Validation of Bayesian modeling approach of uncertainty in organ doses using post-mortem measurements
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Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Engineering topics
Avtandilashvili, Maia
Publications and source records attributed to Avtandilashvili, Maia.
Modeling Plutonium Decorporation in a Female Nuclear Worker Treated with Ca-DTPA after Inhalation Intake
The present work models plutonium (Pu) biokinetics in a female former nuclear worker. Her bioassay measurements are available at the US Transuranium and Uranium Registries. The worker was internally exposed to a plutonium-americium mixture via acute inhalation at a nuclear weapons facility. She was medically treated with injections of 1 g Ca-DTPA on days 0, 5, and 14 after the intake. Between days 0 and 20, fecal and urine samples were collected and analyzed for 239 Pu and 241 Am. Subsequently, she was followed up for bioassay monitoring over 14 y, with additional post-treatment urine samples collected and analyzed for 239 Pu. The uniqueness of this dataset is due to the availability of: (1) both early and long-term bioassay data from a female with plutonium intake; (2) data on chelation therapy for a female; and (3) fecal measurement results. Chelation therapy with Ca- and/or Zn-salts of DTPA is known to aid in reducing the internal radiation dose by enhancing the excretion of plutonium and americium from the body. Such enhancement affects plutonium biokinetics in the human body, posing a challenge to the internal dose assessment. The current radiation dose assessment practice is to exclude the data affected by Ca-DTPA from the analysis. The present analysis is the first to explicitly model the chelation-affected bioassay data in a female by using a newly developed chelation model. Thus, the bioassay data collected during and after the Ca-DTPA administrations were used for biokinetic modeling and dose assessment. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used to investigate model parameter uncertainty, based on the bioassay data and assumed prior probability distributions. A χ 2 /nData (number of data points) ≈ 1 was observed in this study, which indicates self-consistency of the data with the model. Results of this study show that the worker’s 239 Pu intake was 12 Bq, with a committed effective dose to the whole-body of 1.2 mSv and a committed equivalent dose to the bone surfaces, liver, and lungs of 37.8, 9.1, and 0.8 mSv, respectively. This study also discusses the worker’s dose reduction due to chelation treatment.
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
Latent bone modelling for estimation of plutonium concentration in skeleton of former nuclear workers
Abstract The skeleton is a major plutonium retention site in the human body. Estimation of the total plutonium activity in the skeleton is a challenging problem. For most tissue donors at the United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries, a limited number of bone samples is available. The skeleton activity is calculated using plutonium activity concentration (Cskel) and skeleton weight. In this study, latent bone modelling was used to estimate Cskel from the limited number of analysed bone samples. Data from 13 non-osteoporotic whole-body donors were used to develop latent bone model (LBM) to estimate Cskel for seven cases with four to eight analysed bone samples. LBM predictions were compared to Cskel estimated using an arithmetic mean in terms of accuracy and precision. For the studied cases, LBM offered a significant reduction of uncertainty of Cskel estimate.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Methods of improving brain dose estimates for internally deposited radionuclides *
The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) convened Scientific Committee 6–12 (SC 6–12) to examine methods for improving dose estimates for brain tissue for internally deposited radionuclides, with emphasis on alpha emitters. This Memorandum summarises the main findings of SC 6–12 described in the recently published NCRP Commentary No. 31, ‘Development of Kinetic and Anatomical Models for Brain Dosimetry for Internally Deposited Radionuclides’. The Commentary examines the extent to which dose estimates for the brain could be improved through increased realism in the biokinetic and dosimetric models currently used in radiation protection and epidemiology. A limitation of most of the current element-specific systemic biokinetic models is the absence of brain as an explicitly identified source region with its unique rate(s) of exchange of the element with blood. The brain is usually included in a large source region called Other that contains all tissues not considered major repositories for the element. In effect, all tissues in Other are assigned a common set of exchange rates with blood. A limitation of current dosimetric models for internal emitters is that activity in the brain is treated as a well-mixed pool, although more sophisticated models allowing consideration of different activity concentrations in different regions of the brain have been proposed. Here case studies for 18 internal emitters indicate that brain dose estimates using current dosimetric models may change substantially (by a factor of 5 or more), or may change only modestly, by addition of a sub-model of the brain in the biokinetic model, with transfer rates based on results of published biokinetic studies and autopsy data for the element of interest. As a starting place for improving brain dose estimates, development of biokinetic models with explicit sub-models of the brain (when sufficient biokinetic data are available) is underway for radionuclides frequently encountered in radiation epidemiology. A longer-term goal is development of coordinated biokinetic and dosimetric models that address the distribution of major radioelements among radiosensitive brain tissues.
