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Barnes, Elizabeth

Publications and source records attributed to Barnes, Elizabeth.

ClimSim: A large multi-scale dataset for hybrid physics-ML climate emulation

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore’s Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to MLexperts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. Wepresent ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator’s macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res2) and code(https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim)arereleasedopenlytosupport the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

artificial intelligence, machine learning↗

Advancing the Predictability of Water Cycle Phenomena via the Application of AI to Model Ensemble Simulations and Observations

AI has the power to identify new pathways to extended predictability of the water cycle via its application to model ensembles together with accompanying observations. We discuss both scientific and technological aspects of this challenge, and address the parts of the MODEX approach involving “Model simulations, evaluation, analysis, and benchmarking” and “Identification of key knowledge gaps”. The widespread incorporation of AI into model analysis will significantly advance Earth system predictability and our predictive capabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning to extend and understand the sources and limits of water cycle predictability on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales in the Earth system

This white paper provides initial insight on how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), including interpretability and explainable AI (XAI) methods, can be leveraged to glean insight from complex data for a paradigm-changing improvement in Earth system predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) and seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) timescales. The application of AI to extend and improve predictability, in combination with causal inference and uncertainty quantification, could lead to a transformative understanding of the integrative water cycle and associated extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