Engineering topics

Bürgmann, Roland

Publications and source records attributed to Bürgmann, Roland.

At least 19 records

DOE OSTI2024

A weak subducting slab at intermediate depths below northeast Japan

Knowledge of the state of stress in subducting slabs is essential for understanding their mechanical behavior and the physical processes that generate earthquakes. Here, we develop a framework which uses a high-resolution focal mechanism catalog to determine the change in the position of the neutral plane before and after the M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake to determine that the deviatoric stress within the slab at intermediate depths must be very low (~1 MPa). We show that by combining the static stress calculated from coseismic slip distributions with the stress orientations before and after the mainshock, we can determine the full deviatoric stress tensor within the subducting slab at intermediate depths. These results preclude earthquake source mechanisms that require large background driving stresses, favoring a mechanically weak subducting slab, thus providing quantitative constraints on the physical processes that generate intermediate-depth earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Seismicity in the Lake Biwa Region of Central Japan Moderately Modulated by Lake Water Storage Changes

Seasonal seismicity in Japan has been observed and attributed to variations induced by hydrological loading, as well as atmospheric and pore-fluid pressure. We examine the seasonal variations of crustal (<15 km depth) and low magnitude (M < 4.5) earthquakes in central Japan near the Biwako-Seigan Fault Zone (BSFZ), and analyze their correlation with the annual hydrological cycle of nearby Lake Biwa, the largest freshwater lake in Japan. The 2002–2018 lake water storage is estimated using water-level gauge and satellite altimetry data. Regional surface mass loading from soil moisture and snow predicted by the Global Land Data Assimilation System is used to augment the lake mass variation. We compute the stress and stressing-rate changes induced by the surface mass loading from lake storage, snow, and soil moisture at seismogenic depth (10 km) along the BSFZ using a finite element model incorporating a 3D Earth structure. The results show that seasonal surface mass loading generates 1–5 kPa peak-to-peak Coulomb stress change and 2.5–15 kPa/year stressing-rate variations on the fault segments along the BSFZ. Two of the four fault segments present significant correlation between local seismicity rate and loading-derived stress and/or stressing rate changes. Among the hydrological load components, lake water, snow, and soil moisture exhibit different annual phases, and the lake water storage dominates the total annual stress changes. Our analysis indicates that seasonal surface hydrological loads, especially lake water variations, modulate the seismicity rate along the BSFZ in central Japan.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Periodicity Analysis of Earthquake Occurrence and Hypocenter Depth Near Parkfield, California, 1994–2002 Versus 2006–2014

In central California, periodic earthquake occurrence suggests a relationship with annual hydrological, atmospheric, thermal, and tidal loadings. Here, in catalogs of declustered earthquakes within 100 km from Parkfield, CA, we study a semiannual periodicity for the monthly number of ≤7.2-km-deep earthquakes and the monthly median hypocenter depth over 1994–2002 and 2006–2014. Peak-trough months in fitted periodic components differ between time spans and event populations. Deeper earthquakes present no semiannual and a weak annual periodicity. Although modeled pore pressure shows a Spring peak, when added to the elastic Coulomb stress from surface hydrospheric loads, it fails to predict a 6-month periodicity for 2006–2014. In 1994–2002, the pore-pressure amplitude appears to be of same order as the elastic stress and may have had a stronger effect. In 2006–2014, we did not find load model parameters explaining the observed pattern or apparent changes following the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors

The topic of earthquake prediction has a long history, littered with failed attempts. Part of the challenge is that possible precursory signals are usually reported after the event, and the systematic relationships between potential precursors and main events, should they exist, are unclear. Furthermore, several recent studies have shown the potential of new approaches to simultaneously detect earthquake foreshocks and slow-slip phenomena through ground deformation, seismic, and gravitational transients—weeks to months before large subduction zone earthquakes. The entire international community of earthquake researchers should be engaged in deploying instrumentation, sharing data in real time, and improving physical models to resolve the extent to which slow slip events and earthquake swarms enhance the likelihood (or not) for later, larger earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geodetic Measurements of Slow-Slip Events Southeast of Parkfield, CA

Tremor and low-frequency earthquakes are presumed to be indicative of surrounding slow, aseismic slip that is often below geodetic detection thresholds. This study uses data from borehole seismometers and long-baseline laser strainmeters to observe both the seismic and geodetic signatures of episodic tremor and slip on the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, CA. We note the observed occurrence rates of both the tremors and co-located families of low-frequency earthquakes are not steady but instead exhibit quasiperiodic bursts of increased activity.We show that these periods of elevated seismic activity correlate with statistically significant stacked strain signals consisting of 44 slow-slip events. Modeled individual slow-slip events and their total summed moment, which are constrained by seismic signals and stacked strain, respectively, indicate that the individual moment magnitudes of these events range from $M_w$ 4.6–5.2.We find that the measured geodetic signal likely precedes the seismic signal by several hours, consistent with the aseismic slip preceding and driving the observed seismic tremor activity.We confirm that strike-slip faults, in addition to subduction zones, are capable of producing episodic tremor and slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Seasonal modulation of deep slow-slip and earthquakes on the Main Himalayan Thrust

