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Butler, D. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Butler, D. M..

At least 19 records

EOS - The earth observing system of the 1990s

Attention is given to the deliberations of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Science and Mission Requirements Working Group, which has addressed the requirements and prospects for low earth orbit sensor platforms in the 1990s. The proposed EOS network would link data users with mission data repositories. Three EOS instrument packages have been chosen on the basis of synergistic instrument groupings for making simultaneous observations of selected phenomena over a variety of wavelengths.

Arvidson, R. E.

Assessment models

The types of models used in assessment of possible chemical perturbations to the stratosphere are reviewed. The statue of one and two dimensional models are discussed. The problem of model validation is covered before the status of photochemical modeling efforts is discussed. A hierarchy of tests for photochemical models is presented.

Pyle, J. A.

Solar Terrestrial Physics: Present and Future

The following topics relating to solar-terrestrial interactions are considered: (1) reconnection of magnetic fields; (2) particle acceleration; (3) solar magnetic flux; (4) magnetohydrodynamic waves and turbulence in the Sun and interplanetary medium; (5) coupling of the solar wind to the magnetosphere; (6) coronal transients; (7) the connection between the magnetosphere and ionosphere; (8) substorms in the magnetosphere; (9) solar flares and the solar terrestrial environment; (10) shock waves in the solar terrestrial environment; (11) plasma transport and convection at high latitudes; and (12) high latitude ionospheric structure.

Butler, D. M.

Integrated remote sensing of the earth from low earth orbit in the 1990's

Trends in the areas of science, data systems, instruments and space technologies and their related infrastructures that will be experienced in earth remote sensing activities from LEO in the 1990s are discussed. Interdisciplinary studies will examine the flow of energy through the earth system, encompassing surveys of atmospheric and ocean circulations, the hydrologic cycle, and biogeochemical cycles. Mainframe computer assimilation of large data inputs will be associated with distributed microcomputer processing and analyses. Single satellite antennas will scan several microwave frequencies simultaneously, e.g., taking data on vegetation, water, and ice. Broadening the range of simultaneous observations will require multiinstrumented free-flying platforms, placed in orbit, repaired and/or retrieved by the Shuttle. Future instrumentation will include visible/IR imagers and the multifrequency microwave sounders with capabilities mainly limited by the availability of sufficient data-handling facilities.

Butler, D. M.

Input sensitivity study of a stratospheric photochemistry model

A general technique for calculating the sensitivities, uncertainties and overall imprecision of a model to a set of input parameters is described and applied to the calculation of CFM (chlorofluoromethane) induced stratospheric ozone depletion. The input data set used is reaction rates and the technique highlights those that most need further study in the laboratory. The convolution of individual uncertainties to obtain an overall imprecision gives good agreement with the results of Monte-Carlo calculations using the same model.

Butler, D. M.

Possible effects of volcanic eruptions on stratospheric minor constituent chemistry

Although stratosphere penetrating volcanic eruptions have been infrequent during the last half century, periods have existed in the last several hundred years when such eruptions were significantly more frequent. Several mechanisms exist for these injections to affect stratospheric minor constituent chemistry, both on the long-term average and for short-term perturbations. These mechanisms are reviewed and, because of the sensitivity of current models of stratospheric ozone to chlorine perturbations, quantitative estimates are made of chlorine injection rates. It is found that, if chlorine makes up as much as 0.5 to 1% of the gases released and if the total gases released are about the same magnitude as the fine ash, then a major stratosphere penetrating eruption could deplete the ozone column by several percent. The estimate for the Agung eruption of 1963 is just under 1% an amount not excluded by the ozone record but complicated by the peak in atmospheric nuclear explosions at about the same time.

Stolarski, R. S.

The reaction Cl + H2CO yields HCl + HCO: Decreased sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to chlorine perturbations

The absolute rate constant for the reaction Cl + H2CO yields HCl + HCO has been determined by the flash-photolysis-resonance fluorescence method to be + or - 0.9 (2 sigma) x 10 to the -11th power cu cm/molecule per sec at 298 K and to have a negligible temperature dependence. This rate, which at stratospheric temperatures is more than 2000 times faster than the rate of Cl + CH4 and more than a factor of 2 faster than Cl + HO2, indicates that formaldehyde (H2CO) will compete significantly with methane (CH4) and HO2 for the conversion of active chlorine in the stratosphere to the inactive reservoir HCl. Chlorine will thus be a less efficient destroyer of stratospheric ozone than previously believed. One-dimensional eddy-diffusion photochemical model calculations indicate that the eventual ozone depletion for a steady-state chlorfluoromethane release at 1975 rates (750,000 tons/year) will be lowered from 20% to 18.5% by the inclusion of this reaction.

Stief, L. J.

The uncertainty in ozone calculations by a stratospheric photochemistry model

At present, there is an apparent conflict between one-dimensional stratospheric photochemistry models used in predicting ozone depletion and average data for stratospheric ozone. This conflict is in three particulars - column density of O3 and ozone density in the regions around 30 km and 50 km altitude. A study of the sensitivity of one such model to the values of reaction rates, boundary conditions, solar intensities, photolysis cross sections, and O(1D) yield parameters reveals that even at the 2-sigma uncertainty limit due to these input parameters, the model does not overlap the data for O3 density at 30 km and 50 km. The data is outside the 1-sigma model uncertainty limit for O3 column density. The study also shows the relative contribution of the various parameters studied to the imprecision in these model results.

Butler, D. M.

