Engineering topics

Edwards, Morgan R.

Publications and source records attributed to Edwards, Morgan R..

9 records

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing equitable value chains for the global hydrogen economy

Hydrogen is a rapidly growing focus for countries seeking to develop green industries, but there are many questions about how the nascent global hydrogen economy will develop, and what this implies for equitable sharing of benefits and burdens between nations. In this perspective we summarize emerging trends in national hydrogen strategies and develop recommendations for researchers and policymakers to center equity in hydrogen development. This will require integrating innovation and development perspectives on international technology transfer, developing more detailed representation of hydrogen trade in systems models, building equity considerations into national and international planning processes, and establishing robust technology transfer efforts. In conclusion, policymakers will also need to grapple with the difficulties of verifying life cycle emissions of hydrogen if hydrogen trade emerges as a significant trend, potentially requiring new methods of emissions accounting and trade reforms that prioritize international equity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO 2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO 2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Equity and modeling in sustainability science: Examples and opportunities throughout the process

Equity is core to sustainability, but current interventions to enhance sustainability often fall short in adequately addressing this linkage. Models are important tools for informing action, and their development and use present opportunities to center equity in process and outcomes. This Perspective highlights progress in integrating equity into systems modeling in sustainability science, as well as key challenges, tensions, and future directions. We present a conceptual framework for equity in systems modeling, focused on its distributional, procedural, and recognitional dimensions. We discuss examples of how modelers engage with these different dimensions throughout the modeling process and from across a range of modeling approaches and topics, including water resources, energy systems, air quality, and conservation. Synthesizing across these examples, we identify significant advances in enhancing procedural and recognitional equity by reframing models as tools to explore pluralism in worldviews and knowledge systems; enabling models to better represent distributional inequity through new computational techniques and data sources; investigating the dynamics that can drive inequities by linking different modeling approaches; and developing more nuanced metrics for assessing equity outcomes. We also identify important future directions, such as an increased focus on using models to identify pathways to transform underlying conditions that lead to inequities and move toward desired futures. By looking at examples across the diverse fields within sustainability science, we argue that there are valuable opportunities for mutual learning on how to use models more effectively as tools to support sustainable and equitable futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The role of corporate investment in start-ups for climate-tech innovation

Enabling and accelerating the full potential of energy innovation is a critical component of the global policy response to climate change. Incentivizing start-ups advancing climate-tech (i.e., products and services related to clean energy and climate change), has become central to innovation policy because start-ups are nimble (compared to incumbents), can quickly focus on bringing new technologies to market, and simultaneously create new jobs and catalyze local industries. Public policies to support climate-tech start-ups and efforts such as Mission Innovation tend to focus on increasing government spending (e.g., grants for research and development) or on creating demand pull for new technologies (e.g., feed-in-tariffs). But to go from research and development to widespread adoption of new products and services, start-ups need to grow and scale, and this requires support from private investors. Yet, research on how different investors can shape the direction of climate innovation—and how public policy can incentivize private investment in climate-tech start-ups to support the public good—is surprisingly sparse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Support for climate policy researchers

In the past 2 years, the European Union and the United States announced plans to spend $573 and $391 billion, respectively, through 2030 on climate actions and passed landmark legislation such as the US Inflation Reduction Act. Although unprecedented in size and scope, these combined investments of $964 billion pale in comparison to the more than $4 trillion in global clean energy investment needed annually by 2030 to stay on track for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Furthermore, to maximize the impact of this public money, efficient policies informed by independent, objective analysis will be needed. Yet scientists who commit to policy-relevant research face unique challenges that must be addressed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Satellite Data Applications for Sustainable Energy Transitions

Transitioning to a sustainable energy system poses a massive challenge to communities, nations, and the global economy in the next decade and beyond. A growing portfolio of satellite data products is available to support this transition. Satellite data complement other information sources to provide a more complete picture of the global energy system, often with continuous spatial coverage over targeted areas or even the entire Earth. We find that satellite data are already being applied to a wide range of energy issues with varying information needs, from planning and operation of renewable energy projects, to tracking changing patterns in energy access and use, to monitoring environmental impacts and verifying the effectiveness of emissions reduction efforts. While satellite data could play a larger role throughout the policy and planning lifecycle, there are technical, social, and structural barriers to their increased use. We conclude with a discussion of opportunities for satellite data applications to energy and recommendations for research to maximize the value of satellite data for sustainable energy transitions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Momentum to phase out unabated coal use is growing globally. This transition is critical to meeting the Paris climate goals but can potentially lead to large amounts of stranded assets, especially in regions with newer and growing coal fleets. Here we combine plant-level data with a global integrated assessment model to quantify changes in global stranded asset risks from coal-fired power plants across regions and over time. With new plant proposals, cancellations, and retirements over the past five years, global net committed emissions in 2030 from existing and planned coal plants declined by 3.3 GtCO 2 (25%). While these emissions are now roughly in line with initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, they remain far off track from longer-term climate goals. Progress made in 2021 towards no new coal can potentially avoid a 24% (503 GW) increase in capacity and a 55% ($520 billion) increase in stranded assets under 1.5 °C. Stranded asset risks fall disproportionately on emerging Asian economies with newer and growing coal fleets. Recent no new coal commitments from major coal financers can potentially reduce stranding of international investments by over 50%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States

Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