The interaction between seasonally-induced non-tectonic and tectonic deformation along the Himalayan plate boundary remains debated. Here, we propose that tectonic deformation along this plate boundary can be significantly influenced by the deformation induced by the non-tectonic hydrological loading cycles. We explore seasonal mass oscillations by continental water storage in Southeast Asia and Himalayan arc region using continuous Global Positioning System measurements and satellite data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We suggest that the substantially higher transient displacements above the base of the seismogenic zone indicate a role of changes in aseismic slip rate on the deep megathrust that may be controlled by seasonal hydrological loading. We invoke modulation of aseismic slip on the megathrust down-dip of the seismogenic zone due to a fault resonance process induced by the seasonal stress changes. This process modulates mid-crustal ramp associated micro-seismicity and influences the timing of Central Himalayan earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Tracking the weight of Hurricane Harvey’s stormwater using GPS data

On 26 August 2017, Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf Coast as a category four cyclone depositing ~95 km 3 of water, making it the wettest cyclone in U.S. history. Water left in Harvey’s wake should cause elastic loading and subsidence of Earth’s crust, and uplift as it drains into the ocean and evaporates. To track daily changes of transient water storage, we use Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, finding a clear migration of subsidence (up to 21 mm) and horizontal motion (up to 4 mm) across the Gulf Coast, followed by gradual uplift over a 5-week period. Inversion of these data shows that a third of Harvey’s total stormwater was captured on land (25.7 ± 3.0 km 3 ), indicating that the rest drained rapidly into the ocean at a rate of 8.2 km 3 /day, with the remaining stored water gradually lost over the following 5 weeks at ~1 km 3 /day, primarily by evapotranspiration. These results indicate that GPS networks can remotely track the spatial extent and daily evolution of terrestrial water storage following transient, extreme precipitation events, with implications for improving operational flood forecasts and understanding the response of drainage systems to large influxes of water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Interseismic Ground Deformation and Fault Slip Rates in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area From Two Decades of Space Geodetic Data

The detailed spatial variations of strain accumulation and creep on major faults in the northern San Francisco Bay Area (North Bay), which are important for seismic potential and evaluation of natural hazards, remain poorly understood. We combine interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from the ERS-1/2 and Envisat satellites between 1992 and 2010 with continuous and campaign GPS data to obtain a high spatial and temporal coverage of ground deformation of the North Bay. The SAR data from both ascending and descending orbits are combined to separate horizontal and vertical components of the deformation. We jointly invert the horizontal component of the mean velocities derived from these data to infer the deep strike-slip rates on major locked faults. We use the estimated deep rates to simulate the long-wavelength deformation due to interseismic elastic strain accumulation along these locked faults. After removing the long-wavelength signal from the InSAR horizontal mean velocity field, we estimate fault-parallel surface creep rates of up to 2 mm/year along the central section of the Rodgers Creek fault and surface creep rates ranging between 2 and 4 mm/year along the Concord fault. No surface creep is geodetically resolved along the West Napa and Green Valley fault zones. We identified characteristically repeating earthquakes on the Rodgers Creek fault, the West Napa fault, the Green Valley fault, and the Concord fault. Finally, nontectonic deformation in the Geysers geothermal field and in Late Cenozoic basins (Rohnert Park and Sonoma basins) are also observed, likely due to hydrological and sediment-compaction processes, respectively.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

The geophysics, geology and mechanics of slow fault slip

We report that modern geodetic and seismologic observations describe the behavior of fault slip over a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. Slip at sub-seismogenic speeds is evident from top to bottom of lithospheric faults and plays an important role throughout the earthquake cycle. Where earthquakes and tremor accompany slow slip, they help illuminate the spatiotemporal evolution of fault slip. Geophysical subsurface imaging and geologic field studies provide information about suitable environments of slow slip. In particular, exhumed fault and shear zones from various depths reveal the importance of multiple deformation processes and fault-zone structures. Most geologic examples feature frictionally weak and velocity-strengthening materials, well-developed mineral fabrics, and abundant veining indicative of near-lithostatic fluid pressure. To produce transient slow slip events and tremor, in addition to the presence of high-pressure fluids a heterogeneous fault-zone structure, composition, and/or metamorphic assemblage may be needed. Laboratory and computational models suggest that velocity-weakening slip patches smaller than a critical dimension needed for earthquake nucleation will also fail in slow slip events. Changes in fluid pressure or slip rate can cause a fault to transition between stable and unstable fault slip behavior. Lastly, future interdisciplinary investigations of slow fault slip, directly integrating geophysical, geological and modeling investigations, will further improve our understanding of the dynamics of slow slip and aid in providing more accurate earthquake hazard characterizations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

