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Chatterjee, Samrat

Publications and source records attributed to Chatterjee, Samrat.

At least 37 records · Page 2
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DOE OSTI2021

Solvability, Operability, and Security for Cyber-Physical Systems: New Computational Methods with Revised Assumptions

In this paper discusses the use and integration of disparate but complementary tools for dealing with solvability, operability, and security challenges in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs): the Koopman Operator (KO) for solvability, Disjunctive Programming (DP) for operability, and Multi-Level Optimisation (MLO) for security. These methods can obviate the need for some of the traditional assumptions used in modelling CPSs. This paper demonstrates the methods' capabilities and considers ways to advance each method individually. It concludes by discussing how to integrate the different methods and identify useful synergies generated by doing so.

koopman operator, disjunctive programming, multi-l↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Koopman Operator: Capabilities and Recent Advances

In this paper, we provide an introduction to the Koopman Operator (KO) designed to be accessible to those not already familiar with the field. Our aim is to expose domain experts and controls practitioners to the concept and the capabilities the KO provides in the interest of promoting wider KO use; as such, we deliberately focus more on the uses and computational aspects of the KO than on the wealth of analytical results in the literature. Those researchers may then be able to pose new applications-based research questions for the KO community. We begin by defining the KO and describing its key components. Secondly, we discuss computational methods used to calculate the KO in practice. Thirdly, we provide an overview of different uses for the KO and its associated capabilities. Finally, we discuss some open areas of research for future KO work.

koopman operator, dynamical systems, optimal contr↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power system resilience through defender-attacker-defender models with uncertainty: an overview

Protecting and fortifying a power system to make it resilient is an important and hard problem to solve. The interaction between defenders and attackers, the availability of information and the complexity of power system require carefully selecting models and presenting the underlying assumptions. Trilevel defender-attacker-defender models have been developed to investigate the resilience of power systems. In this paper, we review trilevel models in power system application, with the aim of demonstrating the accessibility and applicability of these complex optimization formulations and discussing the underlying assumptions from these models. In particular, we highlight modeling choices, algorithmic details, and how operational and information uncertainty affects resilience versus the traditional complete-knowledge-based optimal solutions. We also describe other similar relevant models which lack such uncertainty and discuss insights on how to address operational, attacker, and defender related uncertainties in future research efforts.

multi-level optimization, defender-attacker-defend↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy

Risk analysis methods may be qualitative, semi-quantitative, or quantitative; adopt probabilistic and statistical theories; and implement concepts from core disciplines including operations research, reliability engineering, systems engineering, and applied mathematics. These methods continue to develop and evolve and have successfully been applied to address various homeland security mission challenges in recent years. The objective of this book is to: 1) highlight the role of risk analysis for informing homeland security policy decisions, and 2) describe case studies from academia, government, and industry that apply risk analysis methods for addressing challenges within each of the DHS missions.

national security, risk assessment, risk managemen↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hypergames and Cyber-Physical Security for Control Systems

The identification of the Stuxnet worm in 2010 provided a highly publicized example of a cyber attack that physically damaged an industrial control system. This raised public awareness about the possibility of similar attacks against other industrial targets—including critical infrastructure. Here, we use hypergames to analyze how strategic perturbations of sensor readings and calibrated parameters can be used to manipulate a system that employs optimal control. Hypergames form an extension of game theory that enables us to model strategic interactions where the players may have significantly different perceptions of the game(s) they are playing. Past work with hypergames has focused on relatively simple interactions consisting of a small set of discrete choices for each player. Here, we apply single-stage hypergames to larger systems with continuous variables. We find that manipulating constraints can be a more effective attacker strategy than manipulating objective function parameters. Moreover, the attacker need not change the underlying system to carry out a successful attack—it may be sufficient to deceive the defender controlling the system. It is possible to scale our approach up to even larger systems, but this will depend on the characteristics of the system in question, and we identify several characteristics that will make those systems amenable to hypergame analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resilience of Urban Transport Network-of-Networks under Intense Flood Hazards Exacerbated by Targeted Attacks

