Engineering topics

Bosilovich, Michael G.

Publications and source records attributed to Bosilovich, Michael G..

At least 55 records · Page 3

NASA NTRS2012

On the Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Observations for Climate

The long observational record is critical to our understanding of the Earth s climate, but most observing systems were not developed with a climate objective in mind. As a result, tremendous efforts have gone into assessing and reprocessing the data records to improve their usefulness in climate studies. Many challenges remain, such as tracking the improvement of processing algorithms and limited spatial coverage. Reanalyses have fostered significant research, yet reliable global trends in many physical fields are not yet attainable, despite significant advances in data assimilation and numerical modeling. Communication of the strengths, limitations and uncertainties of reprocessed observations and reanalysis data, not only among the community of developers, but also with the extended research community, including the new generations of researchers and the decision makers is crucial for further advancement of the observational data records. WCRP provides the means to bridge the different motivating objectives on which national efforts focus.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of the Relative Contribution of Observing Systems in Reanalyses: Aircraft Temperature Bias and Analysis Innovations

Reanalyses have become important sources of data in weather and climate research. While observations are the most crucial component of the systems, few research projects consider carefully the multitudes of assimilated observations and their impact on the results. This is partly due to the diversity of observations and their individual complexity, but also due to the unfriendly nature of the data formats. Here, we discuss the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and a companion dataset, the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO). GIO is simply a post-processing of the assimilated observations and their innovations (forecast error and analysis error) to a common spatio-temporal grid, following that of the MERRA analysis fields. This data includes in situ, retrieved and radiance observations that are assimilated and used in the reanalysis. While all these disparate observations and statistics are in a uniform easily accessible format, there are some limitations. Similar observations are binned to the grid, so that multiple observations are combined in the gridding process. The data is then implicitly thinned. Some details in the meta data may also be lost (e.g. aircraft or station ID). Nonetheless, the gridded observations should provide easy access to all the observations input to the reanalysis. To provide an example of the GIO data, a case study evaluating observing systems over the United States and statistics is presented, and demonstrates the evaluation of the observations and the data assimilation. The GIO data is used to collocate 200mb Radiosonde and Aircraft temperature measurements from 1979-2009. A known warm bias of the aircraft measurements is apparent compared to the radiosonde data. However, when larger quantities of aircraft data are available, they dominate the analysis and the radiosonde data become biased against the forecast. When AMSU radiances become available the radiosonde and aircraft analysis and forecast error take on an annual cycle. While this supports results of previous work that recommend bias corrections for the aircraft measurements, the interactions with AMSU radiances will also require further investigation. This also provides an example for reanalysis users in examining the available observations and their impact on the analysis. GIO data is presently available alongside the MERRA reanalysis.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty in Analyzed Water and Energy Budgets at Continental Scales

Operational analyses and retrospective-analyses provide all the physical terms of mater and energy budgets, guided by the assimilation of atmospheric observations. However, there is significant reliance on the numerical models, and so, uncertainty in the budget terms is always present. Here, we use a recently developed data set consisting of a mix of 10 analyses (both operational and retrospective) to quantify the uncertainty of analyzed water and energy budget terms for GEWEX continental-scale regions, following the evaluation of Dr. John Roads using individual reanalyses data sets.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA

Reanalyses, retrospectively analyzing observations over climatological time scales, represent a merger between satellite observations and models to provide globally continuous data and have improved over several generations. Balancing the Earth s global water and energy budgets has been a focus of research for more than two decades. Models tend to their own climate while remotely sensed observations have had varying degrees of uncertainty. This study evaluates the latest NASA reanalysis, called the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from a global water and energy cycles perspective. MERRA was configured to provide complete budgets in its output diagnostics, including the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU), the term that represents the observations influence on the analyzed states, alongside the physical flux terms. Precipitation in reanalyses is typically sensitive to the observational analysis. For MERRA, the global mean precipitation bias and spatial variability are more comparable to merged satellite observations (GPCP and CMAP) than previous generations of reanalyses. Ocean evaporation also has a much lower value which is comparable to observed data sets. The global energy budget shows that MERRA cloud effects may be generally weak, leading to excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface. Evaluating the MERRA time series of budget terms, a significant change occurs, which does not appear to be represented in observations. In 1999, the global analysis increments of water vapor changes sign from negative to positive, and primarily lead to more oceanic precipitation. This change is coincident with the beginning of AMSU radiance assimilation. Previous and current reanalyses all exhibit some sensitivity to perturbations in the observation record, and this remains a significant research topic for reanalysis development. The effect of the changing observing system is evaluated for MERRA water and energy budget terms.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Global Water and Energy Budgets

