Carr, Geoffrey A. | Engineering Papers

DOE OSTI2017

Cyber Deterrence and Stability

Throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, deterrence and arms control have been cornerstones of strategic stability between the superpowers. However, the weaponization of the cyber realm by State actors and the multipolar nature of cyber conflict now undermines that stability. Strategic stability is the state in which nations believe that if they act aggressively to undermine U.S. national interests and the post-World War II liberal democratic order, the consequences will outweigh the benefits. The sense of lawlessness and lack of consequences in the cyber realm embolden States to be more aggressive in taking actions that undermine stability. Accordingly, this paper examines 1) the role of deterrence and arms control in securing cyber stability, and 2) the limitations and challenges associated with these traditional national security paradigms as applied to this emerging threat domain. This paper demonstrates that many 20th-century deterrence and arms control concepts are not particularly applicable in the cyber realm. However, they are not entirely irrelevant. The United States can distill lessons learned from this rich deterrence and arms control experience to develop and deploy a strategy to advance cyber stability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Meeting Summary of Kitchen Cabinet on Financial Due Diligence to Reduce Proliferation Risks

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory convened the Kitchen Cabinet (KC) to facilitate a candid discussion about the role of financial institutions (FIs) in antiproliferation efforts to reduce nuclear proliferation risks by identifying suspicious business transactions and exports when making lending or insurance decisions. The meeting brought together a group of export control specialists, largely representatives from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) Participating Governments (PGs) and finance experts representing banks and insurance companies. By assembling a KC of experts, the group could understand what suspicious transactions look like from each other’s perspectives and better inform each of their operations. The goal was to develop red flags FIs could use to identify suspicious proliferation-related transactions and to help governments gain a clearer picture of proliferation using financial information.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