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Bolinger, Mark

Publications and source records attributed to Bolinger, Mark.

30 records · Page 2
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DOE OSTI2021

Big Adaptive Rotor Phase I (Final Report)

The Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) project was initiate by DOE in 2018 with the goal of identifying novel technologies that can enable large (>100m) blades for low specific power (SP) turbines. Five distinct tasks were completed to achieve this goal: 1. Assess trends, impacts, and value of low-SP turbines, 2. Wind turbine blade cost reduction roadmap study, 3. Research and Development (R&D) opportunity screening, 4. Detailed design and analysis, and 5. Low-cost carbon fiber. These tasks were completed by the national lab team consisting of Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The objective of Task 1 was to assess the historical trends of low-SP of onshore deployments, and to assess the impact and value of low-SP turbines. Analysis under this task showed that there is significant value for low-SP turbines, especially in markets where there is a higher saturation of wind energy on the grid. This has to do with the fact that low-SP turbines have increased capacity factors, and can contribute more reliable energy to the grid, even in lower wind conditions. This bodes well as higher renewable scenarios are likely in the coming years. Task 2 was a detailed analysis on the logistical challenges of deploying very large (>100m) onshore blade. This work was completed by experts at DNV-GL. The report looked at various ways to get around the current transportation constraints which are estimated to be around 75m in length. The report concluded that there are viable solutions to this issue including: segmented blades (which the industry is already pursuing), lighter than air (LTA) transportation, on-site manufacturing, and controlled bending of blades on rail. The final option was recommended for further analysis and study by DOE and the national labs because keeping a single piece blade reduces manufacturing and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs. Task 3 focused on identifying novel concepts that are capable of enabling a cost effective 5MW 206m rotor for onshore deployment. The findings from the first two tasks were considered in the analysis, in that the concepts identified must be able to overcome the transportation logistics challenges. Around 20 concepts were identified and evaluated by experts within the industry. Additionally, science and engineering challenges were identified for each concept. Based on these evaluations six concepts were deemed the most impactful and were selected for further analysis in Task 4. The concepts were: highly flexible rail transportable blades, downwind rotors, distributed aerodynamic control (DAC) devices, inflatable blade, bi-wing blade, and 4/5 bladed rotors. Task 4 conducted detailed design, optimization, and analysis on the selected BAR concepts. A modeling gaps analysis was conducted, and modeling improvements were implemented that allowed for the study and design of the novel concepts. The BAR team established a set of baseline designs by which to compare the selected designs through a technoeconomic analysis. It was found that the highly flexible rail transportable blade, the downwind rotor, and the DAC devices have the most promise to deliver the BAR targets. A Phase II for BAR has been proposed to further mature these concepts and address the open science and engineering challenges identified in Task 3. Task 5 conducted research on optimized carbon fiber materials that were used throughout the BAR Phase I project. Overall, the BAR project has identified low-SP turbines as important to continued LCOE reductions for onshore turbines. Furthermore, the project has identified viable solutions to the technical and logistical challenges to realizing these goals. The most promising technologies that were identified in Phase I of the project will be further matured and de-risked in Phase II of the BAR project.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Big Adaptive Rotor Phase I Final Report

The Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) project was initiated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2018 with the goal of identifying novel technologies that can enable large (>100 meter [m]) blades for low-specific-power wind turbines. Five distinct tasks were completed to achieve this goal: 1. Assessed the trends, impacts, and value of low-specific-power wind turbines; 2. Developed a wind turbine blade cost-reduction road map study; 3. Completed research-and-development opportunity screening; 4. Performed detailed design and analysis; and, 5. Assessed low-cost carbon fiber. These tasks were completed by the national laboratory team consisting of Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plentiful electricity turns wholesale prices negative

In 2020, average wholesale electricity prices in the United States fell to $21/MWh, their lowest level since the beginning of the 21st century. Low natural gas prices and the proliferation of low marginal cost resources like wind and solar had already established a trend toward lower wholesale prices, and this trend was exacerbated by declining electricity demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Negative real-time hourly wholesale prices occurred in about 4% of all hours and wholesale market nodes across the United States, but these were not distributed evenly. Regional clusters emerged, for example, in the Permian Basin in western Texas, and in Kansas and western Oklahoma in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), negative prices accounted for more than 25% of all hours. Negative electricity prices result either from local congestion of the transmission system leading supply to exceed demand locally or due to system-wide oversupply. Looking at the latter condition in SPP, we find that all major generator types contribute to this excess supply, because of limited ramping flexibility or self-scheduled out-of-market unit commitments. Additional monetary production incentives such as renewable energy credits or tax credits also enable negative bids; indeed, negative prices predominantly occur when demand levels are low and wind production levels are high. Frequent negative prices can inform the value of additional renewable energy investments at specific locations, the need for transmission and storage development, and opportunities load growth or adaptation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition” provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2020. Highlights of this year’s update include: A record of nearly 9.6 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2020, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 38.7 GWAC across 43 states. 89% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2020 uses single-axis tracking. Median installed project costs declined to $\$$1.4/WAC (or $\$$1.1/WDC) in 2020. Project-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$$34/MWh in 2020 ($\$$28/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have stagnated more recently. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average just above $\$$20/MWh (levelized). In 2020, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) exceeded average wholesale prices in 12 of the 17 balancing authorities analyzed (including 4 of the 7 independent system operators across the United States). Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata for more than 150 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. At the end of 2020, there were at least 460 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 160 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2021 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2020, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, and interconnection queue data.

