Engineering topics

Falconer, D. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Falconer, D. A..

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2019

A CME-Producing Solar Eruption from the Interior of an Emerging Bipolar Active Region

In a negative-polarity coronal hole, magnetic flux emergence, seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory's {SDO) Helioseismic Magnetic lmager (HMI), begins at approximately 19:00 UT on March 3, 2016. The emerged magnetic field produced sunspots, which NOAA numbered 12514 two days later. The emerging magnetic field is largely bipolar with the opposite-polarity fluxes spreading apart overall, but there is simultaneously some convergence and cancellation of opposite-polarity flux at the polarity inversion line (PIL) inside the emerging bipole. In the first fifteen hours after emergence onset, three obvious eruptions occur, observed in the coronal EUV images from SDO's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). The first two erupt from separate segments of the external PIL between the emerging positve-polarity flux and the extant surrounding negative-polarity flux, with the exploding magnetic field being prepared and triggered by flux cancellation at the external PIL. The emerging bipole shows obvious overall left-handed shear and/or twist in its magnetic field. The focus of th is poster is the third and largest eruption, which comes from inside the emerging bipole and blows it open to produce a CME observed by SOHO/LASCO. That eruption is preceded by flux cancellation at the emerging bipole's interior PIL, cancellation that plausibly builds a sheared and twisted flux rope above the interior PIL and finally triggers the blow-out eruption of the flux rope via photospheric-convection•driven slow tether-cutting reconnection of the legs of the sheared core field, low above the interior PIL, as proposed by van Ballegooijen & Martens (1989) and Moore & Roumeliotis (1992). The production of this eruption is a (perhaps rare) counterexample to solar eruptions that result from external collisional shearing between opposite polarities from two distinct emerging and/or emerged bipoles (Chintzoglou et al. 2019).

Adams, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Onset of a Solar Filament Eruption Without a Slow-Rise Phase

We observe a filament eruption of 23 Jan 2012 using Atmospheric Imaging Array (AIA) data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Relatively cool emissions (193 Ang. channel) show a filament with a rise-toward-eruption trajectory that is relatively smooth, without a distinct, linearly-increasing "slow rise" followed by an abrupt "fast rise," as is often seen in other events. Detailed investigations of some of those two-phase events suggested that they were triggered by magnetic flux cancellation. Here however, observations of hotter emissions (335 Ang. channel) show an adjacent eruption, invisible in 193 Ang., occurred just prior to the filament's eruption start. We surmise that the hotter eruption destabilized the 193 Ang. filament, triggering its eruption onset. In this way, the filament's smooth eruption trajectory is indicative of a non-tether-cutting eruption-onset mechanism for the filament.

Knox, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Dichotomy of Solar Coronal Jets: Standard Jets and Blowout Jets

By examining many X-ray jets in Hinode/XRT coronal X-ray movies of the polar coronal holes, we found that there is a dichotomy of polar X-ray jets. About two thirds fit the standard reconnection picture for coronal jets, and about one third are another type. We present observations indicating that the non-standard jets are counterparts of erupting-loop H alpha macrospicules, jets in which the jet-base magnetic arch undergoes a miniature version of the blowout eruptions that produce major CMEs. From the coronal X-ray movies we present in detail two typical standard X-ray jets and two typical blowout X-ray jets that were also caught in He II 304 Angstrom snapshots from STEREO/EUVI. The distinguishing features of blowout X-ray jets are (1) X-ray brightening inside the base arch in addition to the outside bright point that standard jets have, (2) blowout eruption of the base arch's core field, often carrying a filament of cool (T ~10(exp 4) - 10(exp 5) K) plasma, and (3) an extra jet-spire strand rooted close to the bright point. We present cartoons showing how reconnection during blowout eruption of the base arch could produce the observed features of blowout X-ray jets. We infer that (1) the standard-jet/blowout-jet dichotomy of coronal jets results from the dichotomy of base arches that do not have and base arches that do have enough shear and twist to erupt open, and (2) there is a large class of spicules that are standard jets and a comparably large class of spicules that are blowout jets.

