Engineering topics

Evans, Antony D.

Publications and source records attributed to Evans, Antony D..

11 records

NASA NTRS2020

Benefit Assessment of the Integrated Demand Management Concept for Multiple New York Metroplex Airports

Benefits of the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept were assessed utilizing a newly developed automated simulation capability called ‘Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation (TMIAutoSim).’ The IDM concept focuses on improving traffic flow management (TFM) by coordinating the FAA’s strategic Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) with its more tactical Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system. The IDM concept leverages a new TFMS capability called Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to strategically pre-condition traffic demand flowing into a TBFM-managed arrival environment, where TBFM is responsible for tactically managing traffic by generating precise arrival schedules. The IDM concept was developed over a multi-year effort, focusing on solving New York metroplex airport arrival problems. TMIAutoSim closely mimics NASA’s high-fidelity simulation capabilities while enabling more data to be collected at higher speed. Using this new capability, the IDM concept was evaluated using realistic traffic across various weather scenarios. Six representative weather days were selected after clustering three months of historical data. For those selected six days, Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) and LaGuardia Airport (LGA) arrival traffic scenarios were developed. For each selected day, the historical data were analyzed to accurately simulate actual operations and the weather impact of the day. The current day operations and the IDM concept operations were simulated for the same weather scenarios and the results were compared. The selected six days were categorized into two groups: ‘clear weather’ for days without Ground Delay Programs (GDP) and ‘convective weather’ for days with GDP and significant weather around New York metroplex airports. For the clear weather scenarios, IDM operations reduced last minute, unanticipated departure delays for short-haul flights within TBFM control boundaries with minimal to no impact on throughput and total delay. For the convective weather scenarios, IDM significantly reduced delays and increased throughput to the destination airports.

Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation↗

NASA NTRS2019

Accrued Delay Application in Trajectory-Based Operations

The air traffic management system lacks integration among its elements often due to using inconsistent information, models, and metrics about the traffic. Transitioning to trajectory-based operations, whereby flights are managed by full trajectories in space and time, will enable more integration, with the help of increased automation. Building on trajectory-based operations, an "accrued delay" metric is proposed, which continuously measures the amount of delay that a flight has accumulated up to the current time, including delays incurred during the current flight and inherited from previous flights through the turnaround process. Through a time-based metering and scheduling example, we show how using accrued delay as a metric can help integrate the decision-making across multiple decision horizons, leading to more efficient and balanced access to airspace services. We show that when prioritizing flights that have already accrued high delay because of a constrained runway resource, significant gains are achieved in terms of reducing total delay and its variance. We studied the sensitivity of these gains to numerous factors, such as time-based versus distance-based horizons, horizon size, and errors in conformance to scheduled times.

delay; trajectory-based operations; time-based flo↗

NASA NTRS2019

Sherlock Data Warehouse

This slide deck provides an overview of the data and resources available in the Sherlock Data Warehouse. Sherlock was developed and is currently maintained by the Aviation Systems Division at NASA Ames Research Center. Sherlock contains a valuable collection of flight, air traffic management, and weather data. But Sherlock is not just a data archive. Sherlock also includes tools and resources to access, download, and visualize data, as well as resources to process the data. This overview summarizes Sherlock data sources, demonstrates data analytics and visualization with MicroStrategy, illustrates disparate data integration using the ATM Knowledge graph, and presents a machine learning use case using the Big Data system.

data warehouse↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

CTOP↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

integrated demand management↗

NASA NTRS2017

Development and Validation of an Automated Simulation Capability in Support of Integrated Demand Management

Integrated Demand Management (IDM) is a near- to mid-term NASA concept that proposes to address mismatches in air traffic system demand and capacity by using strategic flow management capabilities to pre-condition demand into the more tactical Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM). This paper describes an automated simulation capability to support IDM concept development. The capability closely mimics existing human-in-the-loop (HITL) capabilities, while automating both the human components and collaboration between operational systems, and speeding up the real-time aircraft simulations. Such a capability allows for parametric studies to be carried out that can inform the HITL simulations, identifying breaking points and parameter values at which significant changes in system behavior occur. The paper describes the initial validation of the automated simulation capability against results from previous IDM HITL experiments, quantifying the differences. The simulator is then used to explore the performance of the IDM concept under the simple scenario of a capacity constrained airport under a wide range of wind conditions.

Traffic Flow Management↗

NASA NTRS2017

Development and Validation of an Automated Simulation Capability in Support of Integrated Demand Management

Integrated Demand Management (IDM) is a near- to mid-term NASA concept that proposes to address mismatches in air traffic system demand and capacity by using strategic flow management capabilities to pre-condition demand into the more tactical Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM). This paper describes an automated simulation capability to support IDM concept development. The capability closely mimics existing human-in-the-loop (HITL) capabilities, automating both the human components and collaboration between operational systems, and speeding up the real-time aircraft simulations. Such a capability allows for parametric studies that will inform the HITL simulations, identifying breaking points and parameter values at which significant changes in system behavior occur. This paper also describes the initial validation of individual components of the automated simulation capability, and an example application comparing the performance of the IDM concept under two TBFM scheduling paradigms. The results and conclusions from this simulation compare closely to those from previous HITL simulations using similar scenarios, providing an initial validation of the automated simulation capability.