Natural hazards including floods can trigger catastrophic failures in interdependent urban transport network-of-networks (NoNs). Population growth has enhanced transportation demand while urbanization and climate change have intensified urban floods. However, despite the clear need to develop actionable insights for improving the resilience of critical urban lifelines, the theory and methods remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, as infrastructure systems become more intelligent, security experts point to the growing threat of targeted cyber-physical attacks during natural hazards. Here we develop a hypothesis-driven resilience framework for urban transport NoNs, which we demonstrate on the London Rail Network (LRN). We find that topological attributes designed for maximizing efficiency rather than robustness render the network more vulnerable to compound natural-targeted disruptions including cascading failures. Our results suggest that an organizing principle for post-disruption recovery may be developed with network science principles. Our findings and frameworks can generalize to urban lifelines and more generally to real-world spatial networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling

International trade provides an avenue for terrorists to smuggle illicit materials into a target country. Policymakers need models and decision support tools that are both reliable and germane to inform their responses to this. Game theoretic approaches have been used in the analysis of counterterrorism strategies, but the models involved have often been small and abstracted. To address this need, we have developed a multi-game model to account for both security-related and economic aspects of counter-smuggling interdiction efforts. Additionally, we use different games to represent different types of interactions, and these games are then coupled to each other to form an integrated model. In this paper, we demonstrate the model's capabilities on a representative system of ports (both foreign and domestic), trade routes, and commodities. We specifically investigate the impacts of changes in screening policies at domestic ports, detection device capabilities, shipping subsidies, and worldwide corruption levels. In these studies, we find that economic factors play a large role in the interdiction task and provide correspondingly important tools for deterrence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

An iterative learning and inference approach to managing dynamic cyber-vulnerabilities of complex systems

As modern systems become increasingly reliant on cyber-technologies and continue to be integrated with physical systems, managing risks from deliberate and non-deliberate sources is a significant research challenge. Unlike strictly physical systems, cyber-enabled physical systems are influenced by dynamic and evolving technologies, environments, and attack mechanisms. As a result, vulnerabilities are rapidly changing and difficult to detect and manage. While there is recent interest in the dynamic properties of performance through resilience analysis, limited research addresses the dynamic nature of cyber-system vulnerability. This paper presents a dynamic iterative learning approach to evaluate the state of health for systems as related to cyber-vulnerabilities. These time-varying system health characteristics may not be visible, but can be inferred using observable characteristics. The approach recognizes that multiple types of vulnerabilities need to be included in a holistic system health assessment. The methods are applied to the Common Vulnerability Scoring System database containing over 100,000 documented cybersecurity vulnerabilities. This work is the first to acknowledge the dynamic properties of cyber-vulnerability, while also inferring system health using observable data and hidden states of system health. This work will be of interest to managers of large-scale cyber-enabled physical systems who are seeking to prioritize system health investments.

Chatterjee, Samrat↗
DOE OSTI2019

Identification of Critical Airports from the Perspective of Delay and Disruption Propagation in Air Travel Networks

It is well-known that delays and disruptions that originate at certain airports end up spreading spread on the network to other airports, sometimes straining a large fraction of the system. Hence data-driven modeling of this phenomenon is important from the standpoint of planning and strategy. In this work, utilizing the publicly available data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), we employ the well-known influence maximization paradigm, to mine for the top airports in the US airport network, from the perspective of delay spread. In the process, we develop a diffusion simulator and implement a greedy algorithm to aid our task. We then explore the temporal trends by considering one winter month and one summer month in our analysis. Finally, we characterize the clusters in the US airport network and investigate the patterns of delay spread when airports in each of the clusters are affected.