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

Barghouty, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Probing the Magnetic Causes of CMEs: Free Magnetic Energy More Important Than Either Size Or Twist

To probe the magnetic causes of CMEs, we have examined three types of magnetic measures: size, twist and total nonpotentiality (or total free magnetic energy) of an active region. Total nonpotentiality is roughly the product of size times twist. For predominately bipolar active regions, we have found that total nonpotentiality measures have the strongest correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 75% prediction success rate), while size and twist measures each have a weaker correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 65% prediction success rate) (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, ApJ, 644, 2006). For multipolar active regions, we find that the CME-prediction success rates for total nonpotentiality and size are about the same as for bipolar active regions. We also find that the size measure correlation with CME productivity is nearly all due to the contribution of size to total nonpotentiality. We have a total nonpotentiality measure that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram of the active region and that is as strongly correlated with CME productivity as are any of our total-nonpotentiality measures from deprojected vector magnetograms. We plan to further expand our sample by using MDI magnetograms of each active region in our sample to determine its total nonpotentiality and size on each day that the active region was within 30 deg. of disk center. The resulting increase in sample size will improve our statistics and allow us to investigate whether the nonpotentiality threshold for CME production is nearly the same or significantly different for multipolar regions than for bipolar regions. In addition, we will investigate the time rates of change of size and total nonpotentiality as additional causes of CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Magnetic Causes of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections: Dominance of the Free Magnetic Energy Over the Magnetic Twist Alone

We examine the magnetic causes of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by examining, along with the correlations of active-region magnetic measures with each other, the correlations of these measures with active-region CME productivity observed in time windows of a few days, either centered on or extending forward from the day of the magnetic measurement. The measures are from 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions observed within -30" of disk center by the Marshal Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph. From each magnetogram, we extract six whole-active-region measures twice, once from the original plane-of-the-sky magnetogram and again a h r deprojection of the magnetogram to disk center. Three of the measures are alternative measures of the total nonpotentiality of the active region, two are alternative measures of the overall twist in the active-region's magnetic field, and one is a measure of the magnetic size of the active region (the active region's magnetic flux content). From the deprojected magnetograms, we find evidence that (1) magnetic twist and magnetic size are separate but comparably strong causes of active-region CME Productivity, and (2) the total free magnetic energy in an active region's magnetic field is a stronger determinant of the active region's CME productivity than is the field's overall twist (or helicity) alone. From comparison of results from the non-deprojected magnetograms with corresponding results from the deprojected magnetograms, we find evidence that (for prediction of active-region CME productivity and for further studies of active-region magnetic size as a cause of CMEs), for active regions within approx.30deg of disk center, active-region total nonpotentiality and flux content can be adequately measured from line-of-sight magnetograms, such as from SOH0 MDI.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Magnetic Causes of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections: Dominance of the Free Magnetic Energy over Either the Magnetic Twist or Size Alone

We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We have devised improved generalized measures of active-region nonpotentiality that apply to active regions of any degree of magnetic complexity, rather than being limited to bipolar active regions as our initial measures were. From a set of approx.50 active-regions, we have found that measures of total nonpotentiality have a 75-80% success rate n predicting whether an active region will produce a CME in 2 days after the magnetogram. This makes measures of total nonpotentiality a better predictor than either active-region size, or active region twist (size-normalized nonpotentiality), which have a approx.65% success rates. We have also found that we can measure from the line-of-sight magnetograms an active region's total nonpotentiality and the size, which allows use to use MDI to evaluate these quantities for 4-5 consecutive days for each active region, and to investigate if there is some combination of size and total nonpotentiality that have a stronger predictive power than does total nonpotentiality. This work was funded by NASA through its LWS TR&T Program and its Solar and Heliospheric Physics SR&T Program, and by NSF through its Solar Terrestrial Research and SHINE programs.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, L(sub SGM), which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future CME productivity. To demonstrate that L(sub SGM) is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region s measured LsGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, L(sub SGM) is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of L(sub SGM) as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space based assets is of value to NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars)

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Shape and Reconnection of the Exploding Magnetic Field in the Onset of CMEs

From chromospheric and coronal images and line-of-sight and vector magnetograms of magnetic regions that produce CMEs, and from chromospheric and coronal movies of the onsets of CME eruptions, it appears that the magnetic field that explodes to drive the CME is initially the strongly sheared core of a magnetic arcade encasing a polarity dividing line in the magnetic flux. Before or during the onset of the explosion, the sheared core field becomes a flux rope, often carrying chromospheric material within it. For the erupting flux rope to drive the explosion, that is, for its magnetic energy content to decrease in the explosion, the flux rope's cross-sectional area must increase faster than its length. For instance, for isotropic expansion, the area increases as the square of the length, and the magnetic energy content of the flux rope decreases as the inverse of the length. The instability that initiates the eruption of the flux rope might be an ideal MHD kink instability, or might involve runaway tether-cutting reconnection. The reconnection begins below the flux rope (internal to the arcade) when the overall field configuration of the region is effectively that of a single bipole. When the flux rope resides in a multi- bipolar configuration having a magnetic null above the flux rope, the runaway tether- cutting reconnection might begin either below the flux rope or at the null above (external to) the arcade. We present examples of observed CME onsets that illustrate the above alternatives. In each example, reconnection below the flux rope begins early in the eruption. This indicates that internal tether cutting reconnection (classic tether-cutting reconnection) is important in unleashing the CME explosion in all cases, including those in which the explosion may be triggered by MHD kinking or by external reconnection (classic breakout reconnection).