The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses has completed 27 years of data) soon to be caught up to present. Here) we present an evaluation of those years currently available) including comparisons with the existing long reanalyses (ERA40) JRA25 and NCEP I and II) as well as with global data sets for the water and energy cycle. Time series shows that the MERRA budgets can change with some of the variations in observing systems, but that the magnitude of energy imbalance in the system is improved with more observations. We will present all terms of the budgets in MERRA including the time rates of change and analysis increments (tendency due to the analysis of observations).

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Energy Budget of the Polar Atmosphere in MERRA

Components of the atmospheric energy budget from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated in polar regions for the period 1979-2005 and compared with previous estimates, in situ observations, and contemporary reanalyses. Closure of the energy budget is reflected by the analysis increments term, which results from virtual enthalpy and latent heating contributions and averages -11 W/sq m over the north polar cap and -22 W/sq m over the south polar cap. Total energy tendency and energy convergence terms from MERRA agree closely with previous study for northern high latitudes but convergence exceeds previous estimates for the south polar cap by 46 percent. Discrepancies with the Southern Hemisphere transport are largest in autumn and may be related to differences in topography with earlier reanalyses. For the Arctic, differences between MERRA and other sources in TOA and surface radiative fluxes maximize in May. These differences are concurrent with the largest discrepancies between MERRA parameterized and observed surface albedo. For May, in situ observations of the upwelling shortwave flux in the Arctic are 80 W/sq m larger than MERRA, while the MERRA downwelling longwave flux is underestimated by 12 W/sq m throughout the year. Over grounded ice sheets, the annual mean net surface energy flux in MERRA is erroneously non-zero. Contemporary reanalyses from the Climate Forecast Center (CFSR) and the Interim Re-Analyses of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I) are found to have better surface parameterizations, however these collections are also found to have significant discrepancies with observed surface and TOA energy fluxes. Discrepancies among available reanalyses underscore the challenge of reproducing credible estimates of the atmospheric energy budget in polar regions.

Cullather, Richard I.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Observing System Variations Effect on Reanalyses

Reanalyses integrate multitudes of satellite and conventional observations data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. The result is that many disparate observation platforms, discontinuous in space and time, lead to complete and consistent representations the state of the weather. The component also provides physical fields rarely or never observed. However, the numerical model bias is continuously being corrected by the observational analysis, and this bias changes as variations in the observations occur. NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) sensitivity to variations in the observing systems are explored. Specifically, we will evaluate the water budget and transport processes as they relate to the advent of SSM/I and AMSU-A radiance assimilation, and an additional case of radiosonde station that exhibits a dramatic shift in mean water states. The MERRA input observation data, now available online, is used to explore these variations.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Surface Fluxes Derived from Operational Analyses

Operational numerical weather prediction systems assimilate tremendous amounts of observations to produce global analyses of the atmospheric states. Since the systems include significant contributions from the model components, physical fields, such as the turbulent heat fluxes, can also be derived. However, the physical fields are indirectly constrained by the data assimilation, and so subject to uncertainty in the model parameterizations. Recently, 10 international operational analyses have been collected and reprocessed through the Coordinated Enhanced. Observing Period (CEOP). Comparisons against independent observations (global precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation) show that while there is significant range of the individual analyses, the ensemble of analyses provide data closest the observations. Here, we evaluate the collection of land surface turbulent heat fluxes. The data are available for Oct 2002 - Dec 2004, at 6 hourly, daily and monthly intervals. An ensemble mean and its variance have been computed. we will analyze the range of analysis results at daily and seasonal time scales, and where possible compare with existing observations.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications

The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses has produced several years of data, on the way to a. completing the 1979-present modern satellite era. Here, we present a preliminary evaluation of those years currently available, including comparisons with the existing long reanalyses (ERA40, JPA25 and NCEP I and II) as well as with global data sets for the water and energy cycle. Time series shows that the MERRA budgets can change with some of the variations in observing systems. We will present all terms of the budgets in MERRA including the time rates of change and analysis increments (tendency due to the analysis of observations).

