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Anghel, Marian

Publications and source records attributed to Anghel, Marian.

Data-Driven Learning for the Mori--Zwanzig Formalism: A Generalization of the Koopman Learning Framework

A theoretical framework which unifies the conventional Mori--Zwanzig formalism and the approximate Koopman learning of deterministic dynamical systems from noiseless observation is presented. In this framework, the Mori--Zwanzig formalism, developed in statistical mechanics to tackle the hard problem of construction of reduced-order dynamics for high-dimensional dynamical systems, can be considered as a natural generalization of the Koopman description of the dynamical system. We next show that, similar to the approximate Koopman learning methods, data-driven methods can be developed for the Mori--Zwanzig formalism with Mori's linear projection operator. We have developed two algorithms to extract the key operators, the Markov and the memory kernel, using time series of a reduced set of observables in a dynamical system. We have adopted the Lorenz `96 system as a test problem and solved for the above operators. These operators exhibit complex behaviors, which are unlikely to be captured by traditional modeling approaches in Mori--Zwanzig analysis. The nontrivial generalized fluctuation-dissipation relationship, which relates the memory kernel with the two-time correlation statistics of the orthogonal dynamics, was numerically verified as a validation of the solved operators. Here we present numerical evidence that the generalized Langevin equation, a key construct in the Mori--Zwanzig formalism, is more advantageous in predicting the evolution of the reduced set of observables than the conventional approximate Koopman operators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Multi-Scale Inference, Estimation, and Prediction Engine for Earth System Modeling

We posit that AI methods can be leveraged to significantly enhance the predictive skill of forward Earth system modeling (ESM) activities. A hybrid framework incorporating traditional ESM modeling, inference methods, and AI techniques could make better use of both measured and computed information as well as computational resources by targeting inference tasks at program priorities, such as the predictability of precipitation extremes. This runtime pathway to closing the simulation/analysis-data/model improvement loop will streamline the traditional offline pathway to model improvement, which is based on domain science expertise, while suggesting guidance for further observations and measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interpretable Deep Learning for the Earth System with Fractal Nets

Focal Area 3: Explainable AI Our confidence in the projections made by Earth System Models (ESMs) depends on understanding them to be, in some important respects, faithful representations of the Earth system. Here we present an “explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI)” method that allows us to uncover the dynamical structure of the observed and modeled Earth system, discover hidden links across wide spatiotemporal scales, target model development efforts at poorly-represented dynamics, and optimize observed or modeled data collection to maximize predictive information. Science Challenge: Dynamical system science for the Earth system poses unique challenges given the large degree of internal climate variability. Thus, tools that help us understand how ESMs succeed and fail at representing these dynamics are crucial, particularly in relation to the observed system. Furthermore, the computational and memory constraints on ESM data output motivate in situ analysis of ESM dynamics, including automatic detection of dynamical shifts. Also, of key importance are procedures that leverage ESMs to optimize observational campaigns for improving process representation, reducing structural uncertainty and improving model skill.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale Reduced Order Modeling and Parameter Estimation for Climate Sciences

Several problems in earth system modeling are dependent on highly multiscale phenomena, such as turbulence, where computational modeling is challenging and expensive. This issue is exacerbated in atmospheric and oceanic domains, due to inherent high-dimensionality of the problem. One approach to this problem has been reduced order modeling (ROM); which aims to represent the key physics of the phenomena as a low-dimensional system. AI methods have huge potential in building accurate, stable ROMs and parameter estimation for these ROMs, as it requires extracting nonlinearities and patterns from simulation and/or observational data. Developing physics-based AI approaches specialized for the complexities of multiscale data, along with strategies to account for uncertainties, will revolutionize rapid modeling, analysis and decision making for earth system problems of practical interest.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Transfer Operator Framework for Earth System Predictability and Water Cycle Extremes

For chaotic dynamical systems, nonlinear instabilities lead to exponentially divergent trajectories in the evolution of system states. Unless a simulation is initialized with an infinite-precision snapshot of the state of the true system and all known physical effects that go into its evolution are directly computed, the future state predicted by the simulation will quickly diverge from that of the true system. Moreover, the Earth system is highly structured and contains localized coherent structures that are particularly important to predict. Predicting extreme events associated with coherent structures, like hurricanes and blocking events, is crucial for understanding the effects of global warming on the water cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transfer Operator Framework for Earth System Predictability and Water Cycle Extremes

For chaotic dynamical systems, nonlinear instabilities lead to exponentially divergent trajectories in the evolution of system states. Unless a simulation is initialized with an infinite-precision snapshot of the state of the true system and all known physical effects that go into its evolution are directly computed, the future state predicted by the simulation will quickly diverge from that of the true system. Moreover, the Earth system is highly structured and contains localized coherent structures that are particularly important to predict. Predicting extreme events associated with coherent structures, like hurricanes and blocking events, is crucial for understanding the effects of global warming on the water cycle.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