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Dye, James E.

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Rationales for the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria

Since natural and triggered lightning are demonstrated hazards to launch vehicles, payloads, and spacecraft, NASA and the Department of Defense (DoD) follow the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) for launches from Federal Ranges. The LLCC were developed to prevent future instances of a rocket intercepting natural lightning or triggering a lightning flash during launch from a Federal Range. NASA and DoD utilize the Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP) to establish and develop robust rationale from which the criteria originate. The rationale document also contains appendices that provide additional scientific background, including detailed descriptions of the theory and observations behind the rationales. The LLCC in whole or part are used across the globe due to the rigor of the documented criteria and associated rationale. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) adopted the LLCC in 2006 for commercial space transportation and the criteria were codified in the FAA's Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) for Safety of an Expendable Launch Vehicle (Appendix G to 14 CFR Part 417, (G417)) and renamed Lightning Flight Commit Criteria in G417.

Lightning Advisory Panel

Rationales for the Lightning Flight-Commit Criteria

Since natural and artificially-initiated (or "triggered") lightning are demonstrated hazards to the launch of space vehicles, the American space program has responded by establishing a set of Lightning Flight Commit Criteria (LFCC), also known as Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC), and associated Definitions to mitigate the risk. The LLCC apply to all Federal Government ranges and similar LFCC have been adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration for application at state-operated and private spaceports. The LLCC and Definitions have been developed, reviewed, and approved over the years of the American space program, progressing from relatively simple rules in the mid-twentieth century (that were inadequate) to a complex suite for launch operations in the early 21st century. During this evolutionary process, a "Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP)" of top American scientists in the field of atmospheric electricity was established to guide it. Details of this process are provided in a companion document entitled "A History of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and the Lightning Advisory Panel for America s Space program" which is available as NASA Special Publication 2010-216283. As new knowledge and additional operational experience have been gained, the LFCC/LLCC have been updated to preserve or increase their safety and to increase launch availability. All launches of both manned and unmanned vehicles at all Federal Government ranges now use the same rules. This simplifies their application and minimizes the cost of the weather infrastructure to support them. Vehicle operators and Range safety personnel have requested that the LAP provide a detailed written rationale for each of the LFCC so that they may better understand and appreciate the scientific and operational justifications for them. This document provides the requested rationales

Willett, John C.

A History of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and the Lightning Advisory Panel for America's Space Program

The history of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) used at all spaceports under the jurisdiction of the United States is provided. The formation and history of the Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP) that now advises NASA, the Air Force and the Federal Aviation Administration on LLCC development and improvement is emphasized. The period covered extends from the early days of space flight through 2010. Extensive appendices provide significant detail about important aspects that are only summarized in the main text.

Merceret, Francis J.

Analysis of Proposed 2007-2008 Revisions to the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for United States Space Launches

Ascending space vehicles are vulnerable to both natural and triggered lightning. Launches under the jurisdiction of the United States are generally subject to a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider etal., 1999; Krider etal., 2006). The LLCC protect both the vehicle and the public by assuring that the launch does not take place in conditions posing a significant risk of a lightning strike to the ascending vehicle. Such a strike could destroy the vehicle and its payload, thus causing failure of the mission while releasing both toxic materials and debris. To assure safety, the LLCC are conservative and sometimes they may seriously limit the ability of the launch operator to fly as scheduled even when conditions are benign. In order to safely reduce the number of launch scrubs and delays attributable to the LLCC, the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM II) program was undertaken in 2000 - 2001. The effort was directed to collecting detailed high-quality data on the electrical, microphysical, radar and meteorological properties of thunderstorm-associated clouds. Details may be found in Dye et al., 2007. The expectation was that this additional knowledge would provide a better physical basis for the LLCC and allow them to be revised to be less restrictive while remaining at least as safe. That expectation was fulfilled, leading to significant revisions to the LLCC in 2003 and 2005. The 2005 revisions included the application of a new radar-derived quantity called the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) in the rules governing flight through anvil clouds. VAHIRR is the product of the volume averaged radar reflectivity times the radardetermined cloud thickness. The reflectivity average extends horizontally 5 km west, east, south and north of a point along the flight track and vertically from the 0 C isotherm to the top of the radar cloud. This region is defined as the "Specified Volume". See Dye et al., 2006 and Merceret et al., 2006 for a more thorough description of VAHIRR. The units are dBZ km (not dBZ per kilometer) and the threshold is 10 dBZ km. It is safe to fly through an anvil cloud for which VAHIRR is below this threshold everywhere along the flight track as long as (1) the entire cloud within 5 nmi. (9.26 km) of the flight track is colder than 0 C, (2) the points at which VAHIRR must be evaluated are at least 20 km from any active convective cores and recent lightning, and (3) the radar return is not being attenuated within the Specified Volume around those points.

Dye, James E.

