Engineering topics

Dalton, Angela C

Publications and source records attributed to Dalton, Angela C.

6 records

DOE OSTI2011

SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATE’S PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

This paper presents approach for assessing a State’s propensity for nuclear weapons proliferation using social modeling. We supported this modeling by first reviewing primarily literature by social scientists on factors related to the propensity of a State to proliferation and by leveraging existing relevant data compiled by social scientists. We performed a number of validation tests on our model including one that incorporates use of benchmark data defining the proliferation status of countries in the years between 1945 and 2000. We exercise the BN model against a number of country cases representing different perceived levels of proliferation risk. We also describe how the BN model could be further refined to be a proliferation assessment tool for decision making.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2011

Challenges in Implementing Methodologies for Nonproliferation Assessments

A handful of models for explaining and predicting States’ development of nuclear weapons programs have been proposed since the 1970s. Despite the array of techno-social variables and computational concepts employed in these models, no model has yet been established as an agreed-upon standard. Likewise, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—one of the main institutions evaluating social, political, and technological information for assessments of States’ current nuclear capabilities—uses only a qualitative framework by which to evaluate such information to assess the correctness and completeness of a State’s declaration. In this paper, analysts familiar with both the development of techno-social modelling and the IAEA’s implementation of a safeguards system that is information driven discuss the challenges faced in the development, implementation, and evaluation of models and methodologies for nonproliferation assessments, based on experiences at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the IAEA.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Technosocial Predictive Analytics for Illicit Nuclear Trafficking

Illicit nuclear trafficking networks are a national security threat. These networks can directly lead to nuclear proliferation, as state or non-state actors attempt to identify and acquire nuclear weapons-related expertise, technologies, components, and materials. The ability to characterize and anticipate the key nodes, transit routes, and exchange mechanisms associated with these networks is essential to influence, disrupt, interdict or destroy the function of the networks and their processes. The complexities inherent to the characterization and anticipation of illicit nuclear trafficking networks requires that a variety of modeling and knowledge technologies be jointly harnessed to construct an effective analytical and decision making workflow in which specific case studies can be built in reasonable time and with realistic effort. In this paper, we explore a solution to this challenge that integrates evidentiary and dynamic modeling with knowledge management and analytical gaming, and demonstrate its application to a geopolitical region at risk.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2011

Bayesian Networks for Social Modeling

This paper describes a body of work developed over the past five years. The work addresses the use of Bayesian network (BN) models for representing and predicting social/organizational behaviors. The topics covered include model construction, validation, and use. These topics show the bulk of the lifetime of such model, beginning with construction, moving to validation and other aspects of model ‘critiquing’, and finally demonstrating how the modeling approach might be used to inform policy analysis. To conclude, we discuss limitations of using BN for this activity and suggest remedies to address those limitations. The primary benefits of using a well-developed computational, mathematical, and statistical modeling structure, such as BN, are 1) there are significant computational, theoretical and capability bases on which to build 2) ability to empirically critique the model, and potentially evaluate competing models for a social/behavioral phenomena.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2010

Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison

Research on integrative modeling has gained considerable attention in recent years and expert opinion has been increasingly recognized as an important data source and modeling contributor. However, little research has systematically compared and evaluated expert elicitation methods in terms of their ability to link to computational models that capture human behavior and social phenomena. In this paper, we describe a decision-making process we used for evaluating and selecting a task specific elicitation method within the framework of integrative computational social-behavioral modeling. From the existing literature, we identified the characteristics of problems that each candidate method is well suited to address. A small-scale expert elicitation was also conducted to evaluate the comparative strength and weaknesses of the methods against a number of consensus-based decision criteria. By developing a set of explicit method evaluation criteria and a description characterizing decision problems for the candidate methods, we seek to gain a better understanding of the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of integrating elicitation methods with computational modeling techniques. This serves an important first step toward expanding our research effort and trajectory toward greater interdisciplinary modeling research of human behavior.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2010

Identifying at-risk employees: A behavioral model for predicting potential insider threats

A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. In many of these crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they could be assessed by a person experienced in psychosocial evaluations. We have developed a model using a Bayesian belief network with the help of human resources staff, experienced in evaluating behaviors in staff. We conducted an experiment to assess its agreement with human resources and management professionals, with positive results. If implemented in an operational setting, the model would be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment that can raise an alarm about employees who pose higher insider threat risks. In separate work, we combine this psychosocial model’s assessment with computer workstation behavior to raise the efficacy of recognizing an insider crime in the making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