Engineering topics

Arnold, James E.

Publications and source records attributed to Arnold, James E..

At least 37 records · Page 2

NASA NTRS2002

Extreme Lightning Flash Rates as an Early Indicator of Severe Storms

Extreme lightning flash rates are proving to be an early indicator of intensifying storms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. Most of this lightning is in the cloud, where the naked eye can not see it. Recent global observations of thunderstorms from space indicate that giant electrical storms (supercells and convective complexes) with flash rates on the order of 1 flash per second are most common over the land masses of the America sub-tropics and equatorial Congo Basin. Within the United States, the average tornado warning lead time on a national basis is about 11 min. The real-time observation of extreme flash rates and the rapid increase in the in-cloud flash rate, signalling the intensification of the storm updraft, may provide as much as a 50% increase in severe storm warning lead time.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Inter-Comparison of CHARM Data and WSR-88D Storm Integrated Rainfall

A localized precipitation network has been established over a 4000 sq km region of northern Alabama in support of local weather and climate research at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) in Huntsville. This Cooperative Huntsville-Area Rainfall Measurement (CHARM) network is comprised of over 80 volunteers who manually take daily rainfall measurements from 85 sites. The network also incorporates 20 automated gauges that report data at 1-5 minute intervals on a 24 h a day basis. The average spacing of the gauges in the network is about 6 kin, however coverage in some regions benefit from gauges every 1-2 km. The 24 h rainfall totals from the CHARM network have been used to validate Stage III rainfall estimates of daily and storm totals derived from the WSR-88D radars that cover northern Alabama. The Stage III rainfall product is produced by the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) in support of their daily forecast operations. The intercomparisons between the local rain gauge and the radar estimates have been useful to understand the accuracy and utility of the Stage III data. Recently, the Stage III and CHARM rainfall measurements have been combined to produce an hourly rainfall dataset at each CHARM observation site. The procedure matches each CHARM site with a time sequence of Stage III radar estimates of precipitation. Hourly stage III rainfall estimates were used to partition the rain gauge values to the time interval over which they occurred. The new hourly rain gauge dataset is validated at selected points where 1-5 minute rainfall measurements have been made. This procedure greatly enhances the utility of the CHARM data for local weather and hydrologic modeling studies. The conference paper will present highlights of the Stage III intercomparison and some examples of the combined radar / rain gauge product demonstrating its accuracy and utility in deriving an hourly rainfall product from the 24 h CHARM totals.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Lightning Channel Retrieval Algorithm for the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

A new multi-station VHF time-of-arrival (TOA) antenna network is, at the time of this writing, coming on-line in Northern Alabama. The network, called the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), employs GPS timing and detects VHF radiation from discrete segments (effectively point emitters) that comprise the channel of lightning strokes within cloud and ground flashes. The network will support on-going ground validation activities of the low Earth orbiting Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) satellite developed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. It will also provide for many interesting and detailed studies of the distribution and evolution of thunderstorms and lightning in the Tennessee Valley, and will offer many interesting comparisons with other meteorological/geophysical wets associated with lightning and thunderstorms. In order to take full advantage of these benefits, it is essential that the LMA channel mapping accuracy (in both space and time) be fully characterized and optimized. In this study, a new revised channel mapping retrieval algorithm is introduced. The algorithm is an extension of earlier work provided in Koshak and Solakiewicz (1996) in the analysis of the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system. As in the 1996 study, direct algebraic solutions are obtained by inverting a simple linear system of equations, thereby making computer searches through a multi-dimensional parameter domain of a Chi-Squared function unnecessary. However, the new algorithm is developed completely in spherical Earth-centered coordinates (longitude, latitude, altitude), rather than in the (x, y, z) cartesian coordinates employed in the 1996 study. Hence, no mathematical transformations from (x, y, z) into spherical coordinates are required (such transformations involve more numerical error propagation, more computer program coding, and slightly more CPU computing time). The new algorithm also has a more realistic definition of source altitude that accounts for Earth oblateness (this can become important for sources that are hundreds of kilometers away from the network). In addition, the new algorithm is being applied to analyze computer simulated LMA datasets in order to obtain detailed location/time retrieval error maps for sources in and around the LMA network. These maps will provide a more comprehensive analysis of retrieval errors for LMA than the 1996 study did of LDAR retrieval errors. Finally, we note that the new algorithm can be applied to LDAR, and essentially any other multi-station TWA network that depends on direct line-of-site antenna excitation.

