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Davis, Warren

Publications and source records attributed to Davis, Warren.

Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning

Focal area(s): To improve predictions of sea ice in E3SM we propose to develop a hierarchy of data-driven models using observational and simulation data to investigate the most important Earth system drivers of sea ice variability and loss, develop surrogates that build on the reduced parameter space of important drivers, and, where appropriate, couple machine learning models with standard PDE models to capture important physical behavior at different scales. This work falls under Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Intervention Assessment and Attribution

Focal Area(s): To ensure the US is positioned to scientifically attribute noncooperative climate interventions, we propose developing a foundational analytical framework for increased confidence in the assessment and attribution of observed changes in the climate. This framework will enable probabilistic attribution of prospective climate interventions. The target is to glean insight from complex Earth system data (Focal Area 3) by using AI to develop a prediction system comprised of a hierarchy of models (Focal Area 2).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal Modeling Method Improvements for SAGE III on ISS

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload, which consists of multiple subsystems, has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Many innovative analysis methods have been used in developing this model; these will be described in the paper. This paper builds on a paper presented at TFAWS 2013, which described some of the initial developments of efficient methods for SAGE III. The current paper describes additional improvements that have been made since that time. To expedite the correlation of the model to thermal vacuum (TVAC) testing, the chambers and GSE for both TVAC chambers at Langley used to test the payload were incorporated within the thermal model. This allowed the runs of TVAC predictions and correlations to be run within the flight model, thus eliminating the need for separate models for TVAC. In one TVAC test, radiant lamps were used which necessitated shooting rays from the lamps, and running in both solar and IR wavebands. A new Dragon model was incorporated which entailed a change in orientation; that change was made using an assembly, so that any potential additional new Dragon orbits could be added in the future without modification of the model. The Earth orbit parameters such as albedo and Earth infrared flux were incorporated as time-varying values that change over the course of the orbit; despite being required in one of the ISS documents, this had not been done before by any previous payload. All parameters such as initial temperature, heater voltage, and location of the payload are defined based on the case definition. For one component, testing was performed in both air and vacuum; incorporating the air convection in a submodel that was only built for the in-air cases allowed correlation of all testing to be done in a single model. These modeling improvements and more will be described and illustrated in the paper.

Liles, Kaitlin↗

SAGE III on ISS Lessons Learned on Thermal Interface Design

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument - the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring vertical distribution of aerosols, ozone, and other trace gases in the Earth's stratosphere and troposphere - is currently scheduled for delivery to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle in 2016. The Instrument Adapter Module (IAM), one of many SAGE III subsystems, continuously dissipates a considerable amount of thermal energy during mission operations. Although a portion of this energy is transferred via its large radiator surface area, the majority must be conductively transferred to the ExPRESS Payload Adapter (ExPA) to satisfy thermal mitigation requirements. The baseline IAM-ExPA mechanical interface did not afford the thermal conductance necessary to prevent the IAM from overheating in hot on-orbit cases, and high interfacial conductance was difficult to achieve given the large span between mechanical fasteners, less than stringent flatness specifications, and material usage constraints due to strict contamination requirements. This paper will examine the evolution of the IAM-ExPA thermal interface over the course of three design iterations and will include discussion on design challenges, material selection, testing successes and failures, and lessons learned.

Davis, Warren↗

PADME (Phobos And Deimos and Mars Environment): A Proposed NASA Discovery Mission to Investigate the Two Moons of Mars

After 40 years of solar system exploration by spacecraft, the origin of Mars's satellites, remains vexingly unknown. There are three prevailing hypotheses concerning their origin: H1: They are captured small bodies from the outer main belt or beyond; H2: They are reaccreted Mars impact ejecta; H3: They are remnants of Mars' formation. There are many variants of these hypotheses, but as stated, these three capture the key ideas and constraints on their nature. So far, data and modeling have not allowed any one of these hypotheses to be verified or excluded. Each one of these hypotheses has important implications for the evolution of the solar system, the formation and evolution of planets and satellites, and the delivery of water and organics to Early Mars and Early Earth. Determining the origin of Phobos and Deimos is identified by the NASA and the NRC Decadal Survey as the most important science goal at these bodies.

Lee, Pascal↗

Development and Implementation of Efficiency-Improving Analysis Methods for the SAGE III on ISS Thermal Model Originating

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle in 2015. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Several novel methods have been implemented to facilitate efficient payload-level thermal analysis, including the use of a design of experiments (DOE) methodology to determine the worst-case orbits for SAGE III while on ISS, use of TD assemblies to move payloads from the Dragon trunk to the Enhanced Operational Transfer Platform (EOTP) to its final home on the Expedite the Processing of Experiments to Space Station (ExPRESS) Logistics Carrier (ELC)-4, incorporation of older models in varying unit sets, ability to change units easily (including hardcoded logic blocks), case-based logic to facilitate activating heaters and active elements for varying scenarios within a single model, incorporation of several coordinate frames to easily map to structural models with differing geometries and locations, and streamlined results processing using an Excel-based text file plotter developed in-house at LaRC. This document presents an overview of the SAGE III thermal model and describes the development and implementation of these efficiency-improving analysis methods.

Liles, Kaitlin↗