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Clarke, John-Paul

Publications and source records attributed to Clarke, John-Paul.

Evacuated Airship for Mars Missions: NIAC Phase I, 2017

An evacuated or vacuum airship relies on the same principle of buoyancy used by standard balloons. However, unlike a balloon which uses a lighter than air gas to displace air and provide lift, the vacuum airship leverages a rigid structure to maintain a vacuum and displace air, thereby providing buoyancy. This method is similar to how a ship uses a rigid structure to displace water and fill the space with air; an evacuated airship uses the same mechanism, except air is displaced and the space remains vacant. Using this method, the evacuated airship is capable of utilizing the full potential of the displaced mass of air, which has interesting implications in the Martian atmosphere. Unlike other aerial vehicles, which are at a disadvantage in Martian atmospheric conditions, the evacuated airship benefits from the Martian atmosphere by virtue of the temperature and molecular composition. As a result, the evacuated airship offers an unprecedented payload capacity and, if implemented, may be used to transport current and future scientific instruments, other vehicles, rovers, and possibly even human habitations. A standard dirigible or balloon for Mars would have a severely limited span of operation and a very narrow field of study, nearly exclusively the atmosphere, but a vacuum airship can be used as a long term tool for many different missions: transportation, ground study, communications, atmospheric study, etcetera, thereby making it a far more economically sensible choice

Clarke, John-Paul

Development of Improved Models, Stochasticity, and Frameworks for the MIT Extensible Air Network Simulation

MEANS, the MIT Extensible Air Network Simulation, was created in February of 2001, and has been developed with support from NASA Ames since August of 2001. MEANS is a simulation tool which is designed to maximize fidelity without requiring data of such a low level as to preclude easy examination of alternative scenarios. To this end, MEANS is structured in a modular fashion to allow more detailed components to be brought in when desired, and left out when they would only be an impediment. Traditionally, one of the difficulties with high-fidelity models is that they require a level of detail in their data that is difficult to obtain. For analysis of past scenarios, the required data may not have been collected, or may be considered proprietary and thus difficult for independent researchers to obtain. For hypothetical scenarios, generation of the data is sufficiently difficult to be a task in and of itself. Often, simulations designed by a researcher will model exactly one element of the problem well and in detail, while assuming away other parts of the problem which are not of interest or for which data is not available. While these models are useful for working with the task at hand, they are very often not applicable to future problems. The MEAN Simulation attempts to address these problems by using a modular design which provides components of varying fidelity for each aspect of the simulation. This allows for the most accurate model for which data is available to be used. It also provides for easy analysis of sensitivity to data accuracy. This can be particularly useful in the case where accurate data is available for some subset of the situations that are to be considered. Furthermore, the ability to use the same model while examining effects on different parts of a system reduces the time spent learning the simulation, and provides for easier comparisons between changes to different parts of the system.

Clarke, John-Paul

Modeling and Control of Airport Queueing Dynamics under Severe Flow Restrictions

Based on field observations and interviews with controllers at BOS and EWR, we identify the closure of local departure fixes as the most severe class of airport departure restrictions. A set of simple queueing dynamics and traffic rules are developed to model departure traffic under such restrictions. The validity of the proposed model is tested via Monte Carlo simulation against 10 hours of actual operations data collected during a case-study at EWR on June 29,2000. In general, the model successfully reproduces the aggregate departure congestion. An analysis of the average error over 40 simulation runs indicates that flow-rate restrictions also significantly impact departure traffic; work is underway to capture these effects. Several applications and what-if scenarios are discussed for future evaluation using the calibrated model.