2021↗
DOE OSTI2021

Project developer options to enhance the value of solar electricity as solar and storage penetrations increase

Increasing the penetration of photovoltaics (PV) reduces the marginal grid value of PV electricity. The declining grid value of PV with higher penetration could limit the technology's economic attractiveness and future demand. Various strategies have been proposed for preserving this value. Using a consistent framework, we analyze the net value (accounting for both cost and grid value) of more than ten strategies in the United States. Here, grid value is estimated from coincident wholesale power market prices and PV generation using observed historical prices or modeled future prices with up to 30% PV penetration. We find that established and emerging strategies designed to shift the timing of standalone PV generation at the expense of total generation—including orienting monofacial PV modules west or bifacial modules vertically—result in minor net-value benefits or penalties. Adding energy storage to such systems magnifies the net-value loss, because configurations that change the timing of PV production become redundant when the energy-shifting capabilities of storage are added. The largest net-value gains come from strategies that maximize generation (solar tracking plus oversized PV arrays) in conjunction with storage, especially at high PV penetrations. PV systems are long-lived assets. Our results suggest that efforts to promote generation-maximizing strategies today may yield increasing net-value benefits as PV and storage deployments continue to accelerate in the United States over the coming decades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Power Plants: Status of Installed and Proposed Projects [Slides]

As battery prices fall and wind and solar generation rises, power plant developers are increasingly combining wind and solar projects with on-site batteries, creating “hybrid” power plants. But hybrid or co-located plants have been part of the U.S. electricity mix for decades, with widely ranging configurations that extend beyond pairing a generator with a battery. This new summary tracks and maps existing hybrid and co-located plants across the United States while also synthesizing data from generation interconnection queues to illustrate developer interest in the next wave of plants. The scope is inclusive of co-located hybrid plants that pair two or more generators and/or that pair generation with storage at a single point of interconnection, and also full hybrids that feature co-location and co-control. The focus is on larger, 1 MW+ systems: smaller (often behind-the-meter) projects are also increasingly common, but are not included in the data synthesis. Based in part on EIA Form 860 data, there were at least 125 co-located hybrid plants (>1 MW) already operating across the United States at the end of 2019, totaling over 14 GW of aggregate capacity. Some of the most common configurations include wind+storage (13 projects, 1,290 MW wind, 184 MW storage), PV+storage (40 projects, 882 MW PV, 169 MW storage), and fossil+storage (10 projects, 2,414 MW fossil, 91 MW storage). Data from interconnection queues demonstrates the considerable commercial interest that exists in hybrid power plants, especially solar co-located with storage. By the end of 2019, there were at least 367 GW of solar plants in the nation’s queues; 102 GW (~28%) of this capacity was proposed as a hybrid, most typically pairing PV with battery storage. For wind, 225 GW of capacity sat in the queues, with 11 GW (~5%) proposed as a hybrid, again most-often pairing wind with storage. The proposed solar+storage plants are located throughout the United States, but with California and the non-ISO West being the most prominent areas of commercial interest. Proposed wind+storage and standalone storage plants also center to a degree on these regions of the country.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

2021 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies

Starting in 2015 NREL has presented the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) in an Excel workbook that contains detailed cost and performance data, both current and projected, for renewable and conventional technologies. The workbook includes a spreadsheet for each technology. This version of the workbook provides the final updates to data for the 2021 ATB. In 2019 and 2020, NREL has also provided selected data in Tableau workbooks and structured summary csv files. The data for 2015 - 2020 is located on https://data.nrel.gov. In 2021 and going forward, the data is cloud optimized and provided in the OEDI data lake. A website documents this and future data at https://atb.nrel.gov.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2021

Queued Up: Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2020

Proposed large-scale electric generation and storage projects must apply for interconnection to the bulk power system via interconnection queues. While many projects that apply for interconnection are not subsequently built, data from these queues nonetheless provide a general indicator for mid-term trends in developer interest. Berkeley Lab compiled and analyzed data from all seven ISOs/RTOs in concert with 35 non-ISO utilities, representing an estimated 85% of all U.S. electricity load. We include all "active" projects in these generation interconnection queues through the end of 2020, as well as data on "completed" and "withdrawn" projects for five of the ISOs (CAISO, ISO-NE, MISO, NYISO, PJM). We find that the total capacity active in the queues is growing year-over-year, with over 750 GW of generation and an estimated 200 GW of storage capacity as of the end of 2020. Solar (462 GW) accounts for a large – and growing – share of generator capacity in the queues. Substantial wind (209 GW) capacity is also in development, 29% of which is for offshore projects (61 GW). In total, about 680 GW of zero-carbon capacity is currently seeking transmission access, as is 74 GW of natural gas capacity. Hybrids now comprise a large – and increasing – share of proposed projects, particularly in CAISO and the non-ISO West. 159 GW of solar hybrids (primarily solar+battery) and 13 GW of wind hybrids are currently active in the queues. However, much of this proposed capacity will not ultimately be built. Among a subset of queues for which data are available, only 24% of the projects seeking connection from 2000 to 2015 have subsequently been built. Completion percentages appear to be declining, and are even lower for wind and solar than other resources. Additionally, wait times are on the rise: in four ISOs, the typical duration from connection request to commercial operation increased from ~1.9 years for projects built in 2000-2009 to ~3.5 years for those built in 2010-2020. There are growing calls for queue reform to reduce cost, lead times, and speculation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