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D'Angelo, Gennaro

Publications and source records attributed to D'Angelo, Gennaro.

An evaluation of the E3SMv1 Arctic ocean and sea-ice regionally refined model

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a state-of-the-science Earth system model (ESM) with the ability to focus horizontal resolution of its multiple components in specific areas. Regionally refined global ESMs are motivated by the need to explicitly resolve, rather than parameterize, relevant physics within the regions of refined resolution, while offering significant computational cost savings relative to the respective cost of configurations with high-resolution (HR) everywhere on the globe. In this paper, we document results from the first Arctic regionally refined E3SM configuration for the ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-Arctic-OSI), while employing data-based atmosphere, land, and hydrology components. Our aim is an improved representation of the Arctic coupled ocean and sea-ice state, its variability and trends, and the exchanges of mass and property fluxes between the Arctic and the sub-Arctic. We find that E3SM-Arctic-OSI increases the realism of simulated Arctic ocean and sea-ice conditions compared to a similar low-resolution E3SM simulation without the Arctic regional refinement in ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-LR-OSI). In particular, exchanges through the main Arctic gateways are greatly improved with respect to E3SM-LR-OSI. Other aspects, such as the Arctic freshwater content variability and sea-ice trends, are also satisfactorily simulated. Yet, other features, such as the upper-ocean stratification and the sea-ice thickness distribution, need further improvements, involving either more advanced parameterizations, model tuning, or additional grid refinements. Overall, E3SM-Arctic-OSI offers an improved representation of the Arctic system relative to E3SM-LR-OSI, at a fraction (15 %) of the computational cost of comparable global high-resolution configurations, while permitting exchanges with the lower-latitude oceans that cannot be directly accounted for in Arctic regional models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea ice evolution along the Northern Sea Route and implications for trans-Arctic shipping from 2021 through 2060

Arctic surface temperatures warmed at twice the global average in the second half of the 20 th century due to Arctic amplification (AA), a phenomenon predominantly caused by regional polar changes, like the melting of perennial sea ice and reduced sea ice extent (leading to more solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean surface as opposed to being reflected back to space by the ice surface). AA is projected to reach a factor of three even if the climate is stabilized by the mid 21 st century by reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In all emissions scenarios, AA is projected to lead to temperature changes at least 2.4 times larger than global mean surface temperature changes occurring between 2070 and 2100. The ice-albedo feedback, which occurs when the polar-marine surface absorbs more radiation as highly reflective sea ice melts, is reversible such that the premise of a runaway process is no longer accepted as a realistic possibility. No matter what actions are taken to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere from now on, two different methods of predicting an ice-free Arctic suggest that perennial sea ice will mostly disappear in September by the year 2050. If there is no reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 and methane emissions, that scenario could occur sooner than 2030. Defining Arctic navigability as safe and economic passage of Polar Class 7 cargo ships without need of an escorting icebreaker, no single trans Arctic ship route will be navigable year-round in the first half of the 21 st century, including in the strong emission scenarios. However, seasonal trans-Arctic navigability will increase this century. An estimate on the number of days per year that the Northern See Route (NSR) will be navigable in the future is beyond the scope of this report. Along Northern Sea Routes 5 and 6, which run close to the Russian coast and Yamal LNG plant, an ARC 7 ice class LNG tanker, the equivalent of a Polar Class 3 (PC3) vessel, will be at low risk in December through April at some point during the current decade. May will continue to entail some risk (more than April) along relatively short segments of these routes through the end of the next decade (2030-2039). Come June, snow rapidly melts away, and thereafter the underlying sea ice begins becomes thinner and less concentrated, greatly reducing risk. However, neither path is desirable for ARC 7 tankers due to shallow bathymetry in Sannikov Strait, and a more desirable path for these ships passes to the north of the New Siberian Islands (route 20, discussed further below). Conventional LNG tankers (i.e., non-ice-strengthened vessels according to the IMO classification), without icebreaker escorts, will continue to encounter dangerous or impassable conditions along many sections of the NSR through the end of this decade for many months of the year. Through 2039, these conventional tankers will be able to operate safely along NSR 6 from August through October. By 2040-2049, the span of safe operation increases to August through November, and by 2050-2059 it increases to July through November, assuming a northward deviation to avoid the Sannikov Strait.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Porting E3SM from LANL’s Open to Classified Computing Networks

