Using fmdtools Models as Low-fidelity Digital Twins for Operations Support and In-time Decision Making
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Lukman Irshad↗
Engineering topics
Daniel Hulse
Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Hulse.
Uncovering Hazards Using Multi-Objective Optimization to Explore the Faulty State-Space
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Resilience↗
On the Use of Resilience Models as Digital Twins for Operational Support and In time Decision Making
Human error is a major contributor to accidents and performance losses in complex engineered systems. If one examines these human error caused failures further, a specific cause, the lack of situation awareness, has dominated as a major cause of human errors that instigate latent or catastrophic failures in complex systems. Studies of aviation accidents involving major air carriers revealed that situation awareness was the root cause of around 90% of accidents involving pilot error. Another study explored offshore drilling accidents involving human error and found that 40% of accidents were directly attributed to the loss of situation awareness. Studies of human errors in other domains such as nuclear power, air traffic control, process industry, and advanced driving show that loss of SA was a root cause in a majority of the events. Situation awareness-related failures are not only common but also costly and fatal (e.g., Bhopal Gas Leak, Air France 447 Flight Crash). Thus, the concept of situation awareness has emerged as an important construct in human factors, resulting in numerous models and measurement methods to aid in promoting appropriate levels of situation awareness.
Lukman Irshad↗
Modeling Distributed Situation Awareness in Resilience-based Design of Complex Systems
Human operators play a major role in the resilience of complex systems–while human error is one of the biggest contributors to hazardous events, operators additionally play a critical role in mitigating hazardous events. A key factor underlying this operator resilience is situation awareness–the ability of operators to understand their environment and each other to achieve desired system functions. In contrast to situation awareness-related accident models in the literature, which are largely conceptual in nature, this work proposes the use of a dynamic simulation framework to concretely model both the effects of situation awareness-related human errors and situation awareness-related hazard-mitigating properties using the distributed situation awareness theory. This work then presents specialized model constructs to enable agents’ individual perceptions of the system state and transactions with other agents (and thus distributed situation awareness) to be represented in simulation. To demonstrate this framework, it is then adapted to an aircraft taxiway case study, where it is used to model aircraft conflicts due to lack of vision and poor communications from the air traffic controller. This demonstration shows the potential of using simulation models to rigorously understand situation awareness-related human errors and thus inform the design of resilience.
Resilience Modeling↗
fmdtools 2.0 Release Discussion
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resilience↗
Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design
Resilience is a topic of increasing interest–with ever-present calls from policymakers to increase the resilience of complex systems and infrastructure. However, resilience as a concept can be confusing, because of a lack of a common unified definition and frame of reference. Sometimes it can appear as if resilience analysis is merely duplicating other, more mature fields such as safety, reliability, or risk, while other times it seems as if resilience is providing an “alternative” view with limited rigor. To better understand the resilience concept (and its relation to the broader field of risk management), this paper will present the perspective of simulation-based resilience analysis and design, including some of the foundational precepts and resultant concepts defining the resilience concept. It will further present the motivation for using simulation to understand resilience and highlight some ongoing work and research challenges in this area. From this frame of reference, one can better understand the field of resilience, including how different aspects and definitions of resilience relate to each other, and how resilience relates to broader design considerations and practices.
resilience↗
Defining A Modelling Language to Support Functional Hazard Assessment
Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA) is a key early-stage engineering process that supports the incorporation of safety in design by identifying the high-level functional hazards the system may encounter. While many FHA-like methodologies have been proposed in the design engineering literature, many of these methodologies have had difficulty becoming accepted industry practice. Industry standards, on the other hand, either provide too little recommendation on how to represent the function of the system to perform FHA, or rely on existing design artefacts which insufficiently support the goals of the process. This paper presents some of the problems with current modeling languages (both proposed and used) for FHA which limit the scope, expressiveness, flexibility, and precision of the analysis. It then outlines desirable principles an FHA-supporting analysis language should embody, and introduces the Functional Reasoning Design Language (FRDL), a formal modeling language for describing the functional elements of a system and their interactions, which aims to satisfy these principles. To demonstrate the use of this language, the modeling and hazard analysis of a disaster response drone is presented. While this case study is limited in scope, it highlights how FRDL can represent system function while reducing the ambiguity present in typical FHA-supporting functional modeling languages
Hazard Assessment↗
Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design
Resilience is a topic of increasing interest–with ever-present calls from policymakers to increase the resilience of complex systems and infrastructure. However, resilience as a concept can be confusing, because of a lack of a common unified definition and frame of reference. Sometimes it can appear as if resilience analysis is merely duplicating other, more mature fields such as safety, reliability, or risk, while other times it seems as if resilience is providing an “alternative” view with limited rigor. To better understand the resilience concept (and its relation to the broader field of risk management), this paper will present the perspective of simulation-based resilience analysis and design, including some of the foundational precepts and resultant concepts defining the resilience concept. It will further present the motivation for using simulation to understand resilience and highlight some ongoing work and research challenges in this area. From this frame of reference, one can better understand the field of resilience, including how different aspects and definitions of resilience relate to each other, and how resilience relates to broader design considerations and practices.
