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Evans, Randolph J.

Publications and source records attributed to Evans, Randolph J..

Delta 2 Explosion Plume Analysis Report

A Delta II rocket exploded seconds after liftoff from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) on 17 January 1997. The cloud produced by the explosion provided an opportunity to evaluate the models which are used to track potentially toxic dispersing plumes and clouds at CCAFS. The primary goal of this project was to conduct a case study of the dispersing cloud and the models used to predict the dispersion resulting from the explosion. The case study was conducted by comparing mesoscale and dispersion model results with available meteorological and plume observations. This study was funded by KSC under Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) option hours. The models used in the study are part of the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS) and include the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), HYbrid Particle And Concentration Transport (HYPACT), and Rocket Exhaust Effluent Dispersion Model (REEDM). The primary observations used for explosion cloud verification of the study were from the National Weather Service's Weather Surveillance Radar 1988-Doppler (WSR-88D). Radar reflectivity measurements of the resulting cloud provided good estimates of the location and dimensions of the cloud over a four-hour period after the explosion. The results indicated that RAMS and HYPACT models performed reasonably well. Future upgrades to ERDAS are recommended.

Evans, Randolph J.

Meteorological Monitoring And Warning Computer Network

Meteorological monitoring system (MMS) computer network tracks weather conditions and issues warnings when weather hazards are about to occur. Receives data from such meteorological instruments as wind sensors on towers and lightning detectors, and compares data with weather restrictions specified for outdoor activities. If weather violates restriction, network generates audible and visible alarms to alert people involved in activity. Also displays weather and toxic diffusion data and disseminates weather forecasts, advisories, and warnings to workstations.

Evans, Randolph J.

Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System(ERDAS)

The emergency response dose assessment system (ERDAS) is a protype software and hardware system configured to produce routine mesoscale meteorological forecasts and enhanced dispersion estimates on an operational basis for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) region. ERDAS provides emergency response guidance to operations at KSC/CCAS in the case of an accidental hazardous material release or an aborted vehicle launch. This report describes the evaluation of ERDAS including: evaluation of sea breeze predictions, comparison of launch plume location and concentration predictions, case study of a toxic release, evaluation of model sensitivity to varying input parameters, evaluation of the user interface, assessment of ERDA's operational capabilities, and a comparison of ERDAS models to the ocean breeze dry gultch diffusion model.

Evans, Randolph J.

The Implementation and Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) at Cape Canaveral Air Station/Kennedy Space Center

The Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) is a system which combines the mesoscale meteorological prediction model RAMS with the diffusion models REEDM and HYPACT. Operators use a graphical user interface to run the models for emergency response and toxic hazard planning at CCAS/KCS. The Applied Meteorology Unit has been evaluating the ERDAS meteorological and diffusion models and obtained the following results: (1) RAMS adequately predicts the occurrence of the daily sea breeze during non-cloudy conditions for several cases. (2) RAMS shows a tendency to predict the sea breeze to occur slightly earlier and to move it further inland than observed. The sea breeze predictions could most likely be improved by better parameterizing the soil moisture and/or sea surface temperatures. (3) The HYPACT/REEDM/RAMS models accurately predict launch plume locations when RAMS winds are accurate and when the correct plume layer is modeled. (4) HYPACT does not adequately handle plume buoyancy for heated plumes since all plumes are presently treated as passive tracers. Enhancements should be incorporated into the ERDAS as it moves toward being a fully operational system and as computer workstations continue to increase in power and decrease in cost. These enhancements include the following: activate RAMS moisture physics; use finer RAMS grid resolution; add RAMS input parameters (e.g. soil moisture, radar, and/or satellite data); automate data quality control; implement four-dimensional data assimilation; modify HYPACT plume rise and deposition physics; and add cumulative dosage calculations in HYPACT.

Evans, Randolph J.