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Prediction of Active-Region CME Productivity from Magnetograms

We report results of an expanded evaluation of whole-active-region magnetic measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity. Previously, in a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions observed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph, from each magnetogram we extracted a measure of the size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux a) and four measures of the nonpotentiality of the active region: the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the net vertical electric current I(sub N), and the net-current magnetic twist parameter alpha (sub IN). This sample size allowed us to show that each of the four nonpotentiality measures was statistically significantly correlated with active-region CME productivity in time windows of a few days centered on the day of the magnetogram. We have now added a fifth measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the best-constant-alpha magnetic twist parameter (alpha sub BC)), and have expanded the sample to 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of 31 bipolar active regions. This larger sample allows us to demonstrate statistically significant correlations of each of the five nonpotentiality measures with future CME productivity, in time windows of a few days starting from the day of the magnetogram. The two magnetic twist parameters (alpha (sub 1N) and alpha (sub BC)) are normalized measures of an active region s nonpotentially in that they do not depend directly on the size of the active region, while the other three nonpotentiality measures (L(sub SS), L(sub SG), and I(sub N)) are non-normalized measures in that they do depend directly on active-region size. We find (1) Each of the five nonpotentiality measures is statistically significantly correlated (correlation confidence level greater than 95%) with future CME productivity and has a CME prediction success rate of approximately 80%. (2) None of the nonpotentiality measures is a significantly better CME predictor than the others. (3) The active-region phi shows some correlation with CME productivity, but well below a statistically significant level (correlation confidence level less than approximately 80%; CME prediction success rate less than approximately 65%). (4) In addition to depending on magnetic twist, CME productivity appears to have some direct dependence on active-region size (rather than only an indirect dependence through a correlation of magnetic twist with active-region size), but it will take a still larger sample of active regions (50 or more) to certify this. (5) Of the five nonpotentiality measures, L(sub SG) appears to be the best for operational CME forecasting because it is as good or better a CME predictor than the others and it alone does not require a vector magnetogram; L(sub SG) can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram such as from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Magnetograms

We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality (magnetic shear and twist) and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From a set of 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary 2004, ApJ, submitted), we have found that (1) each of our 5 measures of active-region nonpotentiality has a 75-80% success rate in predicting whether an active region will produce a CME within 2 days after the magnetogram, (2) the correlation of each of these measures with CME production in this window is statistically significant (confidence level greater than 95%), (3) our measure of active-region size has a 65% success rate in predicting CMEs in this window, but (4) the correlation between active-region size and CME productivity is not statistically significant (confidence level approximately 80%). As part of the work under our pending 2003 LWS TR&T proposal, we will double our sample to approximately 70 active regions in order to demonstrate a statistically significant correlation between active-region size and CME productivity, and to determine whether this correlation is a byproduct of any Sun-produced correlation between magnetic twist and size of active regions. Since the 2002 LWS Science Workshop, we have found a measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the length of strong-gradient neutral line) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram, and we have generalized this measure and the corresponding measure from a vector magnetogram (the length of strong-shear neutral line) so that they can be applied to multiple-bipole complex active regions as well as to bipolar active regions. Preliminary results will be presented from application of these two generalized measures to our sample of bipolar active regions and to a new sample of multiple-bipole active regions.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

CME Prediction from Line-of-Sight Magnetogram

We have previously shown for bipolar active regions that measures of active-region nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms are correlated with active-region CME productivity. We have now obtained a measure from line-of-sight magnetograms that is well correlated both with our measures of active-region nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms and with active-region CME productivity. The measure is the length of strong-gradient main neutral line (L(sub G)). This is the length of the bipolar region's main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is greater than 150G, and the gradient in the line-of-sight field is greater than 50G/Mm. From the sample of 17 MSFC magnetograms of 12 basically bipolar active regions used in our previous paper, we find that L(sub G) is strongly correlated with one of our vector-magnetogram measures of nonpotentiality, the length of strong-gradient main neutral line L(sub SS) (99.7%). We also find that L(sub G) is as strongly correlated with CME productivity (99.7%) as is L(sub SS). Being obtainable from line-of-sight magnetograms, L(sub G) makes the much larger data set of line-of-sight magnetograms (i.e. from SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak) available for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no daylight, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems. This work was supported by funding from NSF's division of Atmospheric Sciences (Space Weather and Shine Programs) and by NASA's office of Space Science (Living with a Star program Solar and Heliospheric Physics Supporting Research and Technology program).