resilience↗
Defining A Modelling Language to Support Functional Hazard Assessment
Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA) is a key early-stage engineering process that supports the incorporation of safety in design by identifying the high-level functional hazards the system may encounter. While many FHA-like methodologies have been proposed in the design engineering literature, many of these methodologies have had difficulty becoming accepted industry practice. Industry standards, on the other hand, either provide little recommendation on how to represent the function of the system to perform FHA, or rely on readily-available models with little justification in design theory. This paper presents some of the problems with current modelling languages used for FHA which limit the scope, expressiveness, flexibility, and precision of the analysis, as well as desirable principles an FHA-supporting analysis language should embody. It further introduces the Functional Reasoning Design Language (FRDL), a formal modelling language for describing the functional behaviors of a system and their interactions which satisfies these principles. To demonstrate the use of this language, the modelling and hazard analysis of a disaster response drone is presented.
safety analysis↗
Towards Computational Functional Hazard Assessment (CFHA): A Gap Analysis and Concept for Emerging Aviation Systems
Given the current evolution of the National Airspace and future trajectory towards novel and evolving operations with varying levels of autonomy, complexity, and acceptable risk, there is an opportunity to support safety assurance by extending existing methodologies, such as Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA). In response to challenges in performing FHA for novel aviation concepts, we propose a concept for Computational Functional Hazard Assessment (CFHA), which provides processes, methods, and tools for incorporating external data to facilitate further exploration of the hazard space iterativelty throughout the design process. The core components of CFHA involve knowledge capture from historical and operational data, functional architecture specification via a formal modeling language, and simulation for hazardous scenario analysis. Through this concept, we aim to adapt conventional safety assessment to address the increasingly complex hazard space generated from emerging operations.
Seydou Mbaye↗
Towards Functional Hazard Assessment (CFHA): A Gap Analysis and Concept for Emerging Aviation Systems
Given the current evolution of the National Airspace and future trajectory towards novel and evolving operations with varying levels of autonomy, complexity, and acceptable risk, there is an opportunity to support safety assurance by extending existing methodologies, such as Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA). In response to challenges in performing FHA for novel aviation concepts, we propose a concept for Computational Functional Hazard Assessment (CFHA), which provides processes, methods, and tools for incorporating external data to facilitate further exploration of the hazard space iterativelty throughout the design process. The core components of CFHA involve knowledge capture from historical and operational data, functional architecture specification via a formal modeling language, and simulation for hazardous scenario analysis. Through this concept, we aim to adapt conventional safety assessment to address the increasingly complex hazard space generated from emerging operations.
Seydou Mbaye↗
Determining Optimal Asset Location for Rapid and Efficient Wildfire Suppression: A Simulation-Based Approach
The impact of wildfire incidents has been growing in recent years, posing a serious threat to communities at the urban-wildland interface. To address this problem, there have been growing calls to use UAVs to increase the capacity of responsible agencies to quickly and effectively suppress fires and to reduce risks associated with firefighting. One of the opportunities associated with UAVs is the ability to rapidly and autonomously operate from limited-access air bases where fires are expected to burn. This study provides an approach to determine where these air bases should be placed in order to most rapidly extinguish fires, given provided fuel distributions. This approach uses an integrated simulation of fire propagation and UAV-based suppression actions to determine how much of a given environment was burned over a range of scenarios. It then uses an optimization method to explore the space and determine the location with the least burned area. Results show the approach to efficiently and effectively provide optimal bases for single-base placements over a range of scenarios, though future work is required to adequately calibrate the model and study how it can be used in multiple-base placement problems.
Daniel Hulse↗
Determining Optimal Asset Location for Rapid and Efficient Wildfire Suppression: A Simulation-Based Approach
The impact of wildfire incidents has been growing in recent years, posing a serious threat to communities at the urban-wildland interface. To address this problem, there have been growing calls to use UAVs to increase the capacity of responsible agencies to quickly and effectively suppress fires and to reduce risks associated with firefighting. One of the opportunities associated with UAVs is the ability to rapidly and autonomously operate from limited-access air bases where fires are expected to burn. This study provides an approach to determine where these air bases should be placed in order to most rapidly extinguish fires, given provided fuel distributions. This approach uses an integrated simulation of fire propagation and UAV-based suppression actions to determine how much of a given environment was burned over a range of scenarios. It then uses an optimization method to explore the space and determine the location with the least burned area. Results show the approach to efficiently and effectively provide optimal bases for single-base placements over a range of scenarios, though future work is required to adequately calibrate the model and study how it can be used in multiple-base placement problems.
Daniel Hulse↗