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
Four-decade follow-up of a plutonium-contaminated puncture wound treated with Ca-DTPA
Contaminated wounds are a common route of internal deposition of radionuclides for nuclear and radiation workers. They may result in significant doses to radiosensitive organs and tissues in an exposed individual's body. The United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries' whole-body donor (Case 0303) accidentally punctured his finger on equipment contaminated with plutonium nitrate. The wound was surgically excised and medically treated with intravenous injections of Ca-DTPA. A total of 16 g Ca-DTPA was administered in 18 treatments during the 2 months following the accident. Ninety-three urine samples were collected and analysed over 14 years following the accident. An estimated 239 Pu activity of 73.7 Bq was excreted during Ca-DTPA treatment. Post-mortem radiochemical analysis of autopsy tissues indicated that 40 years post-accident 21.6 ± 0.2 Bq of 239 Pu was retained in the skeleton, 12.2 ± 0.3 Bq in the liver, and 3.7 ± 0.1 Bq in other soft tissues; 1.35 ± 0.02 Bq of 239 Pu was measured in tissue samples from the wound site. To estimate the plutonium intake, late urine measurements, which were unaffected by chelation, and post-mortem radiochemical analysis results were evaluated using the IMBA Professional Plus software. The application of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements wound model with an assumption of intake material as a predominantly strongly retained soluble plutonium compound with a small insoluble fraction adequately described the data (p = 0.46). The effective intake was estimated to be 50.2 Bq of plutonium nitrate and 1.5 Bq of the fragment. Here, the prompt medical intervention with contaminated tissue excision and subsequent Ca-DTPA decorporation therapy reduced 239 Pu activity available for uptake and long-term retention in this individual's systemic organs by a factor of 38.
239Pu↗
Plutonium in Manhattan Project workers: Using autopsy data to evaluate organ content and dose estimates based on urine bioassay with implications for radiation epidemiology
Purpose Radiation dose estimates in epidemiology typically rely on intake predictions based on urine bioassay measurements. The purpose of this article is to compare the conventional dosimetric estimates for radiation epidemiology with the estimates based on additional post-mortem tissue radiochemical analysis results. Methods The comparison was performed on a unique group of 11 former Manhattan Project nuclear workers, who worked with plutonium in the 1940s, and voluntarily donated their bodies to the United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries. Results Post-mortem organ activities were predicted using different sets of urine data and compared to measured activities. Use of urinalysis data collected during the exposure periods overestimated the systemic (liver+skeleton) deposition of 239 Pu by 155±134%, while the average bias from using post-exposure urinalyses was –4±50%. Committed effective doses estimated using early urine data differed from the best estimate by, on average, 196±193%; inclusion of follow-up urine measurements in analyses decreased the mean bias to 0.6±36.3%. Cumulative absorbed doses for the liver, red marrow, bone surface, and brain were calculated for the actual commitment period. Conclusion On average, post-exposure urine bioassay results were in good agreement with post-mortem tissue analyses and were more reliable than results of urine bioassays collected during the exposure.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Radium Dial Workers: Back to the Future
This report reviews the history of the radium dial workers in the United States, summarizes the scientific progress made since the last evaluation in the early 1990s, and discusses current progress in updating the epidemiologic cohort and applying new dosimetric models for radiation risk assessment. The discoveries of radiation and radioactivity led quickly to medical and commercial applications at the turn of the 20th century, including the development of radioluminescent paint, made by combining radium with phosphorescent material and adhesive. Workers involved with the painting of dials and instruments included painters, handlers, ancillary workers, and chemists who fabricated the paint. Dial painters were primarily women and, prior to the mid to late 1920s, would use their lips to give the brush a fine point, resulting in high intakes of radium. The tragic experience of the dial painters had a significant impact on industrial safety standards, including protection measures taken during the Manhattan Project. The dial workers study has formed the basis for radiation protection standards for intakes of radionuclides by workers and the public. The mortality experience of 3,276 radium dial painters and handlers employed between 1913-1949 is being determined through 2019. The last epidemiologic follow-up was 30 years ago when most of these workers were still alive. Nearly 65% were born before 1920, 37.5% were teenagers when first hired, and nearly 50% were hired before 1930 when the habit of placing brushes in mouths essentially stopped. Comprehensive dose reconstruction techniques are being applied to estimate organ doses for each worker related to the intake of 226Ra, 228Ra, and associated photon exposures. Time dependent dose-response analyses will estimate lifetime risks for specific causes of death. The study of radium dial workers is part of the Million Person Study of low-dose health effects that is designed to evaluate radiation risks among healthy American workers and veterans. Despite being one of the most important and influential radiation effects studies ever conducted, shifting programmatic responsibilities and declining funding led to the termination of the radium program of studies in the early 1990s. Renewed interest and opportunity have arisen. With scientific progress made in dosimetric methodology and models, the ability to perform a study over the entire life span, and the potential applicability to other scenarios such as medicine, environmental contamination and space exploration, the radium dial workers have once again come to the forefront.
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