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Carlson, Nicholas A.

Publications and source records attributed to Carlson, Nicholas A..

Refinery Perspective on Decarbonizing with Marine Biofuels

This work seeks to understand what biofuel production pathways a refinery might prefer to produce very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) for marine applications. A comprehensive refinery optimization model was modified to allow for (1) direct blending of soy biodiesel, renewable diesel, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and several pyrolysis oils and (2) indirect blending of all pyrolysis oils via co-processing in a fluidized catalytic cracker (FCC) and diesel hydrotreater into the marine fuel pool. Results showed that preferred pathways to bio-VLSFO production included co-processing low-quality pyrolysis oil in a FCC to blend the resulting biogenic light cycle oil, directly blending soy biodiesel, and directly blending small quantities of pyrolysis oil. Bio-VLSFO production costs were compared to those of fossil VLSFO subject to different marine fuel demands, benchmark crude oil prices, and biogenic fractions in the finished product. Given benchmark crude oil prices over 60 $/bbl, bio-VLSFO production appeared to be significantly cheaper than fossil VLSFO. Corresponding marginal abatement costs of CO 2 mostly ranging from -300 to 350 $/ton of CO 2 were also determined using a simplified but novel approach to allow for a comparison to other decarbonization strategies. In conclusion, this work indicates that low-sulfur contents in biofuels, relatively relaxed specifications for marine fuels, and current difficulties in meeting VLSFO specifications with crude oils can combine to make bio-VLSFO production cost-effective. Moreover, marine fuels appear to be a good entry point for refiners to start decarbonizing with biofuel pathways that could eventually be extended to other product pools.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Economic impact and risk analysis of integrating sustainable aviation fuels into refineries

The growth of the aviation industry coupled with its dependence on energy dense, liquid fuels has brought sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) research to the forefront of the biofuels community. Petroleum refineries will need to decide how to satisfy the projected increase in jet fuel demand with either capital investments to debottleneck current operations or by integrating bio-blendstocks. This work seeks to compare jet production strategies on a risk-adjusted, economic performance basis using Monte-Carlo simulation and refinery optimization models. Additionally, incentive structures aiming to de-risk initial SAF production from the refiner’s perspective are explored. Results show that market sensitive incentives can reduce the financial risks associated with producing SAFs and deliver marginal abatement costs ranging between 136-182 $/Ton-CO2e.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Economic analysis of the benefits to petroleum refiners for low carbon boosted spark ignition biofuels

A refinery modeling framework is developed to estimate the benefits of blending high-quality biofuels directly with refinery gasoline components for attaining a premium grade fuel (also termed as Co-Optima Boosted SI gasoline here). Our results change the paradigm of bio-blendstocks (BBs) being competitors to fossil components, by identifying opportunities for refineries to add value to their product slate, from some favorable BB properties. This potential value can be characterized by calculating the breakeven value (BEV), as defined down below. The proposed modeling framework incorporates extensive data from (1) projected product over the next few decades, (2) crude oil and refinery products pricing, and (3) fuel specifications. The complete refinery models serve as a basis for assessing the value of biofuels, assuming profitability remains the same for representative petroleum refinery configurations. Our assessment showed wide range of variation of biofuels BEV from $\$$20-$\$$120/bbl, within the considered blending level and crude prices. Further, the BEV was correlated with the fuel octane ratings such as octane numbers (research, RON and motor octane numbers, MON) and both antiknock index (AKI, average of RON and MON) and sensitivity (S, difference between RON and MON), with a slightly higher correlation with the sensitivity. However, the expected decrease in gasoline demand for the upcoming years could negatively impact biofuels demand and value, in a business-as-usual scenario. Our analysis also showed a more valuable bio-blendstocks incorporation in smaller refineries since they can enhance the capabilities for producing specialty, high-value fuels/products, and introduce high octane-barrels into otherwise constrained blending operations. Additional implications towards refiners include opportunities to rebalance operations, access to high-value fuel markets, and synchronization with broader transportation industry trends. Furthermore, results indicate the value of Co-Optima boosted spark ignition (BSI) efficiency gains can extend to refiners to incentivize decarbonization and diversified feedstock production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