Koshak, William↗

NASA NTRS2002

Thunderstorms Characteristics Observed By TRMM

The goal of the present study is to begin a more comprehensive examination of the spectrum of storm types and their attributes worldwide, and as a function of season, location, and convective regime using the observed lightning, microwave scattering, and reflectively signatures. A global, multi-year data set (1998-2000) is being assembled to further our understanding of convective processes in different climatological regimes. We find that the deepest thunderstorms (having reflectively in excess of 50 dBZ at 9 km altitude) occur in all the sub-tropical continents and occasionally over the open ocean. The most intense storms have the greatest lightning rates, lowest brightness temperatures and greatest depth of reflectively-all indicative of strong updrafts and a well-developed volume of precipitation-sized ice particles.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate

A key question is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectivity of snow is the most important process by which snow cover can impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. The results to date were obtained for model runs with present-day conditions. We are currently analyzing runs made with projected forcings for the 21st century to see if these results are modified in any way under likely scenarios of future climate change. An intriguing new statistical technique involving 'clustering' is developed to assist in this analysis.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Using TRMM Data To Understand Interannual Variations In the Tropical Water Balance

A significant element of the science rationale for TRMM centered on assembling rainfall data needed to validate climate models-- climatological estimates of precipitation, its spatial and temporal variability, and vertical modes of latent heat release. Since the launch of TRMM, a great interest in the science community has emerged for quantifying interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and its relationship to sea-surface temperature (SST) changes. The fact that TRMM has sampled one strong warm/ cold ENSO couplet, together with the prospect for a mission lifetime approaching ten years, has bolstered this interest in these longer time scales. Variability on a regional basis as well as for the tropics as a whole is of concern. Our analysis of TRMM results so far has shown surprising lack of concordance between various algorithms in quantifying IAV of precipitation. The first objective of this talk is to quantify the sensitivity of tropical precipitation to changes in SSTs. We analyze performance of the 3A11, 3A25, and 3B31 algorithms and investigate their relationship to scattering-- based algorithms constructed from SSM/I and TRMM 85 kHz data. The physical basis for the differences (and similarities) in depicting tropical oceanic and land rainfall will be discussed. We argue that scattering-based estimates of variability constitute a useful upper bound for precipitation variations. These results lead to the second question addressed in this talk-- How do TRMM precipitation / SST sensitivities compare to estimates of oceanic evaporation and what are the implications of these uncertainties in determining interannual changes in large-scale moisture transport? We summarize results of an analysis performed using COADS data supplemented by SSM/I estimates of near-surface variables to assess evaporation sensitivity to SST. The response of near 5 W sq m/K is compared to various TRMM precipitation sensitivities. Implied moisture convergence over the tropics and its sensitivity to errors of these algorithms is discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Spatial Metadata for Global Change Investigations Using Remote Sensing

Satellite and aircraft-borne remote sensors have gathered petabytes of data over the past 30+ years. These images are an important resource for establishing cause and effect relationships between human-induced land cover changes and alterations in climate and other biophysical patterns at local to global scales. However, the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics of these datasets vary, thus complicating long-term studies involving several types of imagery. As the geographical and temporal coverage, the spectral and spatial resolution, and the number of individual sensors increase, the sheer volume and complexity of available data sets will complicate management and use of the rapidly growing archive of earth imagery. Mining this vast data resource for images that provide the necessary information for climate change studies becomes more difficult as more sensors are launched and more imagery is obtained.