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 G) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 deg), and (2) that L(sub SS) is well correlated with the CME productivity of the active regions during the +/- 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub SS) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G) and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than or approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active-region CME productivity as is L(sub SS)(correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour-cadence full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active-region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Solar Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

We investigate the heating of the quiet corona by measuring the increase of coronal luminosity with the amount of magnetic flux in the underlying network at solar minimum when there were no active regions on the face of the Sun. The coronal luminosity is measured from Fe IX/X-Fe XII pairs of coronal images from SOHO/EIT. The network magnetic flux content is measured from SOHO/MDI magnetograms. We find that the luminosity of the corona in our quiet regions increases roughly in proportion to the square root of the magnetic flux content of the network and roughly in proportion to the length of the perimeter of the network magnetic flux clumps. From (1) this result, (2) other observations of many fine-scale explosive events at the edges of network flux clumps, and (3) a demonstration that it is energetically feasible for the heating of the corona in quiet regions to be driven by explosions of granule-sized sheared-core magnetic bipoles embedded in the edges of network flux clumps, we infer that in quiet regions that are not influenced by active regions the corona is mainly heated by such magnetic activity in the edges of the network flux clumps. Our observational results together with our feasibility analysis allow us to predict that (1) at the edges of the network flux clumps there are many transient sheared-core bipoles of the size and lifetime of granules and having transverse field strengths greater than approximately - 100 G, (2) approximately 30 of these bipoles are present per supergranule, and (3) most spicules are produced by explosions of these bipoles.

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

CME Prediction from Magnetograms

We have found that active regions that are likely to be CME productive can be identified from measures of their nonpotentiality from magnetograms. We have developed four different measures from vector magnetograms and another that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram. We find that all five measures are strongly correlated with CME productivity to a similar degree. Hence, all five are roughly equally good predictors of active-region CME productivity. Since the measures all have similar predictive ability, the measures that are easiest to reliably measure are the best for operational forecasting of CMEs. The two best measures are the length of strong-shear main neutral line L(sub SS) (the length of the main neutral line with the magnetic shear angle greater than 45deg and observed transverse field greater than 150G) and the length of strong-gradient main neutral line L(sub G) (the length of the main neutral line with line-of-sight magnetic field greater than 50G/Mm and potential transverse field greater than 150G). As L(sub G) is measured from line-of-sight magnetograms it opens the larger data base of SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak line-of-sight magnetograms for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no daylight, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Solar Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

We investigate the heating of the quiet corona by measuring the increase of coronal luminosity with the amount of magnetic flux in the underlying network at solar minimum when there were no active regions on the face of the Sun. The coronal luminosity is measured from Fe IX/X-Fe XII pairs of coronal images from SOHO/EIT. The network magnetic flux content is measured from SOHO/MDI magnetograms. We find that the luminosity of the corona in our quiet regions increases roughly in proportion to the square root of the magnetic flux content of the network and roughly in proportion to the length of the perimeter of the network magnetic flux clumps. From (1) this result, (2) other observations of many fine-scale explosive events at the edges of network flux clumps, and (3) a demonstration that it is energetically feasible for the heating of the corona in quiet regions to be driven by explosions of granule-sized sheared-core magnetic bipoles embedded in the edges of network flux clumps, we infer that in quiet regions that are not influenced by active regions the corona is mainly heated by such magnetic activity in the edges of the network flux clumps. Our observational results together with our feasibility analysis allow us to predict that (1) at the edges of the network flux clumps there are many transient sheared-core bipoles of the size and lifetime of granules and having transverse field strengths > approx. 100 G, (2) approx. 30 of these bipoles are present per supergranule, and (3) most spicules are produced by explosions of these bipoles.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Testing Fractal Methods on Observed and Simulated Solar Magnetograms

The term "magnetic complexity" has not been sufficiently quantified. To accomplish this, we must understand the relationship between the observed magnetic field of solar active regions and fractal dimension measurements. Using data from the Marshall Space Flight Center's vector magnetograph ranging from December 1991 to July 2001, we compare the results of several methods of calculating a fractal dimension, e.g., Hurst coefficient, the Higuchi method, power spectrum, and 2-D Wavelet Packet Analysis. In addition, we apply these methods to synthetic data, beginning with representations of very simple dipole regions, ending with regions that are magnetically complex.

Adams, M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong shear length Lss, the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 Guass (G)) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 degrees), and (2) that L(sub ss) is well correlated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity of the active regions during the plus or minus 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub ss) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G), and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with Lss (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active region CME productivity as is L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour cadence full disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