Carr, Francis

Runway Operations Planning: A Two-Stage Heuristic Algorithm

The airport runway is a scarce resource that must be shared by different runway operations (arrivals, departures and runway crossings). Given the possible sequences of runway events, careful Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is required if runway utilization is to be maximized. From the perspective of departures, ROP solutions are aircraft departure schedules developed by optimally allocating runway time for departures given the time required for arrivals and crossings. In addition to the obvious objective of maximizing throughput, other objectives, such as guaranteeing fairness and minimizing environmental impact, can also be incorporated into the ROP solution subject to constraints introduced by Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures. This paper introduces a two stage heuristic algorithm for solving the Runway Operations Planning (ROP) problem. In the first stage, sequences of departure class slots and runway crossings slots are generated and ranked based on departure runway throughput under stochastic conditions. In the second stage, the departure class slots are populated with specific flights from the pool of available aircraft, by solving an integer program with a Branch & Bound algorithm implementation. Preliminary results from this implementation of the two-stage algorithm on real-world traffic data are presented.

Anagnostakis, Ioannis

Software Tools to Support Research on Airport Departure Planning

A simple, portable and useful collection of software tools has been developed for the analysis of airport surface traffic. The tools are based on a flexible and robust traffic-flow model, and include calibration, validation and simulation functionality for this model. Several different interfaces have been developed to help promote usage of these tools, including a portable Matlab(TM) implementation of the basic algorithms; a web-based interface which provides online access to automated analyses of airport traffic based on a database of real-world operations data which covers over 250 U.S. airports over a 5-year period; and an interactive simulation-based tool currently in use as part of a college-level educational module. More advanced applications for airport departure traffic include taxi-time prediction and evaluation of "windowing" congestion control.

Carr, Francis

Evaluation of Improved Pushback Forecasts Derived from Airline Ground Operations Data

Accurate and timely predictions of airline pushbacks can potentially lead to improved performance of automated decision-support tools for airport surface traffic, thus reducing the variability and average duration of costly airline delays. One factor which affects the realization of these benefits is the level of uncertainty inherent in the turn processes. To characterize this inherent uncertainty, three techniques are developed for predicting time-to-go until pushback as a function of available ground-time; elapsed ground-time; and the status (not-started/in-progress/completed) of individual turn processes (cleaning, fueling, etc.). These techniques are tested against a large and detailed dataset covering approximately l0(exp 4) real-world turn operations obtained through collaboration with Deutsche Lufthansa AG. Even after the dataset is filtered to obtain a sample of turn operations with minimal uncertainty, the standard deviation of forecast error for all three techniques is lower-bounded away from zero, indicating that turn operations have a significant stochastic component. This lower-bound result shows that decision-support tools must be designed to incorporate robust mechanisms for coping with pushback demand stochasticity, rather than treating the pushback demand process as a known deterministic input.

Carr, Francis

Runway Operations Planning: A Two-Stage Solution Methodology

The airport runway is a scarce resource that must be shared by different runway operations (arrivals, departures and runway crossings). Given the possible sequences of runway events, careful Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is required if runway utilization is to be maximized. Thus, Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is a critical component of airport operations planning in general and surface operations planning in particular. From the perspective of departures, ROP solutions are aircraft departure schedules developed by optimally allocating runway time for departures given the time required for arrivals and crossings. In addition to the obvious objective of maximizing throughput, other objectives, such as guaranteeing fairness and minimizing environmental impact, may be incorporated into the ROP solution subject to constraints introduced by Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures. Generating optimal runway operations plans was approached in with a 'one-stage' optimization routine that considered all the desired objectives and constraints, and the characteristics of each aircraft (weight class, destination, Air Traffic Control (ATC) constraints) at the same time. Since, however, at any given point in time, there is less uncertainty in the predicted demand for departure resources in terms of weight class than in terms of specific aircraft, the ROP problem can be parsed into two stages. In the context of the Departure Planner (OP) research project, this paper introduces Runway Operations Planning (ROP) as part of the wider Surface Operations Optimization (SOO) and describes a proposed 'two stage' heuristic algorithm for solving the Runway Operations Planning (ROP) problem. Focus is specifically given on including runway crossings in the planning process of runway operations. In the first stage, sequences of departure class slots and runwy crossings slots are generated and ranked based on departure runway throughput under stochastic conditions. In the second stage, the departure class slots are populated with specific flights from the pool of available aircraft, by solving an integer program. Preliminary results from the algorithm implementation on real-world traffic data are included.