Emerson, Charles W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

GOES Cloud Detection at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center

The bi-spectral threshold (BTH) for cloud detection and height assignment is now operational at NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC). This new approach is similar in principle to the bi-spectral spatial coherence (BSC) method with improvements made to produce a more robust cloud-filtering algorithm for nighttime cloud detection and subsequent 24-hour operational cloud top pressure assignment. The method capitalizes on cloud and surface emissivity differences from the GOES 3.9 and 10.7-micrometer channels to distinguish cloudy from clear pixels. Separate threshold values are determined for day and nighttime detection, and applied to a 20-day minimum composite difference image to better filter background effects and enhance differences in cloud properties. A cloud top pressure is assigned to each cloudy pixel by referencing the 10.7-micrometer channel temperature to a thermodynamic profile from a locally -run regional forecast model. This paper and supplemental poster will present an objective validation of nighttime cloud detection by the BTH approach in comparison with previous methods. The cloud top pressure will be evaluated by comparing to the NESDIS operational CO2 slicing approach.

Laws, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Most Extreme Thunderstorms on Earth

This study presents a comprehensive examination of the spectrum of storm types and their attributes worldwide (between 35N and 35S latitude), and as a function of season, location, and convective regime using the observed lightning, microwave scattering, and reflectivity signatures from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) low-Earth orbiting observatory. A global, multi-year data set (1998-2000) indicates that the deepest thunderstorms (having reflectivity in excess of 50 dBZ at 9 km altitude) occur in all the sub-tropical continents and occasionally over the open ocean, but are most common over the Americas. The most intense storms have the greatest lightning rates, lowest brightness temperatures and greatest depth of reflectivity- all indicative of strong updrafts and a well-developed volume of precipitation-sized ice particles. Mesoscale convective systems occurring within or in association with forcing from the sub-tropical continents are the most prolific lightning producers. The greatest flash rate to date of 993 flashes per minute was observed by NASA's Lightning Imaging Sensor on May 6, 1999 during an overpass of a pre-frontal squall line extending from Tennessee to Louisiana. The global distribution and frequency of thunderstorms, and the most recent summary of the extreme storms observed from space, in particular, will be discussed in greater detail.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Urban Climatology

This section on Urban Climates provides a basic understanding of what comprises the urban climate and what factors control the overall development of the urban climate. We also discuss in this section, methods for evaluating urban climate characteristics and forcing functions as well as how the urban heat island effect comes into play as a dynamic influence on urban climatology. Additionally, we examine and discuss the major radiation and energy balance of city (i.e., shortwave and longwave radiation, albedo, net all-wave radiation, total energy balance, and sensible latent, and storage heat) and the interactions of these energy balances with the lower atmosphere. The use of remote sensing to measure urban surface temperatures as a driving force in the development of the urban heat island effect is presented. We also discuss how the overall moisture, precipitation, humidity, and air movement in cities (i,e,, wind speeds and wind direction) and wind environment of the city affects urban climatology.

Brazel, Anthony J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The NASA Thunderstorm Observations and Research (ThOR) Mission: Lightning Mapping from Space to Improve the Short-term Forecasting of Severe Storms

The ThOR mission uses a lightning mapping sensor in geostationary Earth orbit to provide continuous observations of thunderstorm activity over the Americas and nearby oceans. The link between lightning activity and cloud updrafts is the basis for total lightning observations indicating the evolving convective intensification and decay of storms. ThOR offers a national operational demonstration of the utility of real-time total lightning mapping for earlier and more reliable identification of potentially severe and hazardous storms. Regional pilot projects have already demonstrated that the dominance in-cloud lightning and increasing in-cloud lash rates are known to precede severe weather at the surface by tens of minutes. ThOR is currently planned for launch in 2005 on a commercial or research satellite. Real-time data will be provided to selected NWS Weather Forecast Offices and National Centers (EMC/AWC/SPC) for evaluation.

