Engineering topics

Ferryman, Thomas A.

Publications and source records attributed to Ferryman, Thomas A..

10 records

DOE OSTI2013

Psychosocial Modeling of Insider Threat Risk Based on Behavioral and Word Use Analysis

In many insider crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they can be assessed. A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. A complementary Personality Factor modeling approach was developed based on analysis to derive relevant personality characteristics from word use. Several implementations of the psychosocial model were evaluated by comparing their agreement with judgments of human resources and management professionals; the personality factor modeling approach was examined using email samples. If implemented in an operational setting, these models should be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment to identify employees who pose a greater insider threat.

behavioral modeling↗

DOE OSTI2013

An Ensemble Approach for Forecasting Net Interchange Schedule

The net interchange schedule (NIS) is the sum of the transactions (MW) between an ISO/RTO and its neighbors. Effective forecasting of the submitted NIS can improve grid operation efficiency. This paper applies a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to forecast submitted NIS. As an ensemble approach, the BMA method aggregates different forecasting models in order to improve forecasting accuracy and consistency. In this study, the BMA method is compared to two alternative approaches: a stepwise regression method and an artificial neural network (ANN) trained for NIS forecasting. In our comparative analysis, we use field measurement data from the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland (PJM) Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) to train and test each method. Our preliminary results indicate that ensemble-based methods can provide more accurate and consistent NIS forecasts in comparison to non-ensemble alternate methods.

Vlachopoulou, Maria↗

DOE OSTI2012

Net Interchange Schedule Forecasting of Electric Power Exchange for RTO/ISOs

Neighboring independent system operators (ISOs) exchange electric power to enable efficient and reliable operation of the grid. Net interchange (NI) schedule is the sum of the transactions (in MW) between an ISO and its neighbors. Effective forecasting of the amount of actual NI can improve grid operation efficiency. This paper presents results of a preliminary investigation into various methods of prediction that may result in improved prediction accuracy. The methods studied are linear regression, forward regression, stepwise regression, and support vector machine (SVM) regression. The work to date is not yet conclusive. The hope is to explore the effectiveness of other prediction methods and apply all methods to at least one new data set. This should enable more confidence in the conclusions.

Electrical Power Exchange↗

DOE OSTI2011

Initial Study on the Predictability of Real Power on the Grid based on PMU Data

Operations on the electric power grid provide highly reliable power to the end users. These operations involve hundreds of human operators and automated control schemes. However, the operations process can often take several minutes to complete. During these several minutes, the operations are often evaluated on a past state of the power system. Proper prediction methods could change this to make the operations evaluate the state of the power grid minutes in advance. Such information allows proactive, rather than reactive, actions on the power system and aids in improving the efficiency and reliability of the power grid as a whole. A successful demonstration of this prediction framework is necessary to evaluate the feasibility of utilizing such predicted states in grid operations.

phasor measurement unit↗

DOE OSTI2011

Uncertainty Quantification in State Estimation using the Probabilistic Collocation Method

In this study, a new efficient uncertainty quantification technique, probabilistic collocation method (PCM) on sparse grid points is employed to enable the evaluation of uncertainty in state estimation. The PCM allows us to use just a small number of ensembles to quantify the uncertainty in estimating the state variables of power systems. By sparse grid points, the PCM approach can handle large number of uncertain parameters in power systems with relatively lower computational cost, when comparing with classic Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. The algorithm and procedure is outlined and we demonstrate the capability and illustrate the application of PCM on sparse grid points approach on uncertainty quantification in state estimation of the IEEE 14 bus model as an example. MC simulations have also been conducted to verify accuracy of the PCM approach. By comparing the results obtained from MC simulations with PCM results for mean and standard deviation of uncertain parameters, it is evident that the PCM approach is computationally more efficient than MC simulations.

Lin, Guang↗

NASA NTRS2007

Information Display System for Atypical Flight Phase

Method and system for displaying information on one or more aircraft flights, where at least one flight is determined to have at least one atypical flight phase according to specified criteria. A flight parameter trace for an atypical phase is displayed and compared graphically with a group of traces, for the corresponding flight phase and corresponding flight parameter, for flights that do not manifest atypicality in that phase.

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling project of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies to enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. Information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. In Volume I, the concept of the Scenario was introduced as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. In this Volume II, that study continues into the analyses of the free narratives to gain understanding as to why the incident occurred from the reporter s perspective. While this is just the first experiment, the results of our approach are encouraging and indicate that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that can achieve the level of consistency and reliability of human analysis of narrative reports.

Ferryman, Thomas A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Energy Index For Aircraft Maneuvers

Method and system for analyzing, separately or in combination, kinetic energy and potential energy and/or their time derivatives, measured or estimated or computed, for an aircraft in approach phase or in takeoff phase, to determine if the aircraft is or will be put in an anomalous configuration in order to join a stable approach path or takeoff path. A 3 reference value of kinetic energy andor potential energy (or time derivatives thereof) is provided, and a comparison index .for the estimated energy and reference energy is computed and compared with a normal range of index values for a corresponding aircraft maneuver. If the computed energy index lies outside the normal index range, this phase of the aircraft is identified as anomalous, non-normal or potentially unstable.

Chidester, Thomas R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) project of NASA s Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies that will enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. This presents a particular challenge in the aviation system where people are key components and human error is frequently cited as a major contributing factor or cause of incidents and accidents. In the aviation "world", information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. This report describes a conceptual model and an approach to automated analyses of textual data sources for the subjective perspective of the reporter of the incident to aid in understanding why an incident occurred. It explores a first-generation process for routinely searching large databases of textual reports of aviation incident or accidents, and reliably analyzing them for causal factors of human behavior (the why of an incident). We have defined a generic structure of information that is postulated to be a sound basis for defining similarities between aviation incidents. Based on this structure, we have introduced the simplifying structure, which we call the Scenario as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. We believe that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that will aid aviation-safety experts to understand the systemic issues that are conducive to human error.

Maille, Nicolas P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Identification of atypical flight patterns

Method and system for analyzing aircraft data, including multiple selected flight parameters for a selected phase of a selected flight, and for determining when the selected phase of the selected flight is atypical, when compared with corresponding data for the same phase for other similar flights. A flight signature is computed using continuous-valued and discrete-valued flight parameters for the selected flight parameters and is optionally compared with a statistical distribution of other observed flight signatures, yielding atypicality scores for the same phase for other similar flights. A cluster analysis is optionally applied to the flight signatures to define an optimal collection of clusters. A level of atypicality for a selected flight is estimated, based upon an index associated with the cluster analysis.

Statler, Irving C.↗