Anagnostakis, Ioannis

Air Traffic Control Response to Delays: A System Study of Newark International Airport

Airport delays are a significant problem in the United States air transportation system. Between 1999 and 2000 the number of flights delayed increased by 20 percent despite only a 0.4% increase in total operations. Newark International Airport (EWR), one of New York City's primary airports, is one of the airports in the United States most impacted by delays. Newark had the highest percentage of operations delayed in 1999, and was second only to LaGuardia Airport in 2000. Nearly 85% of delays at Newark are caused by adverse weather impacting an airport that may be characterized as having limited capacity and a very full schedule. Although Newark is heavily impacted by weather, delays have not increased significantly since 1998. This indicates that the airlines, air traffic control (ATC), and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey have successfully adapted. On June 29, 2000, a research team from MIT visited Newark airport to assess the effectiveness of any adaptations made, and to collect data on airline and ATC departure operations, and of the national and local weather affecting the airport. Airline and ATC personnel were also interviewed. Results of this study indicate that airspace capacity limitations downstream of the airport are a primary flow constraint at the airport, and that these constraints are the source of most surface delays. A number of tactical ATC responses to delays were examined, including the application of restrictions, re-routing with the help of the National Playbook, and the use of decision-aiding tools such as the Dynamic Spacing Program (DSP) and the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Improved interfacility communications and further utilization of runway 11-29 were identified as other tactical responses to delays, whilst the formation of the Air Traffic Control System Command Center and the New York Airspace redesign were identified as thekey strategic ATC responses to delays. Particularly the New York airspace redesign has great potential to reduce delays at the airport. Because delays at Newark are caused by downstream flow constraints, the responses at the airport can be applied to other airports as delays from downstream constraints increase. Such an increase in delays system wide from downstream constraints is inevitable as the system becomes more congested.

Evans, Antony D.

Integrated Design of a Telerobotic Workstation

The experiments described in this paper are part of a larger joint MIT/NASA research effort that focuses on the development of a methodology for designing and evaluating integrated interfaces for highly dexterous and multi-functional telerobots. Specifically, a telerobotic workstation is being designed for an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) anthropomorphic space station telerobot. Previous researchers have designed telerobotic workstations based upon performance of discrete subsets of tasks (for example, peg-in-hole, tracking, etc.) without regard for transitions that operators go through between tasks performed sequentially in the context of larger integrated tasks. The exploratory research experiments presented here took an integrated approach and assessed how subjects operating a full-immersion telerobot perform during the transitions between sub-tasks of two common EVA tasks. Preliminary results show that up to 30% of total task time is spent gaining and maintaining Situation Awareness (SA) of their task space and environment during transitions. Although task performance improves over the two trial days, the percentage of time spent on SA remains the same. This method identifies areas where workstation displays and feedback mechanisms are most needed to increase operator performance and decrease operator workload - areas that previous research methods have not been able to address.

Rochlis, Jennifer L.

Implementation Issues for Departure Planning Systems

The objective of the proposed effort is to investigate issues associated with the design and implementation of decision aiding tools to assist in improving the departure process at congested airports. This effort follows a preliminary investigation of potential Departure Planning approaches and strategies, which identified potential benefits in departure efficiency, and also in reducing the environmental impact of aircraft in the departure queue. The preliminary study bas based, in large part, on observations and analysis of departure processes at Boston, Logan airport. The objective of this follow-on effort is to address key implementation issues and to expand the observational base to include airports with different constraints and traffic demand. Specifically, the objectives of this research are to: (1) Expand the observational base to include airports with different underlying operational dynamics. (2) Develop prototype decision aiding algorithms/approaches and assess potential benefits. and (3) Investigate Human Machine Integration (HMI) issues associated with decision aids in tower environments.

Hansman, R. John