Visweswara Sathanur, Arun↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cyber Threat Screening Using a Queuing-Based Game-Theoretic Approach

Dynamic and uncertain security environments, such as cyber systems, often involve strategic interactions among multiple decision-making agents. In this paper, we consider a cybersecurity setting where a system administrator (defender) has to screen malicious service requests of an attacker who seeks to exhaust available cyber resources and inconvenience users with normal requests. We propose a novel cyber-threat inspection model, based on Stackelberg games, that unies aspects of Threat Security Games with the Erlang-B queuing framework to provide equilibrium strategies for both the attacker and defender. In our proposed model, the defender seeks to determine the optimal number of inspection nodes required to maximize detection probability of malicious requests, while the attacker maximizes the probability of legitimate requests dropping out of the system. We derive analytical expressions of the equilibrium solutions of the proposed Stackelberg game under realistic assumptions on system observability and payoff structure of the players. A numerical case study is presented, and steps for further research are identified.

Cybersecurity, Stackelberg game, Erlang-B loss sys↗
DOE OSTI2019

Toward adaptive decision support for assessing infrastructure system resilience using hidden performance measures

The understanding of resilience is an emerging topic within the study of risks affecting distributed transportation infrastructure systems. Although recent studies have explored the quantification of system resilience, there has been limited research aimed at understanding the role of multiple performance measures, geographies, and modeling uncertainties within the assessment of resilience and associated decision-making. Under real-world conditions, there is an increased burden on analysts for translating observed system data (from human and electronic sensor observations) into the estimation of system performance that may not be directly observable. This paper addresses these issues using a scenario-based risk modeling approach to understand: 1) resilience of complex systems, often in cases of hidden (not readily observable) measures of performance, 2) resilience sensitivity to modeling uncertainties in event and system characteristics, and 3) resilience sensitivity to the measurement of performance across multiple dimensions. The methods in this paper integrate uncertainty-driven risk and probabilistic modeling within a multi-state Markov approach. This study contributes to the state-of-the-art by developing methodologies for assessing community perceptions of infrastructure system resilience using observable factors and inferring possibly hidden performance measures for facilitating adaptive decision-support. The methods are demonstrated with hypothetical spatiotemporal data for the Washington, District of Columbia and Baltimore, Maryland urban regions in the United States against evacuation-causing and shelter-in-place disruptive scenarios across multiple system performance dimensions. The analysis results may be useful for risk managers, supply chain analysts, emergency decision-makers, and the general public.

Infrastructure System Resilience, Risk Management,↗
DOE OSTI2018

Characterization of the Impact of Soft Errors on Iterative Methods

Soft errors caused by transient bit flips have the potential to significantly impact an application’s behavior. This has motivated the design of an array of techniques to detect, isolate, and correct soft errors using microarchitectural, architectural, compilation-based, or application-level techniques to minimize their impact on the executing application. The first step towards the design of good error detection/correction techniques involves an understanding of an application’s vulnerability to soft errors. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive characterization of the impact of soft errors on the convergence characteristics of six iterative methods using application-level fault injection. In particular, we consider the use of iterative methods to incrementally solve a linear systems of equations, which constitutes the core kernel in many scientific applications. We analyze the impact of soft errors in terms of the type of error (single- vs multi-bit), the distribution and location of bits affected, the data structure and the statement impacted, and variation with time. In addition to understanding the vulnerability of iterative solvers to soft errors, this characterization can aid the design of fault injection campaigns that ensure systematic coverage.

fault injection, iterative methods, Silent data co↗
DOE OSTI2018

Aviation Transportation, Cyber Threats, and Network-of-Networks: Modeling Perspectives for Translating Theory to Practice

Understanding aviation transportation infrastructure system behavior and coupling with communication networks is essential for securing and restoring functionality against cyber-enabled threats. While significant progress has been made in the past decade on developing infrastructure resilience theories based on network structure and operations, translating and generalizing them to real-world practice has often been challenging due to imperfect data and inapplicability of modeling assumptions. These typically include: 1) stylized network structures without uncertainty, 2) node homogeneity, 3) static criticality measures, and 4) unrealistic cascade models originating from single points of failure. This paper presents modeling perspectives that aim to address these theory-to-practice challenges using a well-grounded network-of-networks (NoN) construct. Real-world modeling challenges are identified and a network theory-guided conceptual NoN model is developed that may be operationalized with the U.S. national airspace system airport network (NASAN) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) communication network as application domain. Improving accuracy in loss of functionality estimates due to cyber events in communication networks and cascading air travel delay impacts is key for informing consequence-based decision support and risk/contingency analyses.