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Global Water and Energy Budgets

In the Summer of 2009, NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) will have completed 28 years of global satellite data analyses. Here, we characterize the global water and energy budgets of MERRA, compared with available observations and the latest reanalyses. In this analysis, the climatology of the global average components are studied as well as the separate land and ocean averages. In addition, the time series of the global averages are evaluated. For example, the global difference of precipitation and evaporation generally shows the influence of water vapor observations on the system. Since the observing systems change in time, especially remotely sensed observations of water, significant temporal variations can occur across the 28 year record. These then are also closely connected to changes in the atmospheric energy and water budgets. The net imbalance of the energy budget at the surface can be large and different signs for different reanalyses. In MERRA, the imbalance of energy at the surface tends to improve with time being the smallest during the most recent and abundant satellite observations.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Global Water and Energy Budgets

The Modern. Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses has produced several years of data, on the way to a completing. the 1979-present modern satellite era. Here, we present a preliminary evaluation of those years currently available, includin g comparisons with the existing long reanalyses (ERA40, JRA25 and NCE P I and II) as well as with global data sets for the water and energy cycle Time series shows that the MERRA budgets can change with some of the variations in observing systems. We will present all terms of the budgets in MERRA including the time rates of change and analysis increments (tendency due to the analysis of observations)

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses: Pacific Pan-Decadal Variability - Part 2

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. In this study, we show that one of several PDV interdecadal regime shifts occurred during the 1990s. This significant change in the Pacific basin is comparable but opposite in phase to the 1976 climate regime shift, which results persisting warming in the central-eastern Pacific, and cooling in the North and South Pacific. The 1990s PDV regime shift is consistent with observed changes in ocean biosphere and ocean circulation. A comprehensive picture of PDV as manifested in the troposphere and at the surface is described. In general, the PDV spatial patterns in different parameter fields share some similarities with the patterns associated with ENSO, but important differences exist. First, the PDV atmospheric circulation pattern is shifted westward by about 20deg and its zonal extent is limited to approx.60deg compared to approx.110deg for ENS0 pattern. The westward shift of the PDV wave train produces a different, more west-east oriented, North American teleconnection pattern. The lack of a strong PDV surface temperature (ST) signal in the western equatorial Pacific and the relatively strong ST signal in the subtropical regions are consistent with an atmospheric overturning circulation response that differs from the one associated with ENSO.

Chen, Junye↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses: Long-term Trend - Part 1

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. Except for known GW characteristics, the warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4K in the 2oth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with GW is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamic and water vapor fields. The dynamic field based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, which shows a change in the Walker Circulation, is consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in the ERA-40 reanalysis.

Chen, Junye↗

NASA NTRS2006

Skin Temperature Analysis and Bias Correction in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation System

In an initial investigation, remotely sensed surface temperature is assimilated into a coupled atmosphere/land global data assimilation system, with explicit accounting for biases in the model state. In this scheme, an incremental bias correction term is introduced in the model's surface energy budget. In its simplest form, the algorithm estimates and corrects a constant time mean bias for each gridpoint; additional benefits are attained with a refined version of the algorithm which allows for a correction of the mean diurnal cycle. The method is validated against the assimilated observations, as well as independent near-surface air temperature observations. In many regions, not accounting for the diurnal cycle of bias caused degradation of the diurnal amplitude of background model air temperature. Energy fluxes collected through the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) are used to more closely inspect the surface energy budget. In general, sensible heat flux is improved with the surface temperature assimilation, and two stations show a reduction of bias by as much as 30 Wm(sup -2) Rondonia station in Amazonia, the Bowen ratio changes direction in an improvement related to the temperature assimilation. However, at many stations the monthly latent heat flux bias is slightly increased. These results show the impact of univariate assimilation of surface temperature observations on the surface energy budget, and suggest the need for multivariate land data assimilation. The results also show the need for independent validation data, especially flux stations in varied climate regimes.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Simulation of Water Sources and Precipitation Recycling for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River Basins

