Engineering topics

Connell, Peter S.

Publications and source records attributed to Connell, Peter S..

12 records

NASA NTRS2004

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

We have used a three-dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM), developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), to carry out two simulations of the composition of the stratosphere under changing halogen loading for 1995 through 2030. The two simulations differ only in that one uses meteorological fields from a general circulation model while the other uses meteorological fields from a data assimilation system. A single year's winds and temperatures are repeated for each 36-year simulation. We compare results from these two simulations with an extensive collection of data from satellite and ground-based measurements for 1993-2000. Comparisons of simulated fields with observations of radical and reservoir species for some of the major ozone-destroying compounds are of similar quality for both simulations. Differences in the upper stratosphere, caused by transport of total reactive nitrogen and methane, impact the balance among the ozone loss processes and the sensitivity of the two simulations to the change in composition.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative Model Predictions of Antarctic Ozone Recovery to Input Meteorological Fields

We use the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the evolution of stratospheric ozone between 1995 and 2030, using boundary conditions consistent with the recent World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. We compare the Antarctic ozone recovery predictions of two simulations, one driven by an annually repeated year of meteorological data from a general circulation model (GCM), the other using a year of output from a data assimilation system (DAS), to examine the sensitivity of Antarctic ozone recovery predictions to the characteristic dynamical differences between GCM- and DAS-generated meteorological data. Although the age of air in the Antarctic lower stratosphere differs by a factor of 2 between the simulations, we find little sensitivity of the 1995-2030 Antarctic ozone recovery between 350 and 650 K to the differing meteorological fields, particularly when the recovery is specified in mixing ratio units. Percent changes are smaller in the DAS-driven simulation compared to the GCM-driven simulation because of a surplus of Antarctic ozone in the DAS-driven simulation which is not consistent with observations. The peak ozone change between 1995 and 2030 in both simulations is approx.20% lower than photochemical expectations, indicating that changes in ozone transport due to changing ozone gradients at 450 K between 1995 and 2030 constitute a small negative feedback. Total winter/spring ozone loss during the base year (1995) of both simulations and the rate of ozone loss during August and September is somewhat weaker than observed. This appears to be due to underestimates of Antarctic Cl(sub y) at the 450 K potential temperature level.

Considine, David B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

The most important use of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is to predict the future composition of the atmosphere. The amounts of gases like chlorofluorcarbons, methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane are changing and the stratospheric ozone layer will change because these gases are changing. Methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane all have natural sources, and also change because of human activity. Chlorofluorcarbons are man-made gases; these are known to decrease stratospheric ozone and future production is banned. They are long-lived gases, and many decades will pass before they are insignificant in the atmosphere. The models are used to predict changes in ozone and other gases; this is a straightforward application. The models must be also tested using observations for the present day atmosphere. This is a challenging task, because the model contains more than 50 species and more than 150 chemical reactions. Data from satellites, ground stations, aircraft and balloons are used to evaluate the model. Different models that are used in international assessments produce different results; in the most recent assessment some predict that ozone will return to 1980 levels by 2025 and others predict that this will not happen until 2050. Since all the parts of the models are conceptually the same, there must be differences in implementation that produce these differences, This work takes a single model, two different sets of winds and temperatures, and repeats the same prediction for the future. Here we compare the results for these two simulations with many observations. The purpose is to identify differences in the model results for the present atmosphere that will lead to different predictions. This sort of controlled comparison will reduce uncertainty in the predictions for stratospheric ozone.

Douglas, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

An Intercomparison of 2-D Models Within a Common Framework

A model intercomparison among the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) 2-D model, the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D model, and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2-D model allows us to separate differences due to model transport from those due to the model's chemical formulation. This is accomplished by constructing two hybrid models incorporating the transport parameters of the GSFC and LLNL models within the AER model framework. By comparing the results from the native models (AER and e.g. GSFC) with those from the hybrid model (e.g. AER chemistry with GSFC transport), differences due to chemistry and transport can be identified. For the analysis, we examined an inert tracer whose emission pattern is based on emission from a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) fleet; distributions of trace species in the 2015 atmosphere; and the response of stratospheric ozone to an HSCT fleet. Differences in NO(y) in the upper stratosphere are found between models with identical transport, implying different model representations of atmospheric chemical processes. The response of O3 concentration to HSCT aircraft emissions differs in the models from both transport-dominated differences in the HSCT-induced perturbations of H2O and NO(y) as well as from differences in the model represent at ions of O3 chemical processes. The model formulations of cold polar processes are found to be the most significant factor in creating large differences in the calculated ozone perturbations

