway and road map of a GridFM-v0, a first GridFM for power flow applications based on graph neural networks, and explore how various downstream use cases will benefit from this model and future GridFMs.

AI-based power flow simulation

Shaping the Future of Self-Driving Autonomous Laboratories Workshop

The "Shaping the Future of Self-Driving Autonomous Laboratories" workshop, held in Denver on November 7-8, 2024, brought together leading experts from materials science and computing to address the growing need to revolutionize scientific research through AI-driven autonomous laboratories. The workshop identified critical challenges, including the integration of heterogeneous data, development of AI systems that understand fundamental physical principles, and comprehensive safety protocols. Key recommendations emerged around developing universal laboratory equipment interfaces, implementing automated metadata collection systems, and creating hybrid AI approaches that combine data-driven learning with scientific principles. The workshop emphasized maintaining human oversight while leveraging automation, transforming scientific education to prepare the next generation of researchers, and establishing a national consortium leveraging DOE facilities as anchors for broader collaboration with academia and industry. Participants stressed the urgency of addressing the growing disconnect between human decision-making timescales and modern instrumentation capabilities, highlighting the need for strategic automation while preserving essential human insight and oversight in the research process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Machine learning-guided discovery of gas evolving electrode bubble inactivation

The adverse effects of electrochemical bubbles on the performance of gas-evolving electrodes are well known, but studies on the degree of adhered bubble-caused inactivation, and how inactivation changes during bubble evolution are limited. We study electrode inactivation caused by oxygen evolution while using surface engineering to control bubble formation. We find that the inactivation of the entire projected area, as is currently believed, is a poor approximation which leads to non-physical results. Using a machine learning-based image-based bubble detection method to analyze large quantities of experimental data, we show that bubble impacts are small for surface engineered electrodes which promote high bubble projected areas while maintaining low direct bubble contact. We thus propose a simple methodology for more accurately estimating the true extent of bubble inactivation, which is closer to the area which is directly in contact with the bubbles.

Lake, Jack R.

Employing artificial intelligence to steer exascale workflows with colmena

Computational workflows are a common class of application on supercomputers, yet the loosely coupled and heterogeneous nature of workflows often fails to take full advantage of their capabilities. We created Colmena to leverage the massive parallelism of a supercomputer by using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to learn from and adapt a workflow as it executes. Colmena allows scientists to define how their application should respond to events (e.g., task completion) as a series of cooperative agents. In this paper, we describe the design of Colmena, the challenges we overcame while deploying applications on exascale systems, and the science workflows we have enhanced through interweaving AI. The scaling challenges we discuss include developing steering strategies that maximize node utilization, introducing data fabrics that reduce communication overhead of data-intensive tasks, and implementing workflow tasks that cache costly operations between invocations. These innovations coupled with a variety of application patterns accessible through our agent-based steering model have enabled science advances in chemistry, biophysics, and materials science using different types of AI. In conclusion, our vision is that Colmena will spur creative solutions that harness AI across many domains of scientific computing.

Workflows

Workflows Community Summit 2024: Future Trends and Challenges in Scientific Workflows

The 2024 Workflows Community Summit report presents the outcomes of a three-day international gathering that brought together 109 experts from 18 countries to discuss future trends and challenges in scientific workflows. The summit focused on six key areas: time-sensitive workflows, convergence of AI and HPC workflows, multi-facility workflows, heterogeneous HPC environments, user experience and interfaces, and FAIR computational workflows. Discussions highlighted emerging challenges such as integrating AI with traditional HPC, managing workflows across diverse facilities, addressing heterogeneity in computing environments, and ensuring workflows are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). The report outlines recent advances, ongoing challenges, and provides recommendations for each topic area, emphasizing the need for standardization, improved interoperability, and the development of more sophisticated tools and frameworks to support the evolving landscape of scientific workflows in the era of exascale computing and AI integration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Accelerating multiscale electronic stopping power predictions with time-dependent density functional theory and machine learning