An atmospheric general circulation model simulation for 1948-1997 of the water budgets for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River basins is presented. In addition to the water budget, we include passive tracers to identify the geographic sources of water for the basins, and the analysis focuses on the mechanisms contributing to precipitation recycling in each basin. While each basin s precipitation recycling has a strong dependency on evaporation during the mean annual cycle, the interannual variability of the recycling shows important relationships with the atmospheric circulation. The MacKenzie River basin has only a weak interannual dependency on evaporation, where the variations in zonal moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean can affect the basin water cycle. On the other hand, the Mississippi River basin has strong interannual dependencies on evaporation. While the precipitation recycling weakens with increased low level jet intensity, the evaporation variations exert stronger influence in providing water vapor for convective precipitation at the convective cloud base. High precipitation recycling is also found to be partly connected to warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Amazon River basin evaporation exhibits small interannual variations, so that the interannual variations of precipitation recycling are related to atmospheric moisture transport from the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. Increasing SSTs over the 50-year period are causing increased easterly transport across the basin. As moisture transport increases, the Amazon precipitation recycling decreases (without real time varying vegetation changes). In addition, precipitation recycling from a bulk diagnostic method is compared to the passive tracer method used in the analysis. While the mean values are different, the interannual variations are comparable between each method. The methods also exhibit similar relationships to the terms of the basin scale water budgets.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability of Tropical Ocean Evaporation: A Comparison of Microwave Satellite and Assimilation Results

Remote sensing methodologies for turbulent heat fluxes over oceans depend on driving bulk formulations of fluxes with measured surface winds and estimated near surface thermodynamics from microwave sensors of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) heritage. We will review recent work with a number of SSM/I-based algorithms and investigate the ability of current data sets to document global, tropical ocean-averaged evaporation changes in association with El Nino and La Nina SST changes. We show that in addition to interannual signals, latent heat flux increases over the period since late 1987 range from approx. .1 to .6 mm/ day are present; these represent trends 2 to 3 times larger than the NCEP Reanalysis. Since atmospheric storage cannot account for the difference, and since compensating evapotranspiration changes over land are highly unlikely to be this large, these evaporation estimates cannot be reconciled with ocean precipitation records such as those produced by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP. The reasons for the disagreement include less than adequate intercalibration between SSM/I sensors providing winds and water vapor for driving the algorithms, biases due to the assumption that column integrated water vapor mirrors near surface water vapor variations, and other factors as well. The reanalyses have their own problems with spin-up during assimilation, lack of constraining input data at the ocean surface, and amplitude of synoptic transients.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Numerical Simulation of the Water Cycle Change Over the 20th Century

We have used numerical models to test the impact of the change in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration on the global circulation, particularly focusing on the hydrologic cycle, namely the global cycling of water and continental recycling of water. We have run four numerical simulations using mean annual SST from the early part of the 20th century (1900-1920) and the later part (1980-2000). In addition, we vary the CO2 concentrations for these periods as well. The duration of the simulations is 15 years, and the spatial resolution is 2 degrees. We use passive tracers to study the geographical sources of water. Surface evaporation from predetermined continental and oceanic regions provides the source of water for each passive tracer. In this way, we compute the percent of precipitation of each region over the globe. This can also be used to estimate precipitation recycling. In addition, we are using the passive tracers to independently compute the global cycling of water (compared to the traditional, Q/P calculation).

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Numerical simulation of the geographical sources of water for Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) Precipitation

There are several important research questions that the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is actively pursuing, namely: What is the intensity of the water cycle and how does it change? And what is the sustainability of water resources? Much of the research to address these questions is directed at understanding the atmospheric water cycle. In this paper, we have used a new diagnostic tool, called Water Vapor Tracers (WVTs), to quantify the how much precipitation originated as continental or oceanic evaporation. This shows how long water can remain in the atmosphere and how far it can travel. The model-simulated data are analyzed over regions of interest to the GEWEX community, specifically, their Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) that are in place in the United States, Europe, Asia, Brazil, Africa and Canada. The paper presents quantitative data on how much each continent and ocean on Earth supplies water for each CSE. Furthermore, the analysis also shows the seasonal variation of the water sources. For example, in the United States, summertime precipitation is dominated by continental (land surface) sources of water, while wintertime precipitation is dominated by the Pacific Ocean sources of water. We also analyze the residence time of water in the atmosphere. The new diagnostic shows a longer residence time for water (9.2 days) than more traditional estimates (7.5 days). We emphasize that the results are based on model simulations and they depend on the model s veracity. However, there are many potential uses for the new diagnostic tool in understanding weather processes and large and small scales.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