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Deceglie, Michael

Publications and source records attributed to Deceglie, Michael.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Automatic Loss Factor Modeling and Attribution on Unlabeled PV Energy Data

We present a novel approach for modeling the loss factors of photovoltaic power generation systems (PV systems). This method is a white-box machine learning model built on convex optimization that is fast, interpretable, and auditable. It takes as an input the measured daily energy produced by the system, over a multi-year period, and returns a multiplicative decomposition model of the daily energy signal and full attribution of the total energy loss to each feature. The methods section of this paper has two major components: (1) the description of the signal decomposition (SD) model, expressed in the SD framework, and (2) the attribution of total energy losses via Shapley values. We validate the method on synthetic and open-source data sets and compare to similar methods from the literature.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing Our Understanding of System Availability through the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative

The PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative partners with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series data of PV production data and publishes aggregated anonymized results of system performance metrics. With an extensive dataset drawn from over 2,200 PV systems across the United States, comprising 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels, this initiative aims to ensure that systemic risks in the US PV fleet are detected. The current work explores system availability, revealing a pronounced dependence on time, especially within the initial 6 months of system performance. Following this start-up period, the average system availability stabilizes. Statistical analyses illustrate a median (P5O) monthly availability of 0.991 and a dependence on system size with a negative trend in availability with increasing system size. This finding indicates that larger systems experience lower availability compared to their smaller counterparts.

inverter availability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV System Availability from Commercial and Utility-Scale Systems [Slides]

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data, and publish aggregated, anonymized results. An assessment of system availability is conducted on 1128 systems which passed our data quality checks, and include cumulative energy meter data. Overall inverter availability is low in the first 6 months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. System-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99, and a lower P90 value of 0.95. A dependence on system size is also identified, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Potential causes of this effect are under investigation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

AI and ML Applications for PV Reliability and System Performance

This poster discusses AI and ML topics in PV reliability and system performance. In particular, automated metadata extraction and QA for fielded solar installations is covered for the PV Fleets Project. Additionally, statistical learning topics for the PVInsight Project are addressed, as well as development of the PV Validation Hub.

algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2023

PVade (PV Aerodynamic Design Engineering) [SWR-23-49]

PV Aerodynamic Design Engineering (PVade) is an open-source fluid-structure interaction (FSI) solver which can accurately simulate wind loads and aerodynamic stability in solar-tracking PV arrays. PVade’s pressure profiles and inertial load time series can be used as inputs into mechanical module models to study degradation mechanisms including cracking of cells, weathering of cracked cells, and glass breakage. This software enables PV plant owners to predict optimal high-wind stow strategies under a variety of weather and site conditions.

Young, Ethan↗
DOE OSTI2023

De-Risking Large-Scale PV Systems Through Data Analytics

Large-scale photovoltaic system performance analysis is being conducted within the US Department of Energy's-sponsored PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative. This collaboration with commercial PV system owners collects and evaluates PV field performance data, and provides reports on aggregated results. Drawing on over 2200 sites across the US and over 24,000 separate PV inverters we have collected in excess of 8.3 gigawatts (GW) of performance data, representing 6-7% of the entire US installed PV capacity. A mixture of utility-scale and large commercial systems are represented, averaging 4.1 megawatts (MW) in size and 5 years in age. Initial results show average system degradation rates at -0.75% / year, which is slightly higher than historically reported module-level values of -0.5%/year. We also found that the availability of systems averaged 97.7%, which is lower than the typical 99% uptime assumed by many project economic forecasts. Given these results, we compared monthly performance with expected production values, based on satellite weather data and a simple PVWatts performance model. We found that systems were performing within 10% of monthly expectation over 90% of the time, with a fleet average vs expected monthly value of 0.994. We also evaluated the impact of extreme weather events on system performance, and found a range of short-term and longer-term performance effects ranging from grid outage, system downtime, module damage and accelerated long-term degradation rate.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generating Synthetic Time Series Photovoltaic Data with Real-World Physical Challenges and Noise for Use in Algorithm Test and Validation

