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Angell, J. K.

Publications and source records attributed to Angell, J. K..

North Atlantic Surface Winds Examined as the Source of Warm Advection into Europe in Winter

When from the southwest, North Atlantic ocean surface winds are known to bring warm and moist airmasses into central Europe in winter. By tracing backward trajectories from western Europe, we establish that these airmasses originate in the southwestern North Atlantic, in the very warm regions of the Gulf Stream. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Lt the gateway to Europe, the ocean-surface winds changed directions in the second half of the XXth century, those from the northwest and from the southeast becoming so infrequent, that the direction from the southwest became even more dominant. For the January-to-March period, the strength of south-westerlies in this region, as well as in the source region, shows in the years 1948-1995 a significant increase, above 0.2 m/sec/ decade. Based on the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Europe, slightly more than 1 C for a 1m/sec increase in the southwesterly wind, found in the previous studies, the trend in the warm advection accounts for a large part of the warming in Europe established for this period in several reports. However, for the most recent years, 1996-2001, the positive trend in the southwesterly advection appears to be is broken, which is consistent with unseasonally cold events reported in Europe in those winters. This study had, some bearing on evaluating the respective roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Greenhouse Gas Global warming, GGG, in the strong winter warming observed for about half a century over the northern-latitude continents. Changes in the ocean-surface temperatures induced by GGG may have produced the dominant southwesterly direction of the North Atlantic winds. However, this implies a monotonically (apart from inherent interannual variability) increasing advection, and if the break in the trend which we observe after 1995 persists, this mechanism is counter-indicated. The 1948-1995 trend in the south-westerlies could then be considered to a large degree attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Otterman, J.

The Extremely Warm Early Winter 2000 in Europe: What is the Forcing

High variability characterizes the winter climate of central Europe: interannual fluctuations in the surface-air temperature as large as 18 C over large areas are fairly common. The extraordinary early-winter 2000 in Europe appears to be a departure to an unprecedented extreme of the existing climate patterns. Such anomalous events affect agriculture, forestry, fuel consumption, etc., and thus deserve in-depth analysis. Our analysis indicates that the high anomalies of the surface-air temperature are predominantly due to the southwesterly flow from the eastern North Atlantic, with a weak contribution by southerly flow from the western Mediterranean. Backward trajectories based on the SSM/I and NCEP Reanalysis datasets traced from west-central Europe indicate that the warm air masses flowing into Europe originate in the southern North Atlantic, where the surface-air temperatures exceed by 15c or more the climatic norms in Europe for late-November or early-December. Because such large ocean-to-continent temperature differences characterize the winter conditions, we refer to this episode which started in late November as occurring in the early winter. In this season, with the sun low over the horizon in Europe, absorption of insolation by the surface has little significance. The effect of cloudiness, a corollary to the low-level maritime-air advection, is a warming by a reduction of heat loss (greenhouse effect). In contrast, in the summer, clouds, by reducing absorption of insolation, produce a cooling, effect at the surface.

Otterman, J.

Monthly mean distribution of ozone and temperature

Global monthly mean charts for both hemispheres are given for four mid-season months, and for the pressure levels 30, 10, 1, and 0.1 mbar for temperature and 0.4 mbar for ozone. Charts of total ozone are provided separately. This set of charts shows clearly the very close coupling between the temperature and ozone distributions and demonstrates the influence of the large-scale planetary waves which give rise to very large longitudinal variations. The regular and interannual variability of temperature and ozone are discussed.

Labitzke, K.

On the adequacy of the fixed locations of the surface-based international network for inferring interannual ozone variability

The influence of the geographical distribution and the number of the surface stations in the ozone detecting network on changes in global ozone inferred from the surface measurements is investigated by comparison with information obtained from satellite backscattered UV observations on the Nimbus 4 with nearly complete global coverage for the period 1970-1972. Results show that the geographical distribution of the stations does not properly represent different latitudes. While the number of stations in the north temperate zone appears adequate to represent monthly ozone averages to within 0.5% except during the early phase of the Northern Hemisphere spring maximum, the resultant error in the derived change in north temperature zone ozone between 1970-1972 is 0.5%. In the tropical and south temperate zones the smaller number of stations reduces precision, and the ozone averages for use in deriving seasonal variability and trends are uncertain by about 1%. However, in the south temperature zone, the average from the sample may differ as much as 5% in some months from the averages derived from the full set. It is concluded that the resulting uncertainty in the global averages is comparable in size to typical yearly changes.

Heath, D. F.

Tropical waves and the quasi-biennial oscillation in the lower stratosphere

By means of spectrum analysis of 11 years of lower stratospheric daily winds and temperatures at Balboa, Ascension and Canton-Singapore, evidence is presented supporting the existence of two principal wave modes with periods of about 11-17 days (Kelvin waves) and about 4-5 days (mixed Rossby-gravity waves). The structure of the two wave modes, as well as the vertical eddy momentum flux by the waves, is shown to be related to the quasi-biennial cycle, although for the mixed Rossby-gravity waves this is obvious only at Ascension. In addition, the Coriolis term, suggested as a source of vertical easterly momentum flux for the mixed Rossby-gravity waves, is investigated and found to be of the same magnitude as the vertical eddy flux term. Finally, we have examined the mean meridional motion and the meridional eddy momentum flux for its possible association with the quasi- biennial variation.

Miller, A. J.

Possible effects on the stratosphere of the 1963 Mt. Agung volcanic eruption.

Previous studies of atmospheric pollution resulting from the 1963 eruption of Mt. Agung have shown that the volcanic dust caused temperature increases in the lower stratosphere over Australia. The present study provides time series of monthly-mean lower stratospheric temperatures for eight tropical stations on both sides of the equator. The data have been smoothed by taking 12-month running means. The results suggest that any effect of the eruption may be impossible to isolate. Some features of the quasi-biennial oscillation in zonal winds and temperatures are pointed out which must be considered in any attempt to explain the peculiarities in the curves of monthly mean temperatures.

Mcinturff, R. M.