The rise, collapse, and compaction of Mt. Mantap from the 3 September 2017 North Korean nuclear test

Surveillance of clandestine nuclear tests relies on a global seismic network, but the potential of spaceborne monitoring has been underexploited. Here we used satellite radar imagery to determine the complete surface displacement field of up to 3.5 meters of divergent horizontal motion with 0.5 meters of subsidence associated with North Korea’s largest underground nuclear test. Combining insight from geodetic and seismological remote sensing, we found that the aftermath of the initial explosive deformation involved subsidence associated with subsurface collapse and aseismic compaction of the damaged rocks of the test site. The explosive yield from the nuclear detonation with best-fitting source parameters for 450-meter depth was 191 kilotonnes of TNT equivalent. Finally, our results demonstrate the capability of spaceborne remote sensing to help characterize large underground nuclear tests.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2018

Kinematics of the 2015 San Ramon, California earthquake swarm: Implications for fault zone structure and driving mechanisms

Earthquake swarms represent a sudden increase in seismicity that may indicate a heterogeneous fault-zone, the involvement of crustal fluids and/or slow fault slip. Swarms sometimes precede major earthquake ruptures. An earthquake swarm occurred in October 2015 near San Ramon, California in an extensional right step-over region between the northern Calaveras Fault and the Concord–Mt. Diablo fault zone, which has hosted ten major swarms since 1970. The 2015 San Ramon swarm is examined here from 11 October through 18 November using template matching analysis. The relocated seismicity catalog contains ~4000 events with magnitudes between -0.2 < M d < 3.6. The swarm illuminated three sub-parallel, southwest striking and northwest dipping fault segments of km-scale dimension and thickness of up to 200 m. The segments contain coexisting populations of different focal-mechanisms, suggesting a complex fault zone structure with several sets of en échelon fault orientations. The migration of events along the three planar structures indicates a complex fluid and faulting interaction processes. We searched for correlations between seismic activity and tidal stresses and found some suggestive features, but nothing that we can be confident is statistically significant.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km 2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km 2 considering sea level rise alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Relating the long-term and short-term vertical deformation across a transect of the forearc in the central Mexican subduction zone

Earthquake-cycle deformation, which includes earthquake ruptures, interseismic strain, and transient slow slip events, spans spatial scales ranging from fractions of a meter to thousands of kilometers. Similarly, temporal scales range from seconds during an earthquake rupture to thousands of years of strain accumulation between earthquakes. We discuss results regarding the vertical crustal deformation associated with both slow and rapid crustal deformation across a transect of the central Mexican subduction forearc in the Guerrero seismic gap, where the Cocos plate underthrusts the North America plate. This sector of the subduction zone is characterized by a flat-slab geometry with zones of sharp bending-unbending of the slab, irregularly distributed seismicity, and exceptionally large slow slip events. We used the river network, topography, geomorphic features, and morphometry on a transect across the forearc to assess Quaternary crustal deformation. The Papagayo drainage network shows that the forearc has been uplifted since the late Cenozoic (~25 Ma), and that rates of uplift increased since the beginning of the Holocene. Uplift is not homogeneous but shows a trend of increase away from the coast. This vertical deformation is strongly influenced by subduction processes. Thus, the Papagayo River network is strongly controlled by Holocene earthquake cycle processes. This is particularly true for the southern section of the drainage basin, where E-W-striking left-lateral strike-slip faults with a vertical component offset the course of the main river. These faults are accommodating part of the oblique plate convergence at the Mexican subduction zone. We measured the height of a series of terraces and dated quartz extracts by optically stimulated luminescence, and we calculated long-term rates of uplift ranging from 0.5 to 4.9 mm/yr. We discuss associations of forearc topography, faults, and long-term crustal deformation with the Cocos slab geometry, distribution of slow slip events, and earthquake-cycle deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Aseismic Transform Fault Slip at the Mendocino Triple Junction From Characteristically Repeating Earthquakes

We report that the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), at the northern terminus of the San Andreas Fault system, is an actively deforming plate boundary region with poorly constrained estimates of seismic coupling on most offshore fault surfaces. Characteristically repeating earthquakes provide spatial and temporal descriptions of aseismic creep at the MTJ, including on the oceanic transform Mendocino Fault Zone (MFZ) as it subducts beneath North America. Using a dataset of earthquakes from 2008 to 2017, we find that the easternmost segment of the MFZ displays creep during this period at about 65% of the long-term slip rate. We also find creep at slower rates on the shallower strike-slip interface between the Pacific plate and the North American accretionary wedge, as well as on a fault that accommodates Gorda subplate internal deformation. Finally, after a nearby M5.7 earthquake in 2015, we observe a possible decrease in aseismic slip on the near-shore MFZ that lasts from 2015 to at least early 2017.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Inferred rheological structure and mantle conditions from postseismic deformation following the 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake

