Overview of preparation for the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN)
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Engineering topics
Barthelmie, Rebecca J.
Publications and source records attributed to Barthelmie, Rebecca J..
Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate
Cold-season windstorms represent an important, and potentially changing, geophysical hazard in the Northeastern United States. Here we employ an integrated research methodology including both a storyline approach, where three intense windstorms from the current climate are subjected to pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments, and a long-term transient simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. An ensemble of WRF simulations is built for each windstorm using different planetary boundary layer and microphysical parameterizations. The fidelity assessment suggests all ensemble members capture the windstorm evolution in contemporary climate. The configuration with highest fidelity is used in the PGW experiments performed with perturbed temperature fields, constant relative humidity, and deiced Great Lakes. These perturbation simulations indicate some evidence for a reduction of sea level pressure and increases in wind speed over and downwind of the Great Lakes and over the Atlantic Ocean plus an increase in precipitation accumulation but a reduction in snow coverage. These changes are spatially inhomogeneous in terms of magnitude and sign but are consistent with changes in potential vorticity. Alberta Clippers and Colorado Lows dominate the cyclones responsible for historical windstorms and thus are sampled in the PGW simulations. However, the transient simulation suggests an increasing role for tropical cyclones that undergo transition to extratropical cyclones. Furthermore, this reinforces the value of combining information from both PGW perturbation experiments within a storyline context and transient simulations when seeking to quantify the future risk associated with cold-season windstorms under changing climate.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Region-based convolutional neural network for wind turbine wake characterization from scanning lidars
A convolutional neural network is applied to lidar scan images from three experimental campaigns to identify and characterize wind turbine wakes. Initially developed as a proof-of-concept model and applied to a single data set in complex terrain, the model is now improved and generalized and applied to two other unique lidar data sets, one located near an escarpment and one located offshore. The model, initially developed using lidar scans collected in predominantly westerly flow, exhibits sensitivity to wind flow direction. The model is thus successfully generalized through implementing a standard rotation process to scan images before input into the convolutional neural network to ensure the flow is westerly. The sample size of lidar scans used to train the model is increased, and along with the generalization process, these changes to the model are shown to enhance accuracy and robustness when characterizing dissipating and asymmetric wakes. Applied to the offshore data set in which nearly 20 wind turbine wakes are included per scan, the improved model exhibits a 95% success rate in characterizing wakes and a 74% success rate in characterizing dissipating wake fragments. The improved model is shown to generalize well to the two new data sets, although an increase in wake characterization accuracy is offset by an increase in model sensitivity and false positive wake identifications.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Wind power production from very large offshore wind farms
In this work, we provide the first quantitative assessment of power production and wake generation from offshore wind energy lease areas along the U.S. east coast. Deploying 15-MW wind turbines, with spacing equal to the European average, yields electricity production of 116 TWh/year or 3% of current national supply. However, power production is reduced by one-third due to wakes caused by upwind wind turbines and wind farms. Under some flow conditions whole wind-farm wakes can extend up to 90 km downwind of the largest lease areas, and the frequency-weighted average area with a 5% velocity deficit is 2.6 times the footprint of the lease areas. Simulations including maritime corridors demonstrate reduction in the wake effects leading to power-efficiency gains and may offer contingent benefits. First-order scaling rules are developed that describe how “wake shadows” from large offshore wind farms scale with prevailing meteorology and wind turbine installed densities.
15 MW↗
Extreme Wind and Waves in U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas
The Outer Continental Shelf along the U.S. east coast exhibits abundant wind resources and is now a geographic focus for offshore wind deployments. This analysis derives and presents expected extreme wind and wave conditions for the sixteen lease areas that are currently being developed. Using the homogeneous ERA5 reanalysis dataset it is shown that the fifty-year return period wind speed (U50) at 100 m a.s.l. in the lease areas ranges from 29.2 to 39.7 ms -1 . After applying corrections to account for spectral smoothing and averaging period, the associated pseudo-point U50 estimates are 34 to 46 ms -1 . The derived uncertainty in U50 estimates due to different distributional fitting is smaller than the uncertainty associated with under-sampling of the interannual variability in annual maximum wind speeds. It is shown that, in the northern lease areas, annual maximum wind speeds are generally associated with intense extratropical cyclones rather than cyclones of tropical origin. Extreme wave statistics are also presented and indicate that the 50-year return period maximum wave height may substantially exceed 15 m. From this analysis, there is evidence that annual maximum wind speeds and waves frequently derive from the same cyclone source and often occur within a 6 h time interval.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Climate change impacts on wind power generation
Wind energy is a virtually carbon-free and pollution-free electricity source, with global wind resources greatly exceeding electricity demand. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of >20% from 2000 to 2019 and is projected to increase by a further 50% by the end of 2023. Here, in this Review, we describe the factors that dictate the wind resource magnitude and variability and illustrate the tools and techniques that are being used to make projections of wind resources and wind turbine operating conditions. Natural variability due to the action of internal climate modes appears to dominate over global-warming-induced non-stationarity over most areas with large wind energy installations or potential. However, there is evidence for increased wind energy resources by the end of the current century in northern Europe and the US Southern Great Plains. New technology trends are changing the sensitivity of wind energy to global climate non-stationarity and, thus, present new challenges and opportunities for innovative research. The evolution of climate modelling to increasingly address mesoscale processes is providing improved projections of both wind resources and wind turbine operating conditions, and will contribute to continued reductions in the levelized cost of energy from wind power generation.
17 WIND ENERGY↗