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Denning, Richard S.

Publications and source records attributed to Denning, Richard S..

Molten Salt Reactor Fundamental Safety Function PIRT

The phenomenon identification and ranking table (PIRT) process was employed to evaluate the current capability to assess the ability of liquid-salt–fueled molten salt reactors to achieve their fundamental safety functions (FSFs). The PIRT process provides a structured mechanism to elicit and document expert opinions on the most important phenomena and the corresponding level of knowledge with regard to achieving the FSFs. The PIRT panel included reactor developers, accident progression evaluation tool developers, US Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratory technical staff, university researchers, and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff. The information-gathering process concentrated on phenomena related to accidents in which the fuel salt—including any in the cover gas—has been released from the first barrier layer. This information-gathering process included identifying all potential accidents that could result in the release of a substantial amount of radionuclides that could breach or bypass the first barrier. The PIRT did not identify any previously unrecognized systemic vulnerabilities. However, the elicitation process identified several areas with low levels of knowledge and significant potential impact on accident progression. These areas either require additional research to improve the state of knowledge or additional design conservatism to accommodate the remaining unknowns.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A New Layer to the PRA: Operational Performance Risk Assessment

A supervisory control system (SCS) concept developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory provides automated risk-informed decision-making capabilities with the ultimate goal of significantly boosting plant availability while reducing dependency on human resources for multi-module advanced reactors. The decision-making process integrates online-monitoring systems, and the associated diagnostic and prognostics tools to continuously take into account the component health in an integrated probabilistic/deterministic meta model to capture the system behavior during a select set of postulated anticipated operational occurrence scenarios. The operational performance risk assessment (OPRA) approach is introduced to support SCS decisions probabilistically to minimize/prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. OPRA identifies and ranks the success paths, combination of the non-safety systems and components, with the real-time failure data using event tree/fault tree method. OPRA does not interfere with the safety systems and adds a buffer zone to the existing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) domain by minimizing the possible transients. In this work, failure scenarios of feedwater and turbine control valves are analyzed for ALMR PRISM (Power Reactor Innovative Small Module) design at full power. As an alternative to the default shutdown option, five and seven success paths (full and reduced power operation) are defined respectively within the OPRA framework.

Guler Yigitoglu, Askin↗

Operational Performance Risk Assessment in Support of A Supervisory Control System

Supervisory control system (SCS) is developed for multi-unit advanced small modular reactors to minimize human interventions in both normal and abnormal operations. In SCS, control action decisions made based on probabilistic risk assessment approach via Event Trees/Fault Trees. Although traditional PRA tools are implemented, their scope is extended to normal operations and application is reversed; success of non-safety related system instead failure of safety systems this extended PRA approach called as operational performance risk assessment (OPRA). OPRA helps to identify success paths, combination of control actions for transients and to quantify these success paths to provide possible actions without activating plant protection system. In this paper, a case study of the OPRA in supervisory control system is demonstrated within the context of the ALMR PRISM design, specifically power conversion system. The scenario investigated involved a condition that the feed water control valve is observed to be drifting to the closed position. Alternative plant configurations were identified via OPRA that would allow the plant to continue to operate at full or reduced power. Dynamic analyses were performed with a thermal-hydraulic model of the ALMR PRISM system using Modelica to evaluate remained safety margins. Successful recovery paths for the selected scenario are identified and quantified via SCS.

Denning, Richard S.↗

Supervisory Control System for Multi-Modular Advanced Reactors

The proposed supervisory control system (SCS) may provide considerable benefits to advanced small modular reactors, including reduced plant staffing, optimized maintenance activities, greater plant availability, and higher operating efficiency. The SCS makes risk-informed decisions based on (1) a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and (2) a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety system—one measure of SCS success. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the SCS is based on the control actions associated with an advanced liquid-metal reactor (ALMR) Power Reactor, Innovative, Small Module (PRISM). Within the SCS, the probabilistic assessment provides a ranking of viable control actions; however, certain instructions generated by the probabilistic model only include an abstract notion of action without specifications. For instance, one instruction may be to reduce power without specifying how much reduction is needed. The prognostic/diagnostic models incorporate the health of components into the decision-making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the SCS transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The performance-based system models assess and rank each of the probabilistically identified control actions by taking into account the physical behavior (current and projected) of the system. The performance-based decision making module receives inputs from the probabilistic decision-making module and the ERM module to generate a single solution. Interfaces to these modules are defined later in the section. A utility theory algorithm factors into the decision making by estimating the distance from and approach to a trip setpoint for each control option. If the magnitude of a negative utility value increases rapidly as the system approaches the trip setpoint, that option is not likely to be the preferred option. This can lead to a re-ranking of the control options. The SCS then transmits a control signal(s) to a component or system and informs the operator of actions taken based on the action chosen. The SCS successfully coupled probabilistic and performance-based system models to arrive at optimal control decisions based on the actual status of the plant and components. The automatic, autonomous, and real-time performance requirements for a control system were met by the SCS. The value of coupling probabilistic and performance-based system models was demonstrated by the re-ranking of control options based on the use of a utility algorithm. The use of ERM monitors provides added value to the SCS as demonstrated by the re-ranking of control options based on a components degraded state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Regulatory Technology Development Plan - Sodium Fast Reactor: Mechanistic Source Term – Trial Calculation

The potential release of radioactive material during a plant incident, referred to as the source term, is a vital design metric and will be a major focus of advanced reactor licensing. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has stated an expectation for advanced reactor vendors to present a mechanistic assessment of the potential source term in their license applications. The mechanistic source term presents an opportunity for vendors to realistically assess the radiological consequences of an incident, and may allow reduced emergency planning zones and smaller plant sites. However, the development of a mechanistic source term for advanced reactors is not without challenges, as there are often numerous phenomena impacting the transportation and retention of radionuclides. This project sought to evaluate U.S. capabilities regarding the mechanistic assessment of radionuclide release from core damage incidents at metal fueled, pool-type sodium fast reactors (SFRs). The purpose of the analysis was to identify, and prioritize, any gaps regarding computational tools or data necessary for the modeling of radionuclide transport and retention phenomena. To accomplish this task, a parallel-path analysis approach was utilized. One path, led by Argonne and Sandia National Laboratories, sought to perform a mechanistic source term assessment using available codes, data, and models, with the goal to identify gaps in the current knowledge base. The second path, performed by an independent contractor, performed sensitivity analyses to determine the importance of particular radionuclides and transport phenomena in regards to offsite consequences. The results of the two pathways were combined to prioritize gaps in current capabilities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses various sensor data (e.g., reactor outlet temperature, steam generator drum level) and calculates its position within the challenge state, its trajectory, and its margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. The metrics that are evaluated are based on reactor trip set points. The integration of the deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermalhydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies, and developing a user interface to mimic display panels at a modern nuclear power plant.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