Bhatia, Udit↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantitative Assessment of Transportation Network Vulnerability with Dynamic Traffic Simulation Methods

Transportation networks are critical to the social and economic function of nations. Given the continuing increase in the populations of cities throughout the world, the criticality of transportation infrastructure is expected to increase. Thus, it is ever more important to mitigate congestion as well as to assess the impact disruptions would have on individuals who depend on transportation for their work and livelihood. Moreover, several government organizations are responsible for ensuring transportation networks are available despite the constant threat of natural disasters and terrorist activities. Most of the previous transportation network vulnerability research has been performed in the context of static traffic models, many of which are formulated as traditional optimization problems. However, transportation networks are dynamic because their usage varies over time. Thus, more appropriate methods to characterize the vulnerability of transportation networks should consider their dynamic properties. This paper presents a quantitative approach to assess the vulnerability of a transportation network to disruptions with methods from traffic simulation. Our approach can prioritize the critical links over time and is generalizable to the case where both link and node disruptions are of concern. We illustrate the approach through a series of examples. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides quantitative insight into the time varying criticality of links. Such an approach could be used as the objective function of less traditional optimization methods that use simulation and other techniques to evaluate the relative utility of a particular network defense to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience.

Shekar, Venkateswaran↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying Economic and Environmental Impacts of Transportation Network Disruptions with Dynamic Traffic Simulation

Several transportation network vulnerability models have been proposed. However, most only consider disruptions as a static snapshot in time and the impact on total travel time. These approaches cannot consider the time-varying nature of travel demand nor other undesirable outcomes that follow from transportation network disruptions. This paper proposes an algorithmic approach to assess the vulnerability of a transportation network that considers the time-varying demand with an open source dynamic transportation simulation tool. The open source nature of the tool allows us to systematically consider many disruption scenarios and quantitatively compare their relative criticality. This is far more efficient than traditional approaches which would require days or weeks of a transportation engineers time to manually set up, run, and assess these simulations. In addition to travel time, we also collect statistics on additional fuel consumed and the corresponding carbon dioxide emissions. Our approach, thus provides a more systematic approach that is both time-varying and can consider additional negative consequences of disruptions for decision makers to evaluate.

Shekar, Venkateswaran↗
DOE OSTI2017

Agent-Centric Approach for Cybersecurity Decision-Support with Partial Observability

Generating automated cyber resilience policies for real-world settings is a challenging research problem that must account for uncertainties in system state over time and dynamics between attackers and defenders. In addition to understanding attacker and defender motives and tools, and identifying “relevant” system and attack data, it is also critical to develop rigorous mathematical formulations representing the defender’s decision-support problem under uncertainty. Game-theoretic approaches involving cyber resource allocation optimization with Markov decision processes (MDP) have been previously proposed in the literature. Moreover, advancements in reinforcement learning approaches have motivated the development of partially observable stochastic games (POSGs) in various multi-agent problem domains with partial information. Recent advances in cyber-system state space modeling have also generated interest in potential applicability of POSGs for cybersecurity. However, as is the case in strategic card games such as poker, research challenges using game-theoretic approaches for practical cyber defense applications include: 1) solving for equilibrium and designing efficient algorithms for large-scale, general problems; 2) establishing mathematical guarantees that equilibrium exists; 3) handling possible existence of multiple equilibria; and 4) exploitation of opponent weaknesses. Inspired by advances in solving strategic card games while acknowledging practical challenges associated with the use of game-theoretic approaches in cyber settings, this paper proposes an agent-centric approach for cybersecurity decision-support with partial system state observability.

Tipireddy, Ramakrishna↗