Ferre, Ty | Engineering Papers

DOE OSTI2021

Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (KGML) Platform to Predict Integrated Water Cycle and Associated extremes

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated). Science Challenge: Although advanced predictive capabilities of the water cycle are critical to address environmental needs and develop sustainable solutions for energy demands, there is no robust framework, to say the least, that seamlessly integrates local to intermediate to global scales and a gamut of biogeophysical information to enhance understanding of the integrated water cycle and its associated extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-scale Multi-physics Scientific Machine Learning for Water Cycle Extreme Events Identification, Labelling, Representation, and Characterization

Impacts of climate are usually felt through extreme events such as droughts, floods, thunderstorms, windstorms, wildfires, and so on, that are intimately tied to the water cycle. Predicting the frequency and severity of extreme events under climate change remains a significant challenge; meanwhile, the mechanisms and impacts of these extremes are far from well understood. There are several major science challenges: (1) Lack of labelled extreme events data and missing standards in defining extremes; (2) Computational demand of high-resolution ensemble climate modeling; (3) Modeling the multiscale multi-physics hierarchical structure of compound extremes; (4) Lack of understanding of mechanisms of extreme events; (5) Large uncertainty in extreme events impacts on infrastructure; (6) Subjective assessment of weather-related risk from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales and lack of metrics for risk assessment and mitigation control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