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Derleth, Jason

Publications and source records attributed to Derleth, Jason.

Strategic Risk Assessment

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Derleth, Jason

Technology Assessment in Support of the Presidential Vision for Space Exploration

This paper discusses the process and results of technology assessment in support of the United States Vision for Space Exploration of the Moon, Mars and Beyond. The paper begins by reviewing the Presidential Vision: a major endeavor in building systems of systems. It discusses why we wish to return to the Moon, and the exploration architecture for getting there safely, sustaining a presence, and safely returning. Next, a methodology for optimal technology investment is proposed with discussion of inputs including a capability hierarchy, mission importance weightings, available resource profiles as a function of time, likelihoods of development success, and an objective function. A temporal optimization formulation is offered, and the investment recommendations presented along with sensitivity analyses. Key questions addressed are sensitivity of budget allocations to cost uncertainties, reduction in available budget levels, and shifting funding within constraints imposed by mission timeline.

technology

START Analysis for ESAS Capability Needs Prioritization

START is a tool to optimize research and development primarily for NASA missions. It was developed within the Strategic Systems Technology Program Office, a division of the Office of the Chief Technologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. START is capable of quantifying and comparing the risks, costs, and potential returns of technologies that are candidates for funding. START can be enormously helpful both in selecting technologies for development -- within the constraints of budget, schedule, and other resources -- and in monitoring their progress. START's methods are applicable to everything from individual tasks to multiple projects comprising entire programs of investigation. They can address virtually any technology assessment and capability prioritization issue. In this report, START is used to analyze the capability needs using data from NASA's Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS).

optimization