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Cole, Wesley (ORCID:000000029194065X)

Publications and source records attributed to Cole, Wesley (ORCID:000000029194065X).

At least 19 records
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DOE OSTI2024

ReEDS Performance Improvement

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is an open-source, spatially explicit, long-term capacity expansion model for the bulk electric power system of the contiguous United States, encompassing multiple scenarios with technological and political assumptions (see https://github.com/NREL/ReEDS-2.0). With the increased needs for capabilities, higher temporal and spatial resolutions to model the evolution of the power system with modern technologies and low-carbon pathways, ReEDS' model solution times have increased significantly from 4-6 hours in 2018 to 18-48+ hours in 2023 . Also, the model size for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios reached 22 and 28 million equations and variables, respectively. These runtimes can be especially challenging under certain scenario settings (e.g., very high temporal or spatial resolution) or with limited computational power. In this presentation, we will discuss several methods we used to improve model runtime, including data preparation, model modification, and solver tuning. The implementation of these methods shrank the model size to 7.2 and 7.3 million equations and variables, respectively. Furthermore, this led to a 77% reduction in the model's run time for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios. We will discuss the process of identifying areas for solve time improvements and how the specific enhancements for the ReEDS model might be applied to other similar large-scale models.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Spatial Resolution in a High-Fidelity Capacity Expansion Model: An ERCOT Case Study

Capacity expansion models are important tools in examining the evolution of the electric power sector. Embedded in these tools are many modeling choices with consequential impacts on computational burden and associated analysis. In this study, we adjust the spatial resolution of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to understand the implications of higher-fidelity modeling on energy system projections and model solve times. The native ReEDS regions capture the contiguous United States in 134 balancing areas whereas the regions in the higher-resolution version are defined by over 3,000 U.S. counties. Using both resolutions, we conduct a case study of the Texas Interconnection (The Electric Reliability Council of Texas [ERCOT]) to explore differences in model projections and to inform appropriate applications of high spatial resolution in a large-scale, applied capacity expansion model.

county↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

Large-scale capacity expansion models typically rely on estimates of the power transfer limits between modeled zones. Accurate estimation of these interface transfer limits (ITLs) requires modeling the underlying transmission network. Here we expand on a maximum flow optimization method that uses linearized power flow to estimate transfer limits. We apply this method to a data set of the U.S. transmission network to estimate ITLs between U.S. counties. By calculating ITLs using different subsets of the network, we evaluate how the size of the network used in the estimation affects the results. The results show diminishing returns to ITL accuracy after six hops, suggesting that a network subset can reasonably be used to approximate ITLs. The county-level estimates produced in this study will support more spatially resolved capacity expansion modeling and will help inform policy making at local and national levels.

capacity planning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Annual Technology Baseline: The 2024 Electricity Update

Consistent cost and performance data for various electricity generation technologies can be difficult to find and may change frequently for certain technologies. With the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory annually provides an organized and centralized set of such cost and performance data. The ATB uses the best information from the Department of Energy national laboratories' energy analysts. The ATB has been reviewed by experts and it includes the following electricity generation and storage technologies: land-based wind, offshore wind, distributed wind, utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV), commercial-scale solar PV, residential-scale solar PV, concentrating solar power, geothermal power, hydropower, utility-scale battery storage, commercial battery storage, residential battery storage, pumped storage hydropower, nuclear, coal, and natural gas. EIA data for conventional biopower are included for reference. This webinar presentation introduces the 2024 update to the ATB Electricity data and documentation.

battery storage↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

Large-scale capacity expansion models typically rely on estimates of the power transfer limits between modeled zones. Accurate estimation of these interface transfer limits (ITLs) requires modeling the underlying transmission network. Here we expand on a maximum flow optimization method that uses linearized power flow to estimate transfer limits. We apply this method to a data set of the U.S. transmission network to estimate ITLs between U.S. counties. By calculating ITLs using different subsets of the network, we evaluate how the size of the network used in the estimation affects the results. The results show diminishing returns to ITL accuracy after six hops, suggesting that a network subset can reasonably be used to approximate ITLs. The county-level estimates produced in this study will support more spatially resolved capacity expansion modeling and will help inform policy making at local and national levels.

capacity planning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Getting to 100%: Six Strategies for the Challenging Last 10%

This presentation summarizes the challenge of decarbonizing the last 10%" of the power system and discusses six strategies for addressing that challenge. This presentation was given at the IRA, BIL, and the Future of Energy: A Summit to Support State Implementation" workshop in Washington, D.C., in April 2024.

carbon capture↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This presentation summarizes a recently published beginner's guide for understanding power system model results for long-term resource plans. This guide is designed to improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening dialogue between system planners and relevant stakeholders. It focuses on interpreting scenario results generated by power system planning models. These results are often used to inform integrated resource plans, which are long-term plans for a utility to meet future electricity requirements. Whether you are a state utility commissioner, commission staff, part of a state energy office, an intervenor in the planning process, or another stakeholder, this guide is designed to help you better weigh in on the modeling methods or interpret the model results to improve decision-making. This guide can enhance your understanding to ask the right questions, which can enable better understanding of results and key assumptions, data, and methods.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change

This dataset provides future supply curves representing the total resource potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the conterminous United States after accounting for the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULC). We use LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The LULC projections are subsequently fed into the renewable energy potential model (reV), which estimates total available wind and solar capacity after excluding non-developable land. Supply curves are provided for four IPCC scenarios in 2050: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. As a baseline, we also provide the supply curve from the B2 scenario in 2010. In addition to the supply curves, we also provide representative wind and solar generation profiles for each supply curve point. These generation profiles are provided as capacity factors and are based on a 2012 weather year using NSRDB and WindToolkit resource data. For more details on the supply curve and profile datasets included here please refer to README. Additional information on the supply curves and the LULC projections used to generate them, as well as an analysis of their impact on wind and solar deployment under decarbonization can be found in the publication linked below: "U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change Publication".