Knowing the rate at which particle radiation releases energy in a material, the “stopping power,” is key to designing nuclear reactors, medical treatments, semiconductor and quantum materials, and many other technologies. While the nuclear contribution to stopping power, i.e., elastic scattering between atoms, is well understood in the literature, the route for gathering data on the electronic contribution has for decades remained costly and reliant on many simplifying assumptions, including that materials are isotropic. We establish a method that combines time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) and machine learning to reduce the time to assess new materials to hours on a supercomputer and provide valuable data on how atomic details influence electronic stopping. Our approach uses TDDFT to compute the electronic stopping from first principles in several directions and then machine learning to interpolate to other directions at a cost of 10 million times fewer core-hours. We demonstrate the combined approach in a study of proton irradiation in aluminum and employ it to predict how the depth of maximum energy deposition, the “Bragg Peak,” varies depending on the incident angle—a quantity otherwise inaccessible to modelers and far outside the scales of quantum mechanical simulations. The lack of any experimental information requirement makes our method applicable to most materials, and its speed makes it a prime candidate for enabling quantum-to-continuum models of radiation damage. The prospect of reusing valuable TDDFT data for training the model makes our approach appealing for applications in the age of materials data science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Globus service enhancements for exascale applications and facilities

Many extreme-scale applications require the movement of large quantities of data to, from, and among leadership computing facilities, as well as other scientific facilities and the home institutions of facility users. These applications, particularly when leadership computing facilities are involved, can touch upon edge cases (e.g., terabyte files) that had not been a focus of previous Globus optimization work, which had emphasized rather the movement of many smaller (megabyte to gigabyte) files. We report here on how automated client-driven chunking can be used to accelerate both the movement of large files and the integrity checking operations that have proven to be essential for large data transfers. In conclusion, we present detailed performance studies that provide insights into the benefits of these modifications in a range of file transfer scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Machine learning and TDDFT software for stopping power computation

(SF-24-012) Stopping power describes the rate that a material slows radiation particles passing through it and is useful in designing many technologies. Few organizations can perform new measurements, which require significant resources and rare equipment, and all others rely on coarse approximations rendered from pre-existing data. Methods for computing stopping power in new materials, such as time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT), have only recently (circa-2015) become available but are too computationally costly to use frequently enough to have a pronounced impact. We have created a method that opens a pathway to computing stopping power without any need for experimental data by combining electronic structure computations and machine learning.

Ward, Logan

Diaspora: Resilience-Enabling Services for Real-Time Distributed Workflows

The need for real-time processing to enable automated decision making and experimental steering has driven a shift from high-performance computing workflows on a centralized system to a distributed approach that integrates remote data sources, edge devices, and diverse compute facilities. Under this paradigm, data can be processed close to the source where it is generated, thus reducing latency and bandwidth usage. System resilience is thus a key challenge, requiring distributed workflows to survive component failures and to meet stringent quality-of-service requirements, which results in the need to mitigate anomalies such as congestion and low availability of resources. To address these challenges, we propose Diaspora, a unified resilience framework that is inspired by event-driven communication patterns used in public clouds. Specifically, we propose an event fabric that extends across sites, facilities, and computations to provide timely, reliable, and accurate information about data, application, and resource status. On top of the event fabric, we build resilience-enabling services that combine QoS-aware data streaming, resilient data views, resilient compute and data resources, and anomaly detection and prediction, all of which collectively enhance workflow resilience for these scientific cases.

Rao, Nageswara

A Regional Nuclear Conflict Would Compromise Global Food Security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 ◦C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30◦N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Jaegermeyr, Jonas

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se

Toward a New Generation of Agricultural System Data, Models, and Knowledge Products: State of Agricultural Systems Science

We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales. Although current agricultural systems models have features that are needed for the Use Cases, we found that all of them have limitations and need to be improved. We identified common limitations across all Use Cases, namely 1) a scarcity of data for developing, evaluating, and applying agricultural system models and 2) inadequate knowledge systems that effectively communicate model results to society. We argue that these limitations are greater obstacles to progress than gaps in conceptual theory or available methods for using system models. New initiatives on open data show promise for addressing the data problem, but there also needs to be a cultural change among agricultural researchers to ensure that data for addressing the range of Use Cases are available for future model improvements and applications. We conclude that multiple platforms and multiple models are needed for model applications for different purposes. The Use Cases provide a useful framework for considering capabilities and limitations of existing models and data.

Livestock models

Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

agricultural systems

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling

Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change

Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

agriculture

NPSS on NASA's Information Power Grid: Using CORBA and Globus to Coordinate Multidisciplinary Aeroscience Applications

This paper describes a project to evaluate the feasibility of combining Grid and Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) technologies, with a view to leveraging the numerous advantages of commodity technologies in a high-performance Grid environment. A team from the NASA Glenn Research Center and Argonne National Laboratory has been studying three problems: a desktop-controlled parameter study using Excel (Microsoft Corporation); a multicomponent application using ADPAC, NPSS, and a controller program-, and an aviation safety application running about 100 jobs in near real time. The team has successfully demonstrated (1) a Common-Object- Request-Broker-Architecture- (CORBA-) to-Globus resource manager gateway that allows CORBA remote procedure calls to be used to control the submission and execution of programs on workstations and massively parallel computers, (2) a gateway from the CORBA Trader service to the Grid information service, and (3) a preliminary integration of CORBA and Grid security mechanisms. We have applied these technologies to two applications related to NPSS, namely a parameter study and a multicomponent simulation.

