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Arik Posner

Publications and source records attributed to Arik Posner.

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2025

Mars Ground Level Enhancements in the Context of the Solar Energetic Particle Clock

In this work we discuss the growing ensemble of solar particle events registered on the Martian surface, including their temporal appearance and solar sources. Solar energetic particle events from the surface of Mars have been observed starting soon after the August 2012 landing of the Radiation Assessment Detector onboard Curiosity. The Martian atmosphere prevents protons and heavy ions of up to 180 MeV/n kinetic energy from directly reaching the Martian surface. This cut-off is high enough to limit the number of solar energetic particle events measured on the surface to only 15 in ~12 ½ years. Yet we find in this analysis that Mars ground level enhancements follow the distinct SEP clock pattern as proton events observed at lower energies as reported in Posner, Richardson and Strauss (2024). Proton acceleration occurs predominantly near the solar surface, while transport to Mars incurs a delay in onset, and, as we show here, peak, that is a function of the longitudinal magnetic connection distance. between the foot point of solar wind magnetic field lines that intersect the Mars environment with the source longitude of the solar magnetic eruption. A distinct clustering of relative solar source locations at or near the Mars foot points at the Sun’s western limb is apparent, indicating lower flux thresholds from such preferred locations. Our findings have implications for astronaut safety at Mars.

Mars Ground Level Enhancements↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advancing Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting

With growing interest from the aviation and satellite industries, and for NASA’s upcoming Artemis lunar missions, the need for improved scientific understanding and accurate forecasting of solar energetic particle events has never been stronger. In this paper we discuss the observational, validation and model transition support required to achieve these goals. Well-calibrated, high-quality energetic electron, proton, and ion measurements are essential. Expansions to the fields of view offered by current X-ray, extreme ultraviolet and coronagraph instruments, to obtain increased coverage of the solar corona and heliosphere, from vantage points off the Sun-Earth line, are desired for model input. New observations of suprathermal particles are needed to characterize seed particle distributions and low latency space-based observations of solar radio emissions are also desired. Together, this observational suite should offer high cadence, low latency, reliable and accurate space weather data streams. Consistent, extensive and quantitative model validation is required to assess scientific advancements and pave the way for models transitioning to real-time forecast operations. Model performance and skill should be compared to observations and to current operational forecasting baselines. Finally, resources are required to support the significant effort of transitioning mature models into forecast operations.

solar energetic particles↗
NASA NTRS2019

Probing the Energetic Particle Environment near the Sun

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe mission1 recently plunged through the inner heliosphere of the Sun to its perihelia, about 24 million kilometres from the Sun. Previous studies farther from the Sun (performed mostly at a distance of 1 astronomical unit) indicate that solar energetic particles are accelerated from a few kiloelectronvolts up to near-relativistic energies via at least two processes: ‘impulsive’ events, which are usually associated with magnetic reconnection in solar flares and are typically enriched in electrons, helium-3 and heavier ions2, and ‘gradual’ events3,4, which are typically associated with large coronal-mass-ejection-driven shocks and compressions moving through the corona and inner solar wind and are the dominant source of protons with energies between 1 and 10 megaelectronvolts. However, some events show aspects of both processes and the electron–proton ratio is not bimodally distributed, as would be expected if there were only two possible processes5. These processes have been very difficult to resolve from prior observations, owing to the various transport effects that affect the energetic particle population en route to more distant spacecraft6. Here we report observations of the near-Sun energetic particle radiation environment over the first two orbits of the probe. We find a variety of energetic particle events accelerated both locally and remotely including by corotating interaction regions, impulsive events driven by acceleration near the Sun, and an event related to a coronal mass ejection. We provide direct observations of the energetic particle radiation environment in the region just above the corona of the Sun and directly explore the physics of particle acceleration and transport.

D J Mccomas↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Heliospheric energetic particle transport: Analysis of near-field-aligned particle propagation for SEP events observed by Wind and MAVEN

Magnetic field alignments of spacecraft over large distances in the heliosphere are rare and are usually very limited in duration. Cruise phases of planetary transfers, however, are an exception to this rule, given the Hohmann-Parker effect. The transfer of the MAVEN s/c in 2014 is one such example. Multiple (~10) solar particle events occurred and were detected at both MAVEN and the Wind s/c, originating from solar activity near the foot points of both s/c. We show initial analysis results of the data collected by the solar wind and energetic particle instruments on both s/c while they were more than 0.2 AU apart, but practically Parker field aligned. Using a 1D model, we present initial simulations in qualitative agreement with energetic electron measurements. Next step is to implement the 2D model with approximate particle release from the Sun, and transport durations between Sun, Earth, and MAVEN. We will discuss implications for this data-model comparison, including the possibility to constrain particle scattering inside 1 AU, as well as its radial dependence between Earth and MAVEN.

Solar Energetic Particles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Solar Wind Defines Space Weather Safety Zones

During the ARTEMIS era, humans again will venture beyond the protection of the Earth’s atmosphere and magnetosphere into the solar wind. It is now well established that the solar wind is responsible for carving out a cavity in cosmic ray flux in the inner heliosphere. The resulting reduction in blood-forming organ dose rate basically enables human exploration. Lesser known or acknowledged is the important role the solar wind plays in shaping the directivity and extents of solar energetic particle events. This influence leads to an effective offset of the source location of the Sun that has the most potential to harm explorers through radiation exposure from major solar eruptions. This presentation will discuss how the solar wind influence renders current measures ineffective but instead demands new and immediate strategies to protect human explorers over the first decades of ARTEMIS exploration missions.

exploration↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impacts of Non-Simultaneous Global Photospheric Magnetic Measurements on Coronal and Solar Wind Modeling

The intensity and arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be significantly influenced by the background solar wind encountered as they propagate outward from the Sun into the interplanetary medium. In addition, solar energetic particles (SEPs) race ahead of CME shock fronts and flare regions along magnetic field lines largely determined by the background solar wind. Predicting the solar wind accurately is therefore critical for improving forecasts of CMEs, SEPs, and high-speed streams. Modeling of the corona and solar wind is challenging in general, as it is highly dependent on global photospheric magnetic field maps, which serve as the boundary conditions to all coronal models that drive solar wind models. Unfortunately, less than half of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field is reliably measured from any given vantage point and thus it is common for the maps to have highly dated and unreliable measurements in them. While Solar Obiter (SolO) now provides for the first time the opportunity to have simultaneous measurements of nearly the entire surface magnetic field of Sun (e.g., when SolO/PHI measurements are combined with those from SDO/HMI), the required alignment to accomplish this occurs only occasionally. Further, coronal models are extremely sensitive to the strengths of the polar magnetic fields of the Sun, which remain poorly observed. Recently, efforts to mitigate this problem include using flux transport models such as the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model, which evolves the field forward in time using well known transport processes occurring on the Sun. However, it cannot account for the emergence of new magnetic flux without direct observations. The ESA VIGIL mission will eventually provide continuous observations from the L5, and the proposed SunCHASER mission will likewise do this at the L4 vantage point should it be funded. Ultimately, what is needed is a constellation of spacecraft distributed around the Sun with magnetographs that continuously measure the global surface magnetic field. In this talk, we discuss how the lack of simultaneous global measurements of the photospheric magnetic field adversely impacts the predictive performance of coronal and solar wind models.

C. Nick Arge↗