The 2010M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake provides a unique target of postseismic study as deformation extends across several distinct geological provinces, including the cold Mesozoic arc crust of the Peninsular Ranges and newly formed, hot, extending lithosphere within the Salton Trough. We use five years of global positioning system measurements to invert for afterslip and constrain a 3-D finite-element model that simulates viscoelastic relaxation. We find that afterslip cannot readily explain far-field displacements (more than 50 km from the epicentre). These displacements are best explained by viscoelastic relaxation of a horizontally and vertically heterogeneous lower crust and upper mantle. Lower viscosities beneath the Salton Trough compared to the Peninsular Ranges and other surrounding regions are consistent with inferred differences in the respective geotherms. Our inferred viscosity structure suggests that the depth of the Lithosphere/Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) is ~65 km below the Peninsular Ranges and ~32 km beneath the Salton Trough. These depths are shallower than the corresponding seismic LAB. This suggests that the onset of partial melting in peridotite may control the depth to the base of the mechanical lithosphere. In contrast, the seismic LAB may correspond to an increase in the partial melt percentage associated with the change from a conductive to an adiabatic geotherm.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Constraints on Friction, Dilatancy, Diffusivity, and Effective Stress From Low-Frequency Earthquake Rates on the Deep San Andreas Fault

Families of recurring low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) within nonvolcanic tremor on the San Andreas Fault in central California are sensitive to tidal stresses. LFEs occur at all levels of the tides, are strongly correlated and in phase with the ~200 Pa shear stresses, and weakly and not systematically correlated with the ~2 kPa tidal normal stresses. Here, we assume that LFEs are small sources that repeatedly fail during shear within a much larger scale, aseismically slipping fault zone and consider two different models of the fault slip: (1) modulation of the fault slip rate by the tidal stresses or (2) episodic slip, triggered by the tides. LFEs are strongly clustered with duration much shorter than the semidiurnal tide; they cannot be significantly modulated on that time scale. The recurrence times of clusters, however, are many times longer than the semidiurnal, leading to an appearance of tidal triggering. In this context we examine the predictions of laboratory-observed triggered frictional (dilatant) fault slip. The undrained end-member model produces no sensitivity to the tidal normal stress, and slip onsets are in phase with the tidal shear stress. The tidal correlation constrains the diffusivity to be less than ~1 × 10 -6 /s and the product of the friction and dilatancy coefficients to be at most 5 × 10 -7 , orders of magnitude smaller than observed at room temperature. In the absence of dilatancy the effective normal stress at failure would be about ~55 kPa. Finally, for this model the observations require intrinsic weakness, low dilatancy, and lithostatic pore fluid.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Stress Models of the Annual Hydrospheric, Atmospheric, Thermal, and Tidal Loading Cycles on California Faults: Perturbation of Background Stress and Changes in Seismicity

Stresses in the lithosphere arise from multiple natural loading sources that include both surface and body forces. The largest surface loads include near-surface water storage, snow and ice, atmosphere pressure, ocean loading, and temperature changes. The solid Earth also deforms from celestial body interactions and variations in Earth's rotation. We model the seasonal stress changes in California from 2006 through 2014 for seven different loading sources with annual periods to produce an aggregate stressing history for faults in the study area. Our modeling shows that the annual water loading, atmosphere, temperature, and Earth pole tides are the largest loading sources and should each be evaluated to fully describe seasonal stress changes. In California we find that the hydrological loads are the largest source of seasonal stresses. We explore the seasonal stresses with respect to the background principal stress orientation constrained with regional focal mechanisms and analyze the modulation of seismicity. Our results do not suggest a resolvable seasonal variation for the ambient stress orientation in the shallow crust. When projecting the seasonal stresses into the background stress orientation we find that the timing of microseismicity modestly increases from an ~8 kPa seasonal mean-normal-stress perturbation. The results suggest that faults in California are optimally oriented with the background stress field and respond to subsurface pressure changes, possibly due to processes we have not considered in this study. At any time a population of faults are near failure as evident from earthquakes triggered by these slight seasonal stress perturbations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Preface

The 25 April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake of magnitude 7.8 devastated parts of Nepal and northern India with a death toll of more than 8000. Here, several aftershocks of moderate size were recorded, including one of M7.2 on 12 May 2015 on the eastern periphery of the main rupture.

Purnachandra Rao, N.↗