Weisenstein, Debra K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The chemical and radiative effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption

To clarify the mechanisms leading to effects on stratospheric ozone, time-dependent stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment II (SAGE II) and cryogenic limb array elaton spectrometer (CLAES) aerosol optical extinction data and SAGE II surface area density are used as parameters in a two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged chemical radiative transport model. The model was integrated with time from before the eruption through December 1993. The modeled impact on global ozone results from increased rates of heterogeneous reactions on sulfate aerosols and from the increased radiative heating and scattering caused by these aerosols. When the aerosol heating is allowed to modify the temperature distribution, the maximum change calculated in equatorial column ozone is -1.6%. The calculated equatorial temperature change and peak local ozone change in October 1991 are +6K and -4%, respectively. When aerosol heating perturbs the circulation in the model, the maximum change in equatorial column ozone is -6%. Increased heterogeneous processing on sulfate aerosols is calculated to have changed equatorial column ozone in late 1991 by -1.5%. Global column ozone in the model in 1992 and 1993 changed by -2.8% and -2.4%, respectively. The relationship of ozone-controlling processes in the lower stratosphere is altered as well; HO(x) becomes the most important catalytic cycle, followed by ClO(x) and NO(x). This is driven by significant changes in trace gas concentrations. In October 1991, lower stratospheric, equatorial NO(x) decreased by 40%, ClO(x) increased by 60%, and HO(x) increased by 25%. When the effect of heterogeneous chemical processing on sulfate aerosols is combined with aerosol heating, modifying either circulation or temperature, dramatically different ozone fingerprints with time and latitude are predicted. Model-derived changes in the equatorial region in column ozone best represented the observed data when perturbed circulation was combined with heterogeneous chemical effects. However, at high latitudes, the increased ozone production from the strengthening of the mean circulation tends to cancel the heterogeneous reduction of ozone. This is not in good agreement with observed data, especially in 1992 and 1993. When the circulation is held fixed and the temperature allowed to change, and heterogeneous chemical effects are included, the equatorial ozone decrease predicted was too small for 1991. However, the mid- to high-latitude decrease in 1992 and 1993 is in better agreement with observed data.

Kinneson, Douglas E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Effects of stratospheric aerosol surface processes on the LLNL two-dimensional zonally averaged model

We have investigated the effects of incorporating representations of heterogeneous chemical processes associated with stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosol into the LLNL two-dimensional, zonally averaged, model of the troposphere and stratosphere. Using distributions of aerosol surface area and volume density derived from SAGE II satellite observations, we were primarily interested in changes in partitioning within the Cl- and N- families in the lower stratosphere, compared to a model including only gas phase photochemical reactions. We have considered the heterogeneous hydrolysis reactions N2O5 + H2O(aerosol) yields 2 HNO3 and ClONO2 + H2O(aerosol) yields HOCl + HNO3 alone and in combination with the proposed formation of nitrosyl sulfuric acid (NSA) in the aerosol and its reaction with HCl. Inclusion of these processes produces significant changes in partitioning in the NO(y) and ClO(y) families in the middle stratosphere.

Connell, Peter S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

An investigation of the processes controlling ozone in the upper stratosphere

Photolysis of vibrationally excited oxygen produced by ultraviolet photolysis of ozone in the upper stratosphere is incorporated into the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2-D zonally averaged chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The importance of this potential contributor of odd oxygen to the concentration of ozone is evaluated based upon recent information on vibrational distributions of excited oxygen and upon preliminary studies of energy transfer from the excited oxygen. When the energy transfer rate constants of previous work are assumed, increases in model ozone concentrations of up to 40 percent in the upper stratosphere are found, and the ozone concentrations of the model agree with measurements, including data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. However, the increase is about 0.4 percent when the larger energy transfer rate constants suggested by more recent experimental work are applied in the model. This indicates the importance of obtaining detailed information on vibrationally excited oxygen properties to evaluation of this process for stratospheric modelling.