Observed Enhancement of Reflectivity and Electric Field in Long-Lived Florida Anvils

A study of two long-lived Florida anvils showed that reflectivity greater than 20 dBZ increased in area, thickness and sometimes magnitude at mid-level well downstream of the convective cores. In these same regions electric fields maintained strengths greater than 10 kV m(sup -1) for many tens of minutes and became quite uniform over tens of kilometers. Millimetric aggregates persisted at 9 to 10 km for extended times and distances. Aggregation of ice particles enhanced by strong electric fields might have contributed to reflectivity growth in the early anvil, but is unlikely to explain observations further out in the anvil. The enhanced reflectivity and existence of small, medium and large ice particles far out into the anvil suggest that an updraft was acting, perhaps in weak convective cells formed by instability generated from the evaporation and melting of falling ice particles. We conclude that charge separation must have occurred in these anvils, perhaps at the melting level but also at higher altitudes, in order to maintain fields greater than 10 kV m(sup -1) at 9 to 10 km for extended periods of time over large distances. We speculate that charge separation occurred as a result of ice-ice particle collisions (without supercooled water being present) via either a noninductive or perhaps even an inductive mechanism, given the observed broad ice particle spectra, the strong pre-existing electric fields and the many tens of minutes available for particle interactions. The observations, particularly in the early anvil, show that the charge structure in these anvils was quite complex.

Dye, James E.

On the Magnitude of the Electric Field Near Thunderstorm-Associated Clouds

Electric field measurements made in and near clouds during two airborne field mill programs are presented. Aircraft equipped with multiple electric field mills and cloud physics sensors were flown near active convection and into thunderstorm anvil and debris clouds. The magnitude of the electric field was measured as a function of position with respect to the cloud edge in order to provide an observational basis for modifications to the lightning launch commit criteria (LLCC) used by the U.S. space program. These LLCC are used to reduce the risk that an ascending launch vehicle will trigger a lightning strike that could cause the loss of the mission or vehicle. The results suggest that even with fields of tens of kV/m inside electrically active convective clouds, the fields external to these clouds decay to less than 3 kV/m within fifteen kilometers of cloud edge. Fields exceeding 3 kV/m were not found external to anvil and debris clouds.

Merceret, Francis J.

Observed Enhancement of Reflectivity and Electric Field in Long-Lived Florida Anvils

A study of two long-lived Florida anvils showed that reflectivity >20 dBZ increased in area, thickness and sometimes magnitude at mid-level well downstream of the convective cores. In these same regions electric fields maintained strengths >10 kV m1 for many tens of minutes and became quite uniform over tens of kilometers. Millimetric aggregates persisted at 9 to 10 km for extended times and distances. Aggregation of ice particles enhanced by strong electric fields might have contributed to reflectivity growth in the early anvil, but is unlikely to explain observations further out in the anvil. The enhanced reflectivity and existence of small, medium and large ice particles far out into the anvil suggest that an updraft was acting, perhaps in weak convective cells formed by instability generated from the evaporation and melting of falling ice particles. We conclude that charge separation must have occurred in these anvils, perhaps at the melting level but also at higher altitudes, in order to maintain fields >10 kV m 1 at 9 to 10 km for extended periods of time over large distances. We speculate that charge separation occurred as a result of ice-ice particle collisions (without supercooled water being present) via either a non-inductive or perhaps even an inductive mechanism, given the observed broad ice particle spectra, the strong pre-existing electric fields and the many tens of minutes available for particle interactions. The observations, particularly in the early anvil, show that the charge structure in these anvils was quite complex.

Dye, James E.

Final Report on the Airborne Field Mill Project (ABFM) 2000-2001 Field Campaign

The Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) research program conducted under the direction of the John F. Kennedy Space Center during 2000 and 2001 is described. The purpose, methodology and initial results from the program are presented. Extensive appendices detailing the instrumentation used to collect the data are provided.

Dye, James E.

Observations and Parameterizations of Particle Size Distributions in Deep Tropical Cirrus and Stratiform Precipitation Clouds: Results from In-Situ Observations in TRMM Field Campaigns