Goodman, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Bridging the Gap Between Research and Operations in the National Weather Service: The Huntsville Model

The National Weather Service Office (WFO) in Huntsville, Alabama (HUN) is slated to begin full-time operations in early 2003. With the opening of the Huntsville WFO, a unique opportunity has arisen for close and productive collaboration with scientists at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). As a part of the collaboration effort, NASA has developed the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. The mission of the SPoRT center is to incorporate NASA earth science technology and research into the NWS operational environment. Emphasis will be on improving mesoscale and short-term forecasting in the first 24 hours of the forecast period. As part of the collaboration effort, the NWS and NASA will develop an implementation and evaluation plan to streamline the integration of the latest technologies and techniques into the operational forecasting environment. The desire of WFO HUN, NASA, and UAH is to provide a model for future collaborative activities between research and operational communities across the country.

Darden, C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The North Alabama Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring Network (STORMnet)

The Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring network (STORMnet) became operational in 2001 as a test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the severe and hazardous weather forecasting and warning process. STORMnet is collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, emergency managers and other partners. STORMnet integrates total lightning observations from a ten-station 3-D VHF regional lightning mapping array, the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), real-time regional NEXRAD Doppler radar, satellite visible and infrared imagers, and a mobile atmospheric profiling system to characterize storms and their evolution. The storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display (LISDAD II), a distributed processing system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of north Alabama and Tennessee, a region of the southeastern U.S. well known for abundant severe weather.

Goodman, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mapping The Ancient Maya Landscape From Space

The Peten region of northern Guatemala is one of the last places on earth where major archeological sites remain to be discovered. It was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared. Remote sensing technology is helping to locate and map ancient Maya sites that are threatened today by accelerating deforestation and looting. Thematic Mapper and IKONOS satellite and airborne Star3-I radar data, combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, are successfully detecting ancient Maya features such as cities, roadways, canals, and water reservoirs. Satellite imagery is also being used to map the bajos, which are seasonally flooded swamps that cover over 40% of the land surface. The use of bajos for farming has been a source of debate within the professional community for many years. But the recent detection and verification of cultural features within the bajo system by our research team are providing conclusive evidence that the ancient Maya had adapted well to wetland environments from the earliest times and utilized them until the time of the Maya collapse. The use of the bajos for farming is also an important resource for the future of the current inhabitants who are experiencing rapid population growth. Remote sensing imagery is also demonstrating that in the Preclassic period (600 BC- AD 250), the Maya had already achieved a high organizational level as evidenced by the construction of massive temples and an elaborate inter-connecting roadway system. Although they experienced several setbacks such as droughts and hurricanes, the Maya nevertheless managed the delicate forest ecosystem successfully for several centuries. However, around AD 800, something happened to the Maya to cause their rapid decline and eventual disappearance from the region. The evidence indicates that at this time there was increased climatic dryness, extensive deforestation, overpopulation, and widespread warfare. This raises a question that is relevant to the contemporary world-namely, how severe do internal stresses in a civilization have to become before relatively minor climate shifts can trigger a widespread cultural collapse?

Sever, Tom↗

NASA NTRS2002

Convection and Easterly Wave Structure Observed in the Eastern Pacific Warm-Pool during EPIC-2001