Lopez, Isaac

NPSS on NASA's IPG: Using CORBA and Globus to Coordinate Multidisciplinary Aeroscience Applications

Within NASA's High Performance Computing and Communication (HPCC) program, the NASA Glenn Research Center is developing an environment for the analysis/design of aircraft engines called the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). The vision for NPSS is to create a "numerical test cell" enabling full engine simulations overnight on cost-effective computing platforms. To this end, NPSS integrates multiple disciplines such as aerodynamics, structures, and heat transfer and supports "numerical zooming" between O-dimensional to 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensional component engine codes. In order to facilitate the timely and cost-effective capture of complex physical processes, NPSS uses object-oriented technologies such as C++ objects to encapsulate individual engine components and CORBA ORBs for object communication and deployment across heterogeneous computing platforms. Recently, the HPCC program has initiated a concept called the Information Power Grid (IPG), a virtual computing environment that integrates computers and other resources at different sites. IPG implements a range of Grid services such as resource discovery, scheduling, security, instrumentation, and data access, many of which are provided by the Globus toolkit. IPG facilities have the potential to benefit NPSS considerably. For example, NPSS should in principle be able to use Grid services to discover dynamically and then co-schedule the resources required for a particular engine simulation, rather than relying on manual placement of ORBs as at present. Grid services can also be used to initiate simulation components on parallel computers (MPPs) and to address inter-site security issues that currently hinder the coupling of components across multiple sites. These considerations led NASA Glenn and Globus project personnel to formulate a collaborative project designed to evaluate whether and how benefits such as those just listed can be achieved in practice. This project involves firstly development of the basic techniques required to achieve co-existence of commodity object technologies and Grid technologies; and secondly the evaluation of these techniques in the context of NPSS-oriented challenge problems. The work on basic techniques seeks to understand how "commodity" technologies (CORBA, DCOM, Excel, etc.) can be used in concert with specialized "Grid" technologies (for security, MPP scheduling, etc.). In principle, this coordinated use should be straightforward because of the Globus and IPG philosophy of providing low-level Grid mechanisms that can be used to implement a wide variety of application-level programming models. (Globus technologies have previously been used to implement Grid-enabled message-passing libraries, collaborative environments, and parameter study tools, among others.) Results obtained to date are encouraging: we have successfully demonstrated a CORBA to Globus resource manager gateway that allows the use of CORBA RPCs to control submission and execution of programs on workstations and MPPs; a gateway from the CORBA Trader service to the Grid information service; and a preliminary integration of CORBA and Grid security mechanisms. The two challenge problems that we consider are the following: 1) Desktop-controlled parameter study. Here, an Excel spreadsheet is used to define and control a CFD parameter study, via a CORBA interface to a high throughput broker that runs individual cases on different IPG resources. 2) Aviation safety. Here, about 100 near real time jobs running NPSS need to be submitted, run and data returned in near real time. Evaluation will address such issues as time to port, execution time, potential scalability of simulation, and reliability of resources. The full paper will present the following information: 1. A detailed analysis of the requirements that NPSS applications place on IPG. 2. A description of the techniques used to meet these requirements via the coordinated use of CORBA and Globus. 3. A description of results obtained to date in the first two challenge problems.

Lopez, Isaac

Large-Scale Distributed Computational Fluid Dynamics on the Information Power Grid Using Globus

This paper describes an experiment in which a large-scale scientific application development for tightly-coupled parallel machines is adapted to the distributed execution environment of the Information Power Grid (IPG). A brief overview of the IPG and a description of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) algorithm are given. The Globus metacomputing toolkit is used as the enabling device for the geographically-distributed computation. Modifications related to latency hiding and Load balancing were required for an efficient implementation of the CFD application in the IPG environment. Performance results on a pair of SGI Origin 2000 machines indicate that real scientific applications can be effectively implemented on the IPG; however, a significant amount of continued effort is required to make such an environment useful and accessible to scientists and engineers.

Barnard, Stephen