Organ Dose Assessment and Evaluation of Cancer Risk on Mars Surface
Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated on the surface of Mars using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. To account for the radiation transmission through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor. To describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance on the Mars surface at each elevation, the directional cosine distribution is implemented. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is then coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Finally, cancer risks for astronauts exploring Mars can be assessed by applying the NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model with the resultant organ dose estimates. Variations of organ doses and cancer risk quantities on the surface of Mars, which are due to a 16-km elevation range between the Tharsis Montes and the Hellas impact basin, are visualized on the global topography of Mars measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. It is found that cancer incidence risks are about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for male and female astronauts and in breast cancer for female astronauts. The number of safe days, defined by the upper 95% percent confidence level to be below cancer limits, on Mars is analyzed for several Mars mission design scenarios.