An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System Based on Near Real Time Magnetograms
No abstract available
Flares CMEs Forecasting↗
Engineering topics
Barghouty, Nasser
Publications and source records attributed to Barghouty, Nasser.
An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System Based on Magnetogram in Near Real Time
No abstract available
Forecasting Magnetogram↗
An All-clear Space Weather Forecasting System Based on Magnetogram in near Real Time
No abstract available
Forecasting Magnetogram↗
Radiation Transport and Space-Radiation Related Efforts at NASA's Marshall Space Center
No abstract available
Space radiation radiation↗
Modeling the Radiation Quality Factor as a Linear 'Time'-Dependent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process
No abstract available
Modeling the Quality of Radiation↗
Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output
Barghouty, Nasser↗
How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting
Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.
Falconer, David↗
The Human Exploration Initative: Space Radiation Measurement Needs
NASA's Space Exploration Initiative envisions human exploration missions to the Moon and Mars. To accomplish these missions safely, they must be designed and planned to limit the acute and long term health risks posed by ionizing radiation. This requires knowledge of the relevant components of the ionizing radiation environment in deep space, on the Moon and on Mars. In this talk we will identify what must be known about the ionizing radiation environment, discuss what knowledge already exists and suggest what new measurements may be needed before manned missions can be conducted safely.
Adams, Jim↗