This project used turquoise computing time to support a LANL TED project focused on porting E3SM to classified computing resources. Computing time was used to test and confirm a complete and working simulation and analysis workflow prior to porting to yellow and SCI-level computing platforms. The code port and all planned simulations and analysis were successful. E3SM analysis from simulations on classified platforms was published to C2S and will be used to demonstrate and advertise LANL’s classified Earth system modeling and analysis capabilities to current and new customers in the intelligence community. This project also significantly improved library and E3SM analysis support on turquoise, yellow, and classified computing platforms at LANL, which will result in benefits beyond the work discussed here.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Growth of Jupiter: Formation in disks of gas and solids and evolution to the present epoch

The formation of Jupiter is modeled via core-nucleated accretion, and the planet's evolution is simulated up to the present epoch. Throughout the phases when the planet acquires most of its heavy-element content, the calculation of solids' accretion accounts for interactions with an evolving disk of planetesimals. The phase of growth from an embryo of a few hundred kilometers in radius until the time when the accretion of gas overtakes solids' accretion was presented by D'Angelo et al., and the same numerical methods are applied here. Those calculations followed the formation for about 4 × 10 5 years, until the epoch when the heavy-element and hydrogen/helium masses were $M_Z ≈ 7.3$ and $M_{XY} ≈ 0.15$ Earth's masses ($M_⊕$), respectively, and $\dot {M} _{XY} ≈ $$\dot {M}_Z$. In this work, the calculation is continued through the phase when $M_{XY}$ grows to equal $M_Z$ , at which age, about 2.4 × 10 6 years, the total mass of the planet is $M_p ≈ 20 M_⊕$. About 9 × 10 5 years later, $M_p$ is approximately $60 M_⊕$ and $M_Z ≈ 16 M_⊕$, three-quarters of which are delivered by planetesimals larger than 10 km in radius. Around this epoch, the contraction of the envelope dictates gas accretion rates a few times 10 –3 $M_⊕$ per year, initiating the regime of disk-limited accretion, whereby the planet can accrete all the gas provided by the disk, and its evolution is therefore tied to disk's evolution. Growth is continued by constructing simplified models of protosolar accretion disks that evolve through viscous diffusion, winds, and accretion on the planet. Jupiter's formation ends after ≈ 3.4–4.2 Myr, depending on the applied disk viscosity parameter, when nebula gas disperses. The young Jupiter is 4.5–5.5 times as voluminous as it is presently and thousands of times as luminous, ~10 –5 $L_⊙$. The heavy-element mass is ≈ 20 $M_⊕$. The evolution proceeds through the cooling and contraction phase, in isolation except for solar irradiation. After 4570 Myr, the age of the solar system, radius and luminosity of the planet are within 10$\%$ of current values, accounting also for uncertainties in the power absorbed from the Sun. During formation, and soon thereafter, the planet exhibits features, e.g., luminosity and effective temperature, that may probe aspects of the latter stages of formation, if observable. These possibly distinctive features, however, seem to disappear within a few tens of Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photoevaporation and the Dispersal of Disks

Disk disperse in a few million years, before which they must form planets. Photoevaporation and viscosity are mainly responsible for disk dispersal. EUV, FUV and X-rays have all been suggested as photoevaporation agents, disk evolutionary scenarios and predicted mass loss rates in each case differ. Stellar mass and radiation field, disk properties, magnitude of viscosity, and dust evolution all play significant roles in determining the evolution of the disk and its lifetime. Observational diagnostics of photoevaperative flows include [Nell] and perhaps [OI]. These are at present inconclusive and better diagnostics are needed.

Stellar accretion↗

Recent Simulations of the Late Stages Growth of Jupiter

Presented by Lissauer et al. (2009, Icarus 199, 338) are used to test the model of capture of Jupiter's irregular satellites within proto-Jupiter's distended and thermally-supported envelope. We find such capture highly unlikely, since the envelope shrinks too slowly for a large number of moons to be retained, and many of those that would be retained would orbit closer to the planet than do the observed Jovian irregulars. Our calculations do not address (and therefore do not exclude) the possibility that the irregular satellites were captured as a result of gas drag within a circumjovian disk. Support for this research from NASA Outer Planets Research Program is gratefully acknowledged.

circumjovian disk↗