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Dietrich, William F.

Publications and source records attributed to Dietrich, William F..

Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions

In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.

Atwell, William

Source Regions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and Variability in Heavy-Ion Elemental Composition in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are those in which ions are accelerated to their observed energies by interactions with a shock driven by a fast coronal mass-ejection (CME). Previous studies have shown that much of the observed event-to-event variability can be understood in terms of shock speed and evolution in the shock-normal angle. But an equally important factor, particularly for the elemental composition, is the origin of the suprathermal seed particles upon which the shock acts. To tackle this issue, we (1) use observed solar-wind speed, magnetograms, and the PFSS model to map the Sun-L1 interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) line back to its source region on the Sun at the time of the SEP observations; and (2) then look for correlation between SEP composition (as measured by Wind and ACE at approx. 2-30 MeV/nucleon) and characteristics of the identified IMF-source regions. The study is based on 24 SEP events, identified as a statistically-significant increase in approx. 20 MeV protons and occurring in 1998 and 2003-2006, when the rate of newly-emergent solar magnetic flux and CMEs was lower than in solar-maximum years and the field-line tracing is therefore more likely to be successful. We find that the gradual SEP Fe/O is correlated with the field strength at the IMF-source, with the largest enhancements occurring when the footpoint field is strong, due to the nearby presence of an active region. In these cases, other elemental ratios show a strong charge-to-mass (q/M) ordering, at least on average, similar to that found in impulsive events. These results lead us to suggest that magnetic reconnection in footpoint regions near active regions bias the heavy-ion composition of suprathermal seed ions by processes qualitatively similar to those that produce larger heavy-ion enhancements in impulsive SEP events. To address potential technical concerns about our analysis, we also discuss efforts to exclude impulsive SEP events from our event sample.

magnetic field

Periods of High Intensity Solar Proton Flux

Analysis is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Xapsos, Michael A.

Modeling Mission-Specific Worst-Case Solar Energetic Particle Environments

To plan and design safe and reliable space missions, it is necessary to take into account the effects of the space radiation environment. The environment during large solar energetic particle events poses the greatest challenge to missions. As a starting point for planning and design, a reference environment must be specified representing the most challenging environment to be encountered during the mission at some confidence level. The engineering challenge is then to find plans and mission design solutions that insure safe and reliable operations in this reference environment. This paper describes progress toward developing a model that provides such reference space radiation environments at user-specified confidence levels.

Adam, James H., Jr.

Probabilistic Solar Energetic Particle Models

To plan and design safe and reliable space missions, it is necessary to take into account the effects of the space radiation environment. This is done by setting the goal of achieving safety and reliability with some desired level of confidence. To achieve this goal, a worst-case space radiation environment at the required confidence level must be obtained. Planning and designing then proceeds, taking into account the effects of this worst-case environment. The result will be a mission that is reliable against the effects of the space radiation environment at the desired confidence level. In this paper we will describe progress toward developing a model that provides worst-case space radiation environments at user-specified confidence levels. We will present a model for worst-case event-integrated solar proton environments that provide the worst-case differential proton spectrum. This model is based on data from IMP-8 and GOES spacecraft that provide a data base extending from 1974 to the present. We will discuss extending this work to create worst-case models for peak flux and mission-integrated fluence for protons. We will also describe plans for similar models for helium and heavier ions.

Adams, James H., Jr.

Time Exceedances for High Intensity Solar Proton Fluxes

A model is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Xapsos, Michael A.

Radiation Dose Assessments of Solar Particle Events with Spectral Representation at High Energies for the Improvement of Radiation Protection

For radiation dose assessments of major solar particle events (SPEs), spectral functional forms of SPEs have been made by fitting available satellite measurements up to approx.100 MeV. However, very high-energy protons (above ~500 MeV) have been observed with neutron monitors (NMs) in ground level enhancements (GLEs), which generally present the most severe radiation hazards to astronauts. Due to technical difficulties in converting NM data into absolutely normalized fluence measurements, those functional forms were made with little or no use of NM data. A new analysis of NM data has found that a double power law in rigidity (the so-called Band function) generally provides a satisfactory representation of the combined satellite and NM data from approx.10 MeV to approx.10 GeV in major SPEs (Tylka & Dietrich 2009). We use the Band function fits to re-assess human exposures from large SPEs. Using different spectral representations of large SPEs, variations of exposure levels were compared. The results can be applied to the development of approaches of improved radiation protection for astronauts, as well as the optimization of mission planning and shielding for future space missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee

SEP Time-to-Maximum (TTM) Studies and the Ionic Charge States of Solar Heavy Ions

1. We published a report on the TTM method and presented the results at the 28 International Cosmic Ray Conference. Included in this paper were our results on the energy-dependent charge state of Fe in the 200 1 April 15 ground- level event, the largest of Cycle 23. We showed that our results agreed well with direct measurements from SAMPEX in this event. We also presented results for the 2001 April 14 event, one of the largest impulsive events of Cycle 23. 2. We extracted TTM values for protons and ions of various energies in approx. 50 SEP events in Cycle 23, using time profiles measured by ACE, Wind, GOES, IMPS, SOHO, and SAMPEX. This event sample included many large gradual events, as well as several impulsive events. The TTM analyses typically yielded approx. 300 datapoints per event. 3. We used these data to make preliminary event classifications according to: (a) shapes of the rigidity and/or speed dependence of TTMs in each event; (b) behavior of proton TTMs compared to that of heavier ions; and (c) the behavior of Fe TTMs compared to that of lighter Z greater than I ions. 4. We cross-checked proton fluence and TTM values from 8 instruments on 6 satellites, so as to understand the origin of systematic instrument-to-instrument discrepancies. By also comparing the observed proton spectra, it was possible to extract correction factors to the nominal proton energy bins that removed or greatly reduced the instrument-to-instrument spread among proton TTMs. 5. We began comparisons of proton and He-4 TTM values in some particularly well measured, large SEP events measured by IMP8 in Cycles 21 and 22 when the instruments onboard were functioning better. It is hoped that these data will provide a better understanding of event-to-event variation in the functional dependence of TTMs on velocity and rigidity.

Tylka, Allan J.