Patten, Kenneth O., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on the radiative and chemical processes in the troposphere and stratosphere

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory two-dimensional zonally-averaged chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere was used to study the effects of the 15 June 1991 eruption of the Mt. Pinatubo volcano on stratospheric processes. SAGE 2 time-dependent aerosol surface area density and optical extinction data were used as input into the model. By 22 December 1991, a maximum equatorial change of -1.8 percent in column ozone was derived from heterogeneous chemical processes that convert NO(x) into HNO3 on sulfuric acid aerosols. Radiative feedbacks from increased aerosol optical thickness independently changes column ozone by approximately -3.5 percent for the same period. This occurs from increasing the net heating of the lower stratosphere, which indirectly increases chemical reaction rates via their temperature dependence and from changes in actinic fluxes, which directly modify photodissociation rates. Including both heterogeneous and radiative effects changes column ozone by -5.5 percent. The model-derived change overestimates the decrease in column ozone relative to the TOMS instrument on the Nimbus 7 satellite. Maximum local ozone decreases of 12 percent were derived in the equatorial region, at 25 km. Model-derived column NO2 peaked (-14 percent) at 30 deg S in October 1991. The timing of the NO2 peak is consistent with observation, but the model underestimates the magnitude of the decrease. Local concentrations of NO(x) (NO + NO2), ClO(x) (Cl + ClO), and HO(x) (OH + HO2), in the lower stratosphere between 30 deg S and 30 deg N, were calculated to have changed by -40 percent, +100 to +160 percent, and +120 to +140 percent respectively.

Kinnison, Douglas E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Theoretical predictions

In order to understand the impact of man made chemicals on the atmospheric ozone layer, it is essential to develop models that can perform long term predictions of future ozone changes. An advantage of using two dimensional models is that they can be used to predict latitudinal and seasonal changes in ozone. The formulation and recent improvements are described in 2-D models, which are used herein, along with the three dimensional models that are currently being developed to better simulate transport of chemically active trace gases, especially in polar regions. The range in 2-D model calculations is described. Selected fields calculated by these models are compared with observations. A number of scenarios have been defined, which encompass possible emission rates of different halocarbons. Because of the large uncertainties in the rates for heterogeneous processes, the calculated responses of the models include only the effects of homogeneous chemistry. One important distinction among the models is their ability to account for temperature feedbacks on the calculated ozone changes.

Brasseur, G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Halocarbon ozone depletion and global warming potentials

Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not contain an H atom, are not oxidized or photolyzed in the troposphere. These compounds are transported into the stratosphere where they decompose and can lead to chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion. The hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs or HFCs), in particular those proposed as substitutes for CFCs, contain at least one hydrogen atom in the molecule, which confers on these compounds a much greater sensitivity toward oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere, resulting in much shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CFCs, and consequently lower potential for depleting ozone. The available information is reviewed which relates to the lifetime of these compounds (HCFCs and HFCs) in the troposphere, and up-to-date assessments are reported of the potential relative effects of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, and halons on stratospheric ozone and global climate (through 'greenhouse' global warming).

Cox, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Relative effects on stratospheric ozone of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

Four atmospheric modeling groups have calculated relative effects of several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a, carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) on stratospheric ozone. Effects on stratospheric ozone were calculated for each compound and normalized relative to the effect of CFC-11. These models include the representations for homogeneous physical and chemical processes in the middle atmosphere but do no account for either heterogeneous chemistry or polar dynamics which are important in the spring time loss of ozone over Antarctica. Relative calculated effects using a range of models compare reasonably well. Within the limits of the uncertainties of these model results, compounds now under consideration as functional replacements for fully halogenated compounds have modeled stratospheric ozone reductions of 10 percent or less of that of CFC-11. Sensitivity analyses examined the sensitivity of relative calculated effects to levels of other trace gases, assumed transport in the models, and latitudinal and seasonal local dependencies. Relative effects on polar ozone are discussed in the context of evolving information on the special processes affecting ozone, especially during polar winter-springtime. Lastly, the time dependency of relative effects were calculated.

Fisher, Donald A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Statistical analysis of total ozone and stratospheric Umkehr data for trends and solar cycle relationship

Dobson total ozone data from 1970-1984 and stratospheric Umkehr profile ozone data from 1970-1981 are analyzed. The relationship between ozone and long-term solar cycle activity is examined using 10.7 cm solar flux data. From the Dobson data it is estimated that the overall global trend in total ozone is -0.26 + or -0.92 percent per decade, which indicates no significant overall trend; and for the total ozone-solar flux relationship there is a 1.18 + or - 0.66 percent change in total ozone from solar cycle minimum to maximum that reveals a positive relationship. Analysis of the Umkehr data reveals a negative trend of -0.30 + or - 0.17 percent per year in the layers 7 snd 8. The relationship between Umkehr data and solar flux in layers 6 and 7 is 2.57 + or - 1.25 percent and 3.40 + or - 2.16 percent change from solar cycle minimum to maximum; however, no significant relationship is detected in the higher layers 8 and 9. These estimates are compared with theoretical model calculations. It is noted that the estimated effects of solar cycle activity on total ozone and stratospheric ozone agree with calculations of photochemical models.

Reinsel, Gregory C.↗