In this study, we report on the evolution of particle size distributions (PSDs) and habits as measured during slow, Lagrangian-type spiral descents through deep subtropical and tropical cloud layers in Florida, Brazil, and Kwajalein, Marshall Islands, most of which were precipitating. The objective of the flight patterns was to learn more about how the PSDs evolved in the vertical and to obtain information of the vertical structure of microphysical properties. New instrumentation yielding better information on the concentrations of particles in the size (D) range between 0.2 and 2 cm, as well as improved particle imagery, produced more comprehensive observations for tropical stratiform precipitation regions and anvils than have been available previously. Collocated radar observations provided additional information on the vertical structure of the cloud layers sampled. Most of the spirals began at cloud top, with temperatures (T) as low as -50 C, and ended at cloud base or below the melting layer (ML). The PSDs broadened from cloud top towards cloud base, with the largest particles increasing in size from several millimeters at cloud top to one centimeter or larger towards cloud base. Some continued growth was noted in the upper part of the ML. Concentrations of particles less than 1 mm in size decreased with decreasing height. The result was a consistent change in the PSDs in the vertical. Similarly, systematic changes in the size dependence of the particle cross-sectional area was noted with decreasing height. Aggregation-as ascertained from both the changes in the PSDs and evolution of particle habits as observed in high detail with the cloud particle imager (CPI) probe-was responsible for these trends. The PSDs were generally well-represented by gamma distributions of the form N = N0 gamma D microns e- lambda gamma D that were fitted to the PSDs over 1-km horizontal intervals throughout the spirals. The intercept (N0 gamma), slope (lambda gamma), and dispersion (microns) values were derived for each PSD. Exponential curves (N = N0e- lambdaD; micron = 0) were also fitted to the distributions. The lambda gamma values for given spirals varied systematically with temperature as did the values of lambda (exponential), and the data generally conformed to values found in previous studies involving exponential fits to size distributions in mid-latitude frontal and cirrus layers. Considerable variability often noted in the PSD properties during the loops of individual spirals was manifested primarily in large changes in N0 gamma and N0, but micron, lambda gamma and lambda remained fairly stable. Temperature is not found to be the sole factor controlling lambda gamma or lambda but is a primary one. Direct relationships were found between lambda gamma and N0 gamma or lambda gamma and micron for the gamma distributions and lambda and N0 for the exponential. The latter relationship was not found as distinctly in earlier studies; observed PSDs in this study had better fidelity with less scatter. The micron values changed monotonically with T over the range of temperatures and were directly related to N0 gamma or lambda gamma, thereby reducing the number of variables in the PSD functional equation to two. In the upper part of the ML, N0 and lambda continued to decrease, and in the lower part these values began to increase as the largest particles melted. We developed general expressions relating various bulk microphysical, radar, and radiative transfer-related variables to N0 gamma and lambda gamma, useful for both tropical and mid-latitude clouds. These relationships facilitate the specification of a number of bulk properties in cloud and climate models. The results presented in this paper apply best to temperatures between 0 and -40 C, for which the measured radar reflectivities fall in the range of 0 to 25 dBZe.

Heymsfield, Andrew J.

Relationships between optical extinction, backscatter and aerosol surface and volume in the stratosphere following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo

The eruption of the Mt. Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines in June 1991 has resulted in increases in the surface and mass concentrations of aerosol particles in the lower stratosphere. Airborne measurements made at midlatitudes between 15 and 21 km from August 1991 to March 1992 show that, prior to December 1991, the Pinatubo aerosol cloud varied widely in microphysical properties such as size distribution, number, surface and volume concentrations and was also spatially variable. Aerosol surface area concentration was found to be highly correlated to extinction at visible and near-infrared wavelenghts throughout the measurement period. Similarly, backscatter at common lidar wavelengths was a good predictor of aerosol volume concentrations. These results support the use of satellite extinction measurements to estimate aerosol volume or mass if temporal changes in the relationships between the variables are considered.

Brock, Charles A.

Relationships between Optical Extinction, Backscatter and Aerosol Surface and Volume in the Stratosphere following the Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo

The eruption of the Mt. Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines in June 1991 has resulted in increases in the surface and mass concentrations of aerosol particles in the lower stratosphere. Airborne measurements made at midlatitudes between 15 and 21 km from August 1991 to March 1992 show that, prior to December 1991, the Pinatubo aerosol cloud varied widely in microphysical properties such as size distribution, number, surface and volume concentrations and was also spatially variable. Aerosol surface area concentration was found to be highly correlated to extinction at visible and near-infrared wavelengths throughout the measurement period. Similarly, backscatter at common lidar wavelengths was a good predictor of aerosol volume concentrations. These results support the use of satellite extinction measurements to estimate aerosol surface and of lidar measurements to estimate aerosol volume or mass if temporal changes in the relationships between the variables are considered.

Brock, Charles A.

Particle size distributions in Arctic polar stratospheric clouds, growth and freezing of sulfuric acid droplets, and implications for cloud formation

The paper uses particle size and volume measurements obtained with the forward scattering spectrometer probe model 300 during January and February 1989 in the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment to investigate processes important in the formation and growth of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles. It is suggested on the basis of comparisons of the observations with expected sulfuric acid droplet deliquescence that in the Arctic a major fraction of the sulfuric acid droplets remain liquid until temperatures at least as low as 193 K. It is proposed that homogeneous freezing of the sulfuric acid droplets might occur near 190 K and might play a role in the formation of PSCs.

Dye, James E.

Calibration of the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe used on the ER-2 during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment

The Particle Measuring Systems (PMS) Forwared Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP-100) which was flown on the ER-2 during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment for the measurement of particles in polar stratospheric clouds has been evaluated and calibrated. The sample volume of the probe per 10-s sampling period increases from 257 cu cm for 1-micron particles to 412 for 15-micron particles, but there is substantial uncertainty in this value. Limitations in the measurements from this instrument and possible corrections are discussed. The uncertainty in the total particle mass measured by the probe may be as large as + or - 100 percent. Recommendations are given for the processing of data from the FSSP used in this project.

Baumgardner, Darrel