Array↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Siting Ordinances on Land Availability for Wind and Solar Development

In the United States, many siting regulations for wind and solar developments are created at the county or township level. Here we survey local zoning ordinances across the contiguous United States to understand the types and frequency of ordinances that might impact wind and solar development. We identify over 1,800 ordinances for wind and more than 800 ordinances for solar in 2022. To understand the impact of ordinances on anticipated land availability, we use spatial modelling on the setbacks specified in the ordinances. Extrapolating the setbacks throughout the country can reduce wind and solar resources by up to 87% and 38%, respectively, depending on the size of the setbacks applied. These results indicate the importance of capturing setback ordinances in resources assessments so as to not overstate resource potential, especially when considering highly decarbonized futures.

county↗
DOE OSTI2023

Annual Technology Baseline: The 2023 Electricity Update

Consistent cost and performance data for various electricity generation technologies can be difficult to find and may change frequently for certain technologies. With the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory annually provides an organized and centralized set of such cost and performance data. The ATB uses the best information from the Department of Energy national laboratories' renewable energy analysts. The ATB has been reviewed by experts and it includes the following electricity generation and storage technologies: land-based wind, offshore wind, distributed wind, utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV), commercial-scale solar PV, residential-scale solar PV, concentrating solar power, geothermal power, hydropower, utility-scale battery storage, commercial battery storage, residential battery storage, pumped storage hydropower, coal, and natural gas. EIA data for nuclear and conventional biopower are included for reference. This webinar presentation introduces the 2023 update to the ATB Electricity data and documentation.

capacity factor↗
DOE OSTI2023

2023 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies

These data provide the 2023 update of the Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Starting in 2015 NREL has presented the ATB, consisting of detailed cost and performance data, both current and projected, for electricity generation and storage technologies. The ATB products now include data (Excel workbook, Tableau workbooks, and structured summary csv files), as well as documentation and user engagement via a website, presentation, and webinar. Starting in 2021, the data are cloud optimized and provided in the OEDI data lake. The data for 2015 - 2020 are can be found on the NREL Data Search Page. The website documentation can be found on the ATB Website.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2023

Markets, Resources, and Environmental and Energy Justice (MarkeRs-EEJ)

This project will support the development of CO2U technologies and a CO2U industry by assessing the resource and market potential and infrastructure requirements for midterm (-2030) and long-term (-2050) deployment of CO2U technologies, as well as evaluating implications on energy justice factors such as air quality, gross domestic product (GDP), and jobs. Addressing both of these topics enables the project to provide context that can be used across a large portfolio of CO2U technologies so stakeholders can make decisions informed by both economic and societal factors.

BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Potential Role for New Nuclear in the U.S. Power System: A View from Electricity System Modelers

There are diverse views on the role nuclear power might play in a decarbonized energy system, with some vocal viewpoints suggesting nuclear should either have no role or that nuclear should be a key pillar. Here we present a perspective on the role of nuclear power based on our collective experience in modeling nuclear power within the decarbonized U.S. power systems. We summarize the costs of current reactor development projects, and compare their stated costs with the costs that our models indicate is necessary in order to see deployment of new nuclear. We also discuss aspects of new nuclear deployment that are not included in our models but can influence decisions about whether to invest in new nuclear capacity.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Peaking Potential of Long-Duration Energy Storage in the United States Power System

In this work, we investigated the peaking potential for storage with durations of 4 h up to durations of 168 h (1 week). The peaking potential for a given storage duration is the amount of storage that can be added to a power system before that storage can no longer serve the peak net demand period at full rated capacity. We found that for the United States, 168 h of storage would be sufficient to serve about 27 % of peak demand, or about 215 GW in the current system. However, more than one-half of this amount could be served by storage with 12 h or less of capacity. As deployment of wind and solar grows, the peaking potential increases significantly, and under decarbonization scenarios, approximately one-half of the peak demand could be served by storage of up to 168 h; but again, the majority of this storage could be with durations of up to 12 h. The potential is also driven by the mix of wind and solar, and by storage efficiency, with the deployment of solar having the largest impact for both storage peaking potential and the mix of durations.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear's Role in the U.S. Electricity System: A Multi-Model Inter-Comparison Analysis

A variety of US electric power sector capacity expansion models are used by decision makers and analysts to evaluate competition among generation, transmission, and storage technologies to meeting the demands of the system. CEMs use least-cost optimization to identify optimal portfolios of investments capable of satisfying all specified requirements. While CEMs are a useful tool to inform pathways to meet future needs, projections can differ significantly between tools for apparently similar scenario assumptions. Differences in model structure, scope, and input assumption contribute to this issue. This work compares model response with harmonization between four modeling teams on issues significant to the representation and development of nuclear energy.

capacity expansion model↗