During September-October 2001, the East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC-2001) ITCZ field campaign focused on studies of deep convection in the warm-pool region of the East Pacific. In addition to the TAO mooring array, observational platforms deployed during the field phase included the NOAA ship RN Ronald H. Brown, the NSF ship RN Horizon, and the NOAA P-3 and NCAR C-130 aircraft. This study combines C-band Doppler radar, rawinsonde, and surface heat flux data collected aboard the RN Brown to describe ITCZ convective structure and rainfall statistics in the eastern Pacific as a function of 3-5 day easterly wave phase. Three distinct easterly wave passages occurred during EPIC-2001. Wind and thermodynamic data reveal that the wave trough axes exhibited positively correlated U and V winds and a slight westward phase tilt with height. A relatively strong (weak) northeasterly deep tropospheric shear followed the trough (ridge) axis. Temperature and humidity perturbations exhibited mid-to upper level cooling (warming) and drying (moistening) in the northerly (trough and southerly) phase. At low levels warming (cooling) occurred in the northerly (southerly) phase with little change in the relative humidity, though mixed layer mixing ratios were larger during the northerly phase. When composited, radar, sounding, lightning and surface heat flux observations suggest the following systematic behavior as a function of wave phase: approximately zero to one quarter wavelength ahead of (behind) the wave trough in northerly (southerly) flow, larger (smaller) CAPE, lower (higher) CIN, weaker (stronger) tropospheric shear, higher (lower) conditional mean rain rates, higher (lower) lightning flash densities, and more (less) robust convective vertical structure occurred. Latent and sensible heat fluxes reached a minimum in the northerly phase and then increased through the trough, reaching a peak during the ridge phase (leading the peak in CAPE). From a radar echo coverage perspective, larger areas of light rain and slightly larger (10%) area averaged rain rates occurred in the vicinity of, and just behind, the trough axes in southerly flow. Importantly, the transition in convective structure observed across the trough axis when considered with the relatively small change in area mean rain rates suggests the presence of a transition in the vertical structure of diabatic heating across the easterly waves examined. The inferred transition in heating structure is supported by radar diagnosed divergence profiles that exhibit convective (stratiform) characteristics ahead of (behind) the trough.

Peterson, Walter A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Simulation of the Climate of South-West Asia with a Regional Model

The ability of the regional model RegCM2 to simulate the climate of South-West Asia is examined. The climate of the region displays high spatial, seasonal and interannual variability, providing a strong test of climate model capabilities. RegCM2 captures the spatial variability of temperature and precipitation despite cold biases being present in the model. RegCM2 does not capture the annual cycle of precipitation on the Black and Caspian Sea coasts where very steep topography exists, nor on the eastern Mediterranean coast where the coastal mountains are not resolvable. RegCM2 does capture the seasonal cycle in the Fertile Crescent and Zagros mountains, where it is strongly influenced by a plateau circulation above the Iranian plateau. It is shown that accurate simulation of precipitation in these regions, including the inter-annual variability, requires the correct simulation of both storm tracks and topographic interactions. Through the use of regional climate models the concentration and transport pathways of water vapor through the Middle East can be explored. The results demonstrate that short lived 'events' have little impact on monthly mean atmospheric fields yet provide a significant amount of the precipitated water which flows in the Tigris river.

Evans, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Land Surface Temperature Retrievals from GOES-8 Using Emissivities Retrieved from MODIS

Recent studies at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) have shown that the assimilation of land skin temperature (LST) tendencies into a mesoscale model can significantly improve short-term forecasts of near surface air temperature and moisture. Derived land surface products from the GOES satellites were used in these studies to provide high spatial and temporal resolution information about the spatial and temporal variability of the land surface forcing simulated in the model. In the model assimilation studies, LST was derived using a split window technique using the 11 and 12 pm channels found on the GOES-8 Sounder. These studies used a constant surface emissivity of 0.98 for both channels. However, this emissivity assumption over the land does not take into account emissivity variations due to varying terrain characteristics and differences between channels. These emissivity variations are seen to be significant as indicated by emissivity products from the polar orbiting MODIS instrument channels similar to the GOES-8 Sounder channels mentioned above. MODIS is a key instrument aboard the Terra (EOS AM) and Aqua (EOS PM) satellites. In an attempt to improve the emissivity assumptions used in the GOES Sounder LST retrieval procedure, the incorporation of MODIS high spatial resolution (1 km) emissivity measurements into the LST procedure is being explored. This paper intercompares the LST retrievals from the GOES-8 Sounder using a constant emissivity assumption with those using MODIS retrieved emissivities. The effects of MODIS emissivities on the LST retrievals are discussed. Potential improvements in model forecasts using assimilated LST products incorporating MODIS emissivities are also examined.

Arnold, James E.↗