Interstellar cloud material - Contribution to planetary atmospheres

A statistical analysis of the properties of dense interstellar clouds indicates that the solar system has encountered at least a dozen clouds of sufficient density to cause planets to accumulate nonnegligible amounts of some isotopes. The effect is most pronounced for neon. This mechanism could be responsible for much of the neon in Earth's atmosphere. For Mars, the predicted amount of neon added by cloud encounters greatly exceeds the present abundance.

Butler, D. M.

Uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. I - Development of a concise stratospheric model. II - Monte Carlo analysis of imprecisions due to reaction rates

The paper discusses the development of a concise stratospheric model which uses iteration to obtain coupling between interacting species. The one-dimensional, steady-state, diurnally-averaged model generates diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks for species odd oxygen, H2O, H2, CO, N2O, odd nitrogen, CH4, CH3Cl, CCl4, CF2Cl2, CFCl3, and odd chlorine. The model evaluates steady-state perturbations caused by injections of chlorine and NO(x) and may be used to predict ozone depletion. The model is used in a Monte Carlo study of the propagation of reaction-rate imprecisions by calculating an ozone perturbation caused by the addition of chlorine. Since the model is sensitive to only 10 of the more than 50 reaction rates considered, only about 1000 Monte Carlo cases are required to span the space of possible results.

Rundel, R. D.

The reaction Cl + H2CO yields HCl + HCO: Decreased sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to chlorine perturbations

The absolute rate constant for the reaction Cl + H2CO yields HCl + HCO was determined by the flash-photolysis resonance fluorescence method to be 7.5 plus or minus 0.9 (2 sigma) times 10 to the minus 11th power cu cm/molecule sec at 298 K and to have a negligible temperature dependence. This rate which is more than 2000 times faster than the rate of Cl + CH4 indicates that formaldehyde (H2CO) will compete significantly with methane (CH4) for the conversion of active chlorine in the stratosphere to the inactive reservoir HCl. Chlorine will thus be a less efficient destroyer of stratosphere ozone than previously believed. Ambient stratospheric ozone will depend less on the ambient chlorine amount and the predicted response to chlorine perturbations will be lessened. One-dimensional eddy-diffusion photochemical model calculations indicate a factor of 1.1 less sensitivity to chlorine than recently reported. For a steady-state CFM release at 1975 rates (750,000 tons/year) the eventual ozone depletion is now calculated to be 14%.

Stief, L. J.

Photoelectrons and electron temperatures in the Venus ionosphere

Solar wind induced magnetic fields may be present in the dayside ionosphere of Venus. A scale analysis and detailed calculations of the effects of different field line orientations on photoelectron transport and electron temperature show that horizontal magnetic fields considerably alter the profiles of electron heating and temperature and photoelectron flux. Direct injection of solar wind electrons has been considered, and the effects are minor. No evidence is found to support the suggestion that a sharp gradient in electron temperature is the cause of certain features in the Mariner-10 electron density profile.

Butler, D. M.

Effect of temperature coupling on ozone depletion prediction

The effects of chlorine perturbations on both the temperature and the ozone distribution in the stratosphere have been studied using a simplified radiative-photochemical model. The model solves the hydrostatic equation for total density in a self-consistent manner as the temperature is changed. Radiative coupling is found to have a significant effect on both the thermal structure and the ozone distribution, particularly in the 35-50-km region. By increasing the ClX mixing ratio by 5.0 ppbv, the temperature in this region is decreased by 5 to 10 K with a slight increase below 30 km. The local ozone depletion around 40 km due to added ClX is smaller compared with the estimate made by keeping the temperature fixed to the ambient condition. However, the integrated effect of radiative coupling is to increase the calculated column ozone depletion by 15% to 25% in this model.

Chandra, S.

The sensitivity of a model of the ambient stratosphere to empirical inputs

The usefulness of a general application of sensitivity studies to the modeling of the ambient stratosphere using the GSFC steady-state photochemistry model is examined. The comparison of theoretical model results with field measurements of trace species is used to assess the applicability of the model to the stratosphere, to help determine the eddy diffusion profile, and to validate mechanisms within the photochemistry of the model. Specific examples of each are discussed and the results of a comprehensive sensitivity study used to elucidate certain points about the comparison are analyzed.

Butler, D. M.

Interactions of simultaneous perturbations of stratospheric photochemistry

The combined effects of two specific ozone perturbation mechanisms are examined. The need to look back to predictions of the near past as well as the future as a means of testing model results is emphasized. The two perturbations examined are that due to chlorofluoromethane (CFM) release and that due to the air pollutants CO and nitrogen oxide. A steady-state model is used to investigate the characteristics of the stratospheric-tropospheric photochemical system for differing levels of CO and nitrogen oxide fluxes at the ground and for simultaneously changing the stratospheric from CFM release. Two basic scenarios chosen to illustrate the competing effects of the two types of perturbation use the time-dependence for chlorine radical buildup calculated for constant continued release of CFM's.

Butler, D. M.

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. 2: Uncertainties due to reaction rates

A concise stratospheric model was used in a Monte-Carlo analysis of the propagation of reaction rate uncertainties through the calculation of an ozone perturbation due to the addition of chlorine. Two thousand Monte-Carlo cases were run with 55 reaction rates being varied. Excellent convergence was obtained in the output distributions because the model is sensitive to the uncertainties in only about 10 reactions. For a 1 ppby chlorine perturbation added to a 1.5 ppby chlorine background, the resultant 1 sigma uncertainty on the ozone perturbation is a factor of 1.69 on the high side and 1.80 on the low side. The corresponding 2 sigma factors are 2.86 and 3.23. Results are also given for the uncertainties, due to reaction rates, in the ambient concentrations of stratospheric species.

Stolarski, R. S.