Integrated Demand Management↗

NASA NTRS2017

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

operational acceptability↗

NASA NTRS2016

Improving Operational Acceptability of Dynamic Weather Routes Through Analysis of Commonly Use Routings

The Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) tool is a ground-based trajectory automation system that continuously and automatically analyzes active in-flight aircraft in en route airspace to find simple modifications to flight plan routes that can save significant flying time, while avoiding weather and considering traffic conflicts, airspace sector congestion, special use airspace, and FAA routing restrictions. Trials of the DWR system have shown that significant delay savings are possible. However, some DWR advised routes are also rejected by dispatchers or modified before being accepted. Similarly, of those sent by dispatchers to flight crews as proposed route change requests, many are not accepted by air traffic control, or are modified before implementation as Center route amendments. Such actions suggest that the operational acceptability of DWR advised route corrections could be improved, which may reduce workload and increase delay savings. This paper analyzes the historical usage of different flight routings, varying from simple waypoint pairs to lengthy strings of waypoints incorporating jet routes, in order to improve DWR route acceptability. An approach is developed that can be incorporated into DWR, advising routings with high historical usage and savings potential similar to that of the nominal DWR advisory. It is hypothesized that modifying a nominal DWR routing to one that is commonly used, and nearby, will result in more actual savings since common routings are generally familiar and operationally acceptable to air traffic control. The approach allows routing segments with high historical usage to be concatenated to form routes that meet all DWR constraints. The relevance of a route's historical usage to its acceptance by dispatchers and air traffic control is quantified by analyzing historical DWR data. Results indicate that while historical usage may be less of a concern to flight dispatchers accepting or rejecting DWR advised route corrections, it may be important to air traffic control acceptance of DWR routes.

dynamic weather routes↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular inefficiency that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based metering of internal departures, or TMA scheduling. Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot be easily fitted into the overhead stream. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. Depending on how the double delay is defined between 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent of arrivals at EWR experienced double delays in this period. However, this represents between 21 percent and 62 percent of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling. A deep dive into the data reveals that two causes of high internal departure scheduling delays are upstream flights making up time between their estimated departure clearance times (EDCTs) and entry into time based metering, which undermines the sequencing and spacing underlying the flight EDCTs, and high demand on TMA, when TMA airborne metering delays are high. Data mining methods (currently) including logistic regression, support vector machines and K-nearest neighbors are used to predict the occurrence of double delays and high internal departure scheduling delays with accuracies up to 0.68. So far, key indicators of double delay and high internal departure scheduling delay are TMA virtual runway queue size, and the degree to which estimated runway demand based on TMA estimated times of arrival has changed relative to the estimated runway demand based on EDCTs. However, more analysis is needed to confirm this.

traffic management advisor↗

NASA NTRS2002

Air Traffic Control Response to Delays: A System Study of Newark International Airport

Airport delays are a significant problem in the United States air transportation system. Between 1999 and 2000 the number of flights delayed increased by 20 percent despite only a 0.4% increase in total operations. Newark International Airport (EWR), one of New York City's primary airports, is one of the airports in the United States most impacted by delays. Newark had the highest percentage of operations delayed in 1999, and was second only to LaGuardia Airport in 2000. Nearly 85% of delays at Newark are caused by adverse weather impacting an airport that may be characterized as having limited capacity and a very full schedule. Although Newark is heavily impacted by weather, delays have not increased significantly since 1998. This indicates that the airlines, air traffic control (ATC), and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey have successfully adapted. On June 29, 2000, a research team from MIT visited Newark airport to assess the effectiveness of any adaptations made, and to collect data on airline and ATC departure operations, and of the national and local weather affecting the airport. Airline and ATC personnel were also interviewed. Results of this study indicate that airspace capacity limitations downstream of the airport are a primary flow constraint at the airport, and that these constraints are the source of most surface delays. A number of tactical ATC responses to delays were examined, including the application of restrictions, re-routing with the help of the National Playbook, and the use of decision-aiding tools such as the Dynamic Spacing Program (DSP) and the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Improved interfacility communications and further utilization of runway 11-29 were identified as other tactical responses to delays, whilst the formation of the Air Traffic Control System Command Center and the New York Airspace redesign were identified as thekey strategic ATC responses to delays. Particularly the New York airspace redesign has great potential to reduce delays at the airport. Because delays at Newark are caused by downstream flow constraints, the responses at the airport can be applied to other airports as delays from downstream constraints increase. Such an increase in delays system wide from downstream constraints is inevitable as the system becomes more congested.

Evans, Antony D.↗