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Bauer, Susanne

Publications and source records attributed to Bauer, Susanne.

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Increased prevalence of essential hypertension in areas previously exposed to fallout due to nuclear weapons testing at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, Kazakhstan

Highlights: • Large territories of Kazakhstan were exposed to radiation due to nuclear tests. • Nuclear tests lead to long-term exposure of the population in the low dose range. • There is an association between environmental radiation exposure and hypertension. • Screening allows us to diagnose CVD in the irradiated people in the early stages. • Radiation health effects should be considered in health services planning. This study examines the association between environmental radiation exposure and essential hypertension in a series of investigated geographical districts adjacent to the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan. The sample consists of 2000 volunteers participants in screening examinations in three administrative districts close to the nuclear test site, which was carried out as part of the Government Programs on Environmental Health Hazard. The cross-sectional study compares prevalence ratios in a population sample with long-term exposure in the low and intermediate dose range. Age-adjusted odds ratios for hypertension were found significantly increased with higher exposure groups. After accounting for main cardiovascular risk factors into the model and stratifying by gender, the prevalence odds ratios for radiation remained significantly increased, with a significant dose-response effect observed for some but not all subgroups. The results support existing evidence of cardiovascular health effects of radiation exposure and of persisting environmental health issues that require attention in both epidemiological surveys and healthcare provision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Aerosols at the poles: an AeroCom Phase II multi-model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes.The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (sea-salt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60° N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70° S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (−0.12 W m−2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Role of Clouds, Aerosols, and Aerosol-Cloud Interaction in 20th Century Simulations with GISS ModelE2

We use the new version of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, modelE2 with 2º by 2.5º horizontal resolution and 40 vertical layers, with the model top at 0.1 hPa [Schmidt et al., 2014]. We use two different treatments of the atmospheric composition and aerosol indirect effect: (1) TCAD(I) version has fully interactive Tracers of Aerosols and Chemistry in both the troposphere and stratosphere. This model predicts total aerosol number and mass concentrations [Shindell et al., 2013]; (2) TCAM is the aerosol microphysics and chemistry model based on the quadrature methods of moments [Bauer et al., 2008]. Both TCADI and TCAM models include the first indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [Menon et al., 2010]; the TCAD model includes only the direct aerosol effect. We consider the results of the TCAD, TCADI and TCAM models coupled to "Russell ocean model" [Russell et al., 1995], E2-R. We examine the climate response for the "historical period" that include the natural and anthropogenic forcings for 1850 to 2012. The effect of clouds, their feedbacks, as well as the aerosol-cloud interactions are assessed for the transient climate change.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2015

Impact of Improvements in Volcanic Implementation on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in the GISS-E2 Model

The representation of volcanic eruptions in climate models introduces some of the largest errors when evaluating historical simulations, partly due to the crude model parameterizations. We will show preliminary results from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)-E2 model comparing traditional highly parameterized volcanic implementation (specified Aerosol Optical Depth, Effective Radius) to deploying the full aerosol microphysics module MATRIX and directly emitting SO2 allowing us the prognosically determine the chemistry and climate impact. We show a reasonable match in aerosol optical depth, effective radius, and forcing between the full aerosol implementation and reconstructions/observations of the Mt. Pinatubo 1991 eruption, with a few areas as targets for future improvement. This allows us to investigate not only the climate impact of the injection of volcanic aerosols, but also influences on regional water vapor, O3, and OH distributions. With the skill of the MATRIX volcano implementation established, we explore (1) how the height of the injection column of SO2 influence atmospheric chemistry and climate response, (2) how the initial condition of the atmosphere influences the climate and chemistry impact of the eruption with a particular focus on how ENSO and QBO and (3) how the coupled chemistry could mitigate the climate signal for much larger eruptions (i.e. the 1258 eruption, reconstructed to be approximately 10x Pinatubo). During each sensitivity experiment we assess the impact on profiles of water vapor, O3, and OH, and assess how the eruption impacts the budget of each.

aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2015

Final Report

We participated in a FASTER SCM intercomparison for which we ran our SCM for 3 years at the SGP to analyze statistics of the precipitation field (Song et al., 2013). An important feature of these simulations was the use of relaxation forcing to observed T, q, which decouples the model convection from the forcing and allows precipitation errors to emerge. Because the GISS cumulus parameterization includes a trigger that prevents convection until sufficient lifting is present, and because convection at the SGP is usually triggered by mesoscale motions that are not represented in the forcing when relaxation is applied, the duration of SCM precipitation is shorter than observed (Del Genio and Wolf, 2012) and thus its mean precipitation less than observed. However, its diurnal cycle phase is correct, and it is the only operational cumulus parameterization in the intercomparison that does not produce excessive warm season precipitation under weak large-scale forcing conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

Clouds↗
NASA NTRS2012

Application of the CALIOP Layer Product to Evaluate the Vertical Distribution of Aerosols Estimated by Global Models: AeroCom Phase I Results

The CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) layer product is used for a multimodel evaluation of the vertical distribution of aerosols. Annual and seasonal aerosol extinction profiles are analyzed over 13 sub-continental regions representative of industrial, dust, and biomass burning pollution, from CALIOP 2007-2009 observations and from AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) 2000 simulations. An extinction mean height diagnostic (Z-alpha) is defined to quantitatively assess the models' performance. It is calculated over the 0-6 km and 0-10 km altitude ranges by weighting the altitude of each 100 m altitude layer by its aerosol extinction coefficient. The mean extinction profiles derived from CALIOP layer products provide consistent regional and seasonal specificities and a low inter-annual variability. While the outputs from most models are significantly correlated with the observed Z-alpha climatologies, some do better than others, and 2 of the 12 models perform particularly well in all seasons. Over industrial and maritime regions, most models show higher Z-alpha than observed by CALIOP, whereas over the African and Chinese dust source regions, Z-alpha is underestimated during Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer. The positive model bias in Z-alpha is mainly due to an overestimate of the extinction above 6 km. Potential CALIOP and model limitations, and methodological factors that might contribute to the differences are discussed.

Aerosols and particles↗