The PV Fleet Data Initiative and other projects seek the develop algorithms for automated analysis of PV time series data for extraction of statistical information and other parameters of the data such as degradation rates, soiling loss information, tracker performance, clipping or curtailment, system availability and other valuable information. While there is a vast body of PV data available for application of said extraction algorithms it is difficult to validate these algorithms because the true parameters to be extracted are not known. There has been a wide use of synthetic data in the literature for algorithm validation but this synthetic data is typically very bounded by the problem or topic at hand. The PV Fleet Data Initiative project has demonstrated that real time series PV data almost always includes a host of data quality and physical problems that, in reality, any automated PV abstraction algorithm must handle appropriately. For this reason, this work describes the development of a complex synthetic PV times series data set that includes data quality and physical problems that have been experienced in real world PV data. The various quality and physical problems are documented in the synthetic data so that users can test the validity of various PV extraction algorithms as well as develop new algorithms to solve problems this data set can support.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PV Validation Hub

The Validation Hub will be a clearinghouse for the transfer of novel algorithms and software from the PV research community to industry. Potential algorithms tested in the Hub could include the estimation of various PV loss factors and the detection of various operational issues. The primary function of the Hub will be for developers to submit executable code which will run on hosted data sets. Developers will receive private reports on the accuracy and performance (e.g., run-time) of the submitted algorithms, and public high level summaries will be hosted. These summaries will indicate the organization who submitted the algorithm (e.g., links to GitHub pages, documentation websites, etc.), high-level accuracy metrics, and standardized performance metrics. These results will be stored in a publicly available database, accessible through the Hub, with the ability for users to sort and filter the results. In short, the Hub will be presented to public users as a collection of interactive leaderboards, organized around specific analysis tasks pertinent to the PV data science community. These tasks include things such as the estimation of various PV loss factors and the detection of various operational issues. We will present progress on the development of this hub, including preliminary results of comparative validation of PV data science algorithms and progress towards building the platform itself.

algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pollen and Bio-Soiling in the Southeast U.S.

Typical PV soiling models presume that soiling follows a sawtooth pattern: linear soiling during dry periods followed by abrupt recovery or cleaning during rainfall events. Due to frequency of rainfall in the in the eastern U.S. sawtooth soiling models report near zero soiling losses in this region. Alternatively, through work with system owner/operators per NREL's PVfleet project it has become clear that there are systems in the Southeast that have soiled as high as 10% which are not recovering with regular rainfall. The current hypothesis is that sticky soiling due to pollen or other biological sources is persistent to rainfall removal. Field data and the latest progress towards de-risking bio-soiling will be presented.

photovoltaic↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automatic Crack Segmentation and Feature Extraction in Electroluminescence Images of Solar Modules

The effect of cracks in solar cells on the long-term degradation of photovoltaic (PV) modules remains to be determined. To investigate this effect in future studies, it is necessary to quantitatively describe the crack features (e.g., length) and correlate them with module power loss. Electroluminescence (EL) imaging is a common technique for identifying cracks. However, it is currently challenging and time-consuming to identify cracks in a large number of EL images and quantify complex crack features by human inspection. This article introduces a fast semantic segmentation method (~0.18 s/cell) to automatically segment cracks from EL images and algorithms to extract crack features. Here we fine-tuned a UNet neural network model using pretrained VGG16 as the encoder and obtained an average F1 score of 0.875 and an intersection over union score of 0.782 on the testing set. With cracks and busbars segmented, we developed algorithms for extracting crack features, including the crack-isolated area, the brightness inside the isolated area, and the crack length. We also developed an automatic preprocessing tool for cropping individual cell images from EL images of PV modules (~0.72 s/module). Our codes are published as open-source an software, and our annotated dataset composed of various types of cells is published as a benchmark for crack segmentation in EL images.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

WhatsCracking [SWR-23-03]

WhatsCracking can accurately predict cell fracture in crystalline silicon PV modules. The probability of PV module cell fracture is determined by a complicated interrelationship of module architecture, materials, and loading. WhatsCracking is a Finite Element Method tool which enables users to assess how module design impacts the propensity for cell fracture.

Deceglie, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2022

Laboratory and Field Characterization of the Electrical Response of Modules Containing Configurable Current Cells (C3) Under Non-Optimal Conditions Such as Shading (Final Report)

This work is to be conducted in support of the American Made Challenges Solar Prize. The intent is to connect competitor teams with national laboratories that can help accelerate the development of innovative solutions and products. Teams who have won the Set! and Go! Contests are eligible to utilize vouchers at national laboratories to advance their ideas. Laboratory and field characterization of the electrical response of modules containing Configurable Current Cells (C3) under non-optimal conditions such as shading.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

iv_parems [SWR-22-79]

iv_parems follows the ASTM E1036 standard to extract parameters (open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current, maximum power point) from photovoltaic current-voltage characteristics.

Deceglie, Michael↗