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Edwards, Paul

Publications and source records attributed to Edwards, Paul.

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Improvements in the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) has significantly evolved since the first release of the point source database in 1993. The NSRDB has been widely used by the solar energy industry to provide long-term time-series solar resource data for various project phases. The NSRDB represents the state of the art in the satellite-based estimation of solar resource information and uses a unique physics-based modeling approach that allows improvements in accuracy with the deployment of the next-generation geostationary satellites. This poster provides an overview of (1) the improved spatiotemporal resolution; (2) on-demand services and their applications; (3) future Improvements, such as a new direct normal irradiance model and new methods to gap-fill missing data using physics-guided machine learning; (4) data quality; and (5) data dissemination.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) Fiscal Years 2019-2021(Final Report)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is the leading public source of high-resolution solar resource data in the United States, with more than 166,000 users annually. This database represents the state of the art in satellite-based estimation of solar resource information and uses a unique physics-based modeling approach that enables improvements in accuracy with the deployment of the next-generation geostationary satellites. Making the highest quality, state-of-the-art, regularly updated data sets available on a timely basis for users reduces costs of solar deployment by providing accurate information for siting studies and system output prediction, and thereby reduces levelized cost of energy. Also, high-resolution information from the NSRDB enables moving beyond levelized cost of energy when valuing the impact of renewables on the grid. Additionally, the NSRDB enables the integration of large amounts of solar on the grid by providing critical information about solar availability and variability that is used to enhance grid reliability and power quality.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coordinated Ramping Product and Regulation Reserve Procurements in CAISO and MISO using Multi-Scale Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts (Pro2R)

How can probabilistic solar forecasts lower costs and improve reliability for independent system operator (ISO) markets? We tackle this question in three steps. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty in those forecasts to error distributions for net load ramps for the California ISO (CAISO) using statistical and machine learning methods. Projected net load errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Finally, a multi-period look-ahead production cost model quantifies how conditional ramp requirements can a) decrease operating costs by lowering requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods, and b) reduce generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. In addition to the products just described (quantification of solar uncertainty, its translation into requirements for ramp capability product, and quantification of the benefits of more accurate ramp requirements), this project also developed a visualization system that alerts system operators of ramp and uncertainty conditions within the network based on solar forecasts. The system is called Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RaVIS). These four products represent significant advances in the state-of-the-art of probabilistic solar forecasting, development of weather-informed reserve requirements, production costing methods for estimating the benefits of more accurate reserve requirements, and visualization of system status, respectively. Yet the products are also practical and can be immediately implemented, potentially enabling system operators to save millions of dollars in ramp product procurement costs per year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Southeast Asia Solar Resource Data [Slides]

Lack of access to high-quality, publicly available, time series solar data to inform decisions that will transform energy sectors in Southeast Asia is a challenge. The solution is to level the playing field by offering free, high-quality, robust solar data to inform private sector investment and policymaking. This is done by (1) leveraging deep NREL expertise in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, high-performance computing, and cloud-based data dissemination, (2) producing and validating high spatial and temporal resolution solar resource data, (3) making data available on the USAID-funded global Renewable Energy Data Explorer platform, (4) providing capacity building for data and applications, and (5) informing future demand-driven tool development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2020

Shield to Pin Coupling of Lightning-Like Transients on Payload Umbilical Cables on a Launch Pad

In this paper we describe in-situ testing of a long payload umbilical, on a launch site, injected with “lightning- like” transients and describe resulting pin-to-pin voltages. Injections and voltage measurements near the ground support equipment room, as well as at a location near the payload junction box, are made. The umbilical cables tested include an outer over-braid and the inner conductor coupling is examined for open circuit, short-circuit and various loads representative of spacecraft input impedances. This testing is important because the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) where the lightning occurrence is the highest in the United States, is the primary launch site for Launch Services Program spacecraft customers. Lightning planning is essential but developing a lightning plan is often overlooked or not adequately analyzed leaving the spacecraft vulnerable to time delays or even damage when lightning occurs. At other popular launch sites like Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) where lightning occurs less often, although at the same or greater intensity when it does occur, lightning planning is often completely ignored by the spacecraft. The two major questions to be addressed in the lightning plan are what retesting should be done to establish a “goodness” level and what is the trigger criteria for this testing? The spacecraft will typically use a standard spacecraft check-out procedure to address the necessary retesting, but determining the trigger criteria is often an issue. For instance, a spacecraft needs to understand what their immunity is to a certain lightning magnitude and location. Determining the amount of current that can be coupled onto a spacecraft umbilical can be calculated by using worst case assumptions or measured with current probes and current measurement devices. Spacecraft can also determine what pin-to-pin voltages they are sensitive to, however pin-to-pin voltage measurements are not typically taken during the strike due to the invasive nature of this measurement. In this paper, we present detailed data on the shield to pin voltage transfer functions to provide insight to the spacecraft developers for lightning retest criteria planning. The results from this unique testing opportunity provide essential details on specific coupling mechanisms affecting spacecraft hardware that interfaces with the ground support equipment. This missing link between cable shield currents and payload susceptibility voltages has been methodically tested and representative data presented.

Trout, Dawn↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Transient Pin-Stress Requirements for Spacecraft Launching in Lightning Environments. Pain Free Analysis to Alleviate Those Pin Stress Headaches

Spacecraft are generally protected from direct lightning attachment by encapsulation within the payload fairing of a launch vehicle and the ground structures that exist at the launch site. Regardless of where lightning strikes, potentially damaging indirect effects prevail from the coupling of electromagnetic fields into a loop created by outer shield of the payload umbilical. The energy coupled into individual spacecraft circuits is dependent on the umbilical current drive, the cable transfer impedance and the source/ load circuitry, and the reference potential used. Lightning induced transient susceptibility of the spacecraft avionics needs to be fully understood in order to define realistic re-test criteria in the event of a lightning occurrence during the launch campaign. Use of standards such as RTCA/DO-160 & SAE 5412 has some applicability but do not represent the indirect environment adequately. This paper evaluates the launch pad environments, the measurement data available, and computer simulations to provide pain-free analysis to alleviate the transient pin-stress headaches for spacecraft launching in Lightning environments.

